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View Full Version : expectation versus reality in Pick four wagering


1st time lasix
01-15-2008, 12:47 PM
I am still learning. Have hit a couple of nice ones in late 2007 thanks to a msw longshot I had covered. Wondering how you experienced horizontal players tackle this wager. How much do you spend {in 1 dollar increments} per ticket on average? Do you strive to avoid the favorite in the first leg or pass? Do you only play if you can identify a key "single"? Do you only play if the takeout percentage is low? When would you consider it a "pass" after handicapping your choices in each leg?

rrbauer
01-15-2008, 01:49 PM
review the plays at the p4-contest on the AQU inner track going on now (weekends and holidays).

This will give you an idea of what is being done with $200-or-less plays.

The best single piece of advice that I can give you is to make sure that the races that make up the P4 are races that you are good at handicapping and playing.

ceejay
01-15-2008, 01:55 PM
How much do you spend {in 1 dollar increments} per ticket on average? $50-100/play but multiple tickets $1-50 each Do you strive to avoid the favorite in the first leg or pass? usually, not always Do you only play if you can identify a key "single"? no Do you only play if the takeout percentage is low? no, but I am more likely to play low t/o's When would you consider it a "pass" after handicapping your choices in each leg?>=2 very likely solid favs; A race I cannot figure out. ..

Robert Fischer
01-15-2008, 02:05 PM
I want to hit it or set up a good hedge situation.

ManeMediaMogul
01-15-2008, 03:38 PM
I played for two years and hit many a signer. The problem with my play was, at the end of the year, with the amounts I was betting ($100 - $200)I could have done just as well betting my key horses (usually 5-1 or better) to win and place.

Now, I only play when I have a key horse and the other races are ultimately handicappable (five contenders or less with almost 100% chance of winning) or total scramble where I hit the all box.

This means only a few plays a month, but a much bigger ROI.