Fining conditioning is the key to success

[Equipik]

In my experience none of handicapping (real handicapping) is based on emotions (how you feel) or Beyer speed figures or trainer/jock statistics.

Finding the conditioned horse is what is important, especially when there is $150,000 in the pool on each race.

It is a fact that 85% of all horse bettors can not pick a horse, and would never put two full dollars on a 20-1 to WIN a race. The odds are set by a crowd that has no idea how to pick a horse, not someone with common sense (as the crowd believes).

I have made my living for 2 years now betting horse races at various tracks around the country. I have "given" 20-1 winners away at every stop telling the person to bet WIN/PLACE/SHOW straight bets when playing for money. To date, every one of those I gave a longshot winner to said in the end QUOTE" Yeah, I put him in my box bet with my other horses", but not once were their other horses right, so they missed a $50+ dollar profit for $2.

Sound familiar to anyone out there?

I am almost convinced to quit selling a professional handicapping course because I don't believe that bettors can overcome the idiocy of betting a Morning Line 2-1 favorite. They think these are picked by professional handicappers or something???

I have read so much dogma about how what I do for a living can't be done that it is rediculous. Does anyone really want to know "How to pick a Horse". or is it just all about picking which of the M/L picks at the bottom of a program will be there?

I would really like to know.

[whiteathame]

I think the public confuses the functions of an "oddsmaker" and a "handicapper". Couple that confusion with their general opinion that the favorites, the ones with the most money on them, are the best horses you can see that a a capper who is trying to educate the public has his hands full. Track programs that list the four lowest odds horses in sequence and call them "Handicapper's Selections," doesn't help. IMHO, education in Joe Takach's physicality handicapping techniques is a start in the right direction.






The more money bet on the horse the more likely he is to win! (I have yet to find a horse that can read the toteboard correctly.)

[nobeyerspls]

I am almost convinced to quit selling a professional handicapping course because I don't believe that bettors can overcome the idiocy of betting a Morning Line 2-1 favorite. They think these are picked by professional handicappers or something???

I have read so much dogma about how what I do for a living can't be done that it is rediculous. Does anyone really want to know "How to pick a Horse". or is it just all about picking which of the M/L picks at the bottom of a program will be there?

I would really like to know.

First of all welcome to the board. However, this thread confuses me. Do you actually drive from track to track giving away 20-1 winners? Do you give them to strangers or are people waiting anxiously for your visit so as to cash in?
When you said that 85% of bettors could not pick a horse I think you meant that they could not pick a winner. If the favorite wins at a 32% clip, some people are picking winners.
Did you expect that people who post on here would be influenced by the selections on the bottom of a program? Most never see a program and the great majority do not look at the selections of public handicappers. There are advanced handicappers on here exploiting strategies and methods learned over many years.
When you say that you are "almost convinced" to quit selling a handicapping course, why is that so? You may have noted that there are authorized advertisers on here so you need only contact the moderator to make your course available. A sure fire way to attract subscribers would be to post a few longshot winners in the selections section instead of driving around the country and giving them away.
I am interested in any method that can identify a live longshot as my strategy is to bet a little to win a lot. I'll be looking in the selections section for your post.

[the little guy]

I would be more inclined to believe this silliness if the author knew how to spell ridiculous.....especially considering he gave such a fine example of the word.

[njcurveball]

. I have "given" 20-1 winners away at every stop telling the person to bet WIN/PLACE/SHOW straight bets when playing for money. To date, every one of those I gave a longshot winner to said in the end QUOTE" Yeah, I put him in my box bet with my other horses", but not once were their other horses right, so they missed a $50+ dollar profit for $2.

Sound familiar to anyone out there?

.


Very familiar! This happened many times with the Sartin Group when we were approached due to the fact that the people saw a bunch of guys with laptops sitting together.

Often we were berated before the race for the longshots and after the race heard comments like "the horse was lucky to get 2nd", or "he was such long odds I only used him for 3rd with MY 2 horses.

I hope you are right about the 85%! This game is tough enough as it is. Imagine if EVERYONE wanted to learn how to read the racing program or use a good computer program!

[jotb]

In my experience none of handicapping (real handicapping) is based on emotions (how you feel) or Beyer speed figures or trainer/jock statistics.

Finding the conditioned horse is what is important, especially when there is $150,000 in the pool on each race.

It is a fact that 85% of all horse bettors can not pick a horse, and would never put two full dollars on a 20-1 to WIN a race. The odds are set by a crowd that has no idea how to pick a horse, not someone with common sense (as the crowd believes).

I have made my living for 2 years now betting horse races at various tracks around the country. I have "given" 20-1 winners away at every stop telling the person to bet WIN/PLACE/SHOW straight bets when playing for money. To date, every one of those I gave a longshot winner to said in the end QUOTE" Yeah, I put him in my box bet with my other horses", but not once were their other horses right, so they missed a $50+ dollar profit for $2.

Sound familiar to anyone out there?

I am almost convinced to quit selling a professional handicapping course because I don't believe that bettors can overcome the idiocy of betting a Morning Line 2-1 favorite. They think these are picked by professional handicappers or something???

I have read so much dogma about how what I do for a living can't be done that it is rediculous. Does anyone really want to know "How to pick a Horse". or is it just all about picking which of the M/L picks at the bottom of a program will be there?

I would really like to know.

Many people that go to the racetrack could care less about the handicapping part of it. They will bet on names, horse number, silk colors, birthdays and so on. The reason for this is because they don't want to learn because these types go to the races a couple of times a year at most and just want to have fun. I watch people wager just from the program handicapper and for those people that is their edge to the game. The people feel if they follow these selections they will get their moneys worth.

My brother used to go to the track with me frequently and would just bet on horses that I liked because he didn't have a clue. I tried to teach him how to read a program but basically he was not interested. For us it comes easy but for others horse lingo is all greek. I believe like anything else in life you have to have a love for something in order to learn and understand. I know for me when I was younger I rather have read a book about horse racing than any other book out there.

Joe

[SMOO]

Do you actually drive from track to track giving away 20-1 winners?

Of course, doesn't everyone do this? :rolleyes:

[DanG]

nobeyerspls ~ Do you actually drive from track to track giving away 20-1 winners? / SMOO ~ Of course, doesn't everyone do this? :rolleyes:
They do here...
http://elpistachoveloz.blogia.com/upload/twilight-zone.jpg