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cj
01-26-2003, 10:49 AM
Bread and butter near bottom platers, lets take it horse by horse.

2-Dr. Can Do: 3rd off a brief freshening and claim. He ran tough last time at 2/3 the claim price. I'm skeptical as the trainer has been red hot, but doesn't seem to have the answer with this guy.

3-Super Size: This guy was an AE scratched out of a 10K claimer in the nightcap Friday. Ran a couple of good ones 3 and 4 back, but I think the trainer wasted this ones big shot in the allowance. Looks like he wants a quick sale here and I'll pass.

4-Jumangi: Ex 'Chaser dropped into a sprint and flashed brief speed before chucking it. I see nothing to say this guy is ready to fire a big one off of that effort.

5-Brocco Gold Strike: Drops sharply off of a terrible return effort. He will take money as a Dutrow horse, so he'll offer value to the others.

1-Mr. United States: This guy runs the same race every time. I must use on exotic tix. I don't think he has the speed to get his picture taken.

6-Alarm Code: Hot over the summer at the Thumb, this guy tailed off. His best races give him a shot here, but I don't like Bobby K dropping him below the claim level already. Pass.

7-Entrepreneur: Originally drew some interest from me with a decent fig and being hung out wide, but the jock is terrible, and the trainer ice cold, so I'll look elsewhere.

8-Pirate's Gold: Another plunging, this guy for the 2nd time, off the claim. Chased a fast pace against better and this trainer is looking for the marbles today...big shot.

9-Mickey The Groom: No speed, terrible form, and to top it off, way too short for him. NO thanks.

10-Puncher: This horse will take a lot of money, but none of it mine. He draws a bad post for the inner oval, and his last race was BAD. The pace was real slow, he was unchallenged, yet he still folded up like a cheap tent. I know 1m is not his thing, but this horse just didn't look good at all in the flesh. I'd keep a close eye on him in the post parade.

11-Vincent De Paul: Shown absolutely nothing in this country, lets send him back to Chile, or at the very least, Finger Lakes.

12-Marchand Volant: This horse clearly headed in the wrong direction. Big race off the claim, suspiciouslly dropped, layed off, now a big tumble. No thanks on him either.

1A-Icebreaker: Twice beaten favorite lays off after a real stinker, one good work in the morning to indicate he's may have recovered some of that August form. Then again, if he had, he wouldn't be in for 12.5.

13-Warm April: Obvious factor if he draws in, trainer is RED hot. Post will probably do him in if he sneaks into the field.

As always near the bottom, the capping is ultra tough. I'm going with:

8-2-13-1

CJ

Suff
01-26-2003, 11:26 AM
could be just the #'s... and I suppose it is... But a quick early peak into the Double pools... shows the 8-8 double combination has early money... I suppose that double will pay near $500.00 ,, But early on its paying $45.00

Suff
01-26-2003, 11:27 AM
oh btw... Great break down.. and thanks for taking the time to share your work.

NYRAcapper
01-26-2003, 12:07 PM
Hell of a tough race here. I'll tell you this much you better find a closer. Won't be hard there's only 4 of em in a 14 horse field. Here we go

#1 MR UNITED STATES
This guy is the LONE (pure) pace presser in the entire field giving him a distinct advantage against all of these speed balls. Castellano stays aboard which speaks volumes for the horses condition. If you look at this horses lifetime pp's I noticed that while he is pretty consistent on an off track he doesn't seem to move on the turn like he usually does. I'm gonna excuse that last race on that basis. This guy is a win contender, however not my top choice-------------CONTENDER

#1A ICEBREAKER
Ran Friday and will SCRATCH here.

#2 DR. CAN DO
This one suprised me with that last effort guess I shoulds seen it coming but with Toscano named to ride I figured the horse was just gonna blow out for four furlongs and stop. Instead the horse was fully primed and almost beat my top choice the other day. Make no mistake that last was this horses best effort and I see him regressing a bit today---------------TOSS

#3 SUPER SIZE
Want a viable longshot this guy could be the one. Ton of speed in this race and by my figs this guy is the speed of the speed---albeit by a narrow margin. On that basis alone he would be worth a play at his 12-1 MLO, but wait there's more. Trainer Krebs shows the following stats in the DRF
DIRT 170starts 24%win ROI $2.82
SPRINT 113 starts 29%win ROI$3.66
CLAIMING 136starts 24%win ROI$2.60
Those positive ROI's are no accident folks this guy is for real.
Want another bonus he names the #1 SPEED Jock CC Lopez to ride
Honestly I can't see him clearing all these speedballs but he does have the rail and if he breaks who knows------------------------
CONTENDER

#4 JUMANGI
Much as I predicted he ended his last still hurdling when everyone else crossed the line. Expect some improvement today as he may beat 3 horses LOL------------------TOSS

#5 BROCCO GOLD STRIKE
I hate it when DUTROW pulls this crap, throws my entire little handicapping world into complete chaos. Normally an automatic toss on that kind of class drop but not with Dutrow he wins with these pigs all the time at some JUICY 3-5 odds. This guys listed at 5-1 but if he gets bet somehow down to around 5-2 or 2-1 BEWARE cause he will probably run. The only good thing is that this fields full of speed and he's a speed horse. Wouldn't suprise me if DICKIE scratches him. He may win but I ain't betting him at less than 20-1------------------TOSS

#6 ALARM CODE
Very interesting horse, drops slightly below claimed price after a bow vs. 20k claimers on a muddy track Jan 8. Was only beaten by a neck by WARM APRIL in his previous and WARM APRIL will be a key contender today. Last race vs. better was a key effort though as he was wide on the turn while chasing the pace. Bridgmohan shut him down in time to save some horse for today but he still finished 4th out of 9. ----------------------BIG TIME CONTENDER

#7 ENTREPENEUR
Another one of the few closers in this race though this one is more of the deep closer variety. Last race kinda has the look of a prep for another race as this hoss is a deep closer and they had him 4 wide up on the pace. Should set him up for a big effort today. Would possibly be my top choice IF a different jock was named. Jock was 0-30 in 2002 and off to a flying 0-2 start this year. ----------------------TOSS for the WIN maybe underneath

#8 PIRATES GOLD
Want another longshot you say, well here it is. Trainer is hotter than hell this year so far 3-7 .43%. Want more OK;
DIRT 72starts 24%win ROI$3.90
SPRINT 45 starts 20% Win ROI$4.98
CLAIMING 35 starts 20%win ROI $2.14
Nice class drop and was close enough to the lead to expect an improved effort off that drop---------------LONGSHOT

#9 MICKEY THE GROOM
Want a 50-1 bomb for the third hole of your trifectas------this ones got about a 40% chance of getting third in my opinion although he has about a negative 40% chance of winning. Horse will be a deep closer and even with little or no effort is gonna pick quite a few of these off late------------TOSS for Win 3 hole tri's

#10 PUNCHER
Speedball in the 10 hole in a field full of speed. Also claimed from Dutrow. Haven't liked this horse since he fell by the wayside and see no reason to start now----------------TOSS

#11 VINCENT DE PAUL
Disappointed me last time out ans has no shot from this post-----------------------TOSS

#12 MARCHAND VOLAND
I don't like to see horses dropped in price off a layoff, even if it is a short one, but this is Dominic Galluscios horse and he's RED HOT too. Cannot toss on because of trainers merits alone. ----------------Marginal Contender

#13 WARM APRIL
Horse is razor sharp and so is his trainer. Has the right sytle for this and the race should set up for him, little concerned with the post as he could get marooned clear out there but still at 3-1 or better is------------THE CHOICE

WIN #13
TOP THREE #1 #6 #13

Exacta1-6/1-6-7-12-13

TRI 13/1-6-7-12/1-3-6-7-8-9-12

Suff
01-26-2003, 12:38 PM
[

As always near the bottom, the capping is ultra tough. I'm going with:

8-2-13-1

CJ [/B]

I dearly hope your right Today CJ... I played $5.00 dollar doubles

5,6,9,/8 But did'nt excata or tri the numbers.. they just ran 5-9-6 and I left a boat full of money on the table,.. Like to salvage the double

Its paying $386.00... Howzabout a quick G-note for the SUFF this morning?

cj
01-26-2003, 12:46 PM
I hope I'm right too, I'm alive for $3 in the Double, not a big bettor like you ;)...LOL.

CJ

Suff
01-26-2003, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I hope I'm right too, I'm alive for $3 in the Double, not a big bettor like you ;)...LOL.

CJ

I was Just in the mood yesterday... I had some winners during the week and my TVG account was pretty flush... I just counted my wagers from yesterday... 85 wagers!!! My general number of bets on any given Sat or sunday is about 18-30.... Yesterday I was a gunslinger and was really chucking... eneded the day down $180 bucks... Probably put 5 grand in play yesterday...
I genrally play between $30.00 and $60.00 bucks a race... Yesterday I was on the higher end most of the day.

Tee
01-26-2003, 12:57 PM
I liked Pirate's Gold & Alarm Code here in the 2nd.

Suff
01-26-2003, 01:03 PM
you playing in the warroom today T?

NYRAcapper
01-26-2003, 01:05 PM
Damn Dutrow I HATE that crap--Mark it down now I am never betting a race where he has this type of horse in. I cannot bet a horse like that even if it was running by itself. Had the damn thing as a contender by my #s but still tossed him .

joeprunes
01-27-2003, 01:01 PM
I had marked down the #5 in the first because of a trainer angle the trainer Lewis is 24% with horses 90 day or more away in the 2nd I had marked down #3,#5 because of angle plays the #3 has trainer Krebs with shippers 28% and the #5 has Dutrow with horses going down 2 classes at 39% ..the DD cold$160 and the cold EX $140. I usually go to OTB but I had some bussiness to tend to so I didn`t bet it. I hate it when that shit happens..jp