Non Bayesian Probabilities formerly Comprehensive Odds Line

[john messina]

Hi all,

The Comprehensive OddsLine will now be known as the Non Bayesian Probability Picks.

Charlestown is available

http://optimusracingnetwork.netfirms.com

I apology for calling this "thing" an oddsline.

Hey, I'm still learning. Someday I will have an oddsline. T'll then Non Bayesian Probabilities will have to do, unless I receive complaints. Then I'll call it "Numbers".

Also the Dark Horses will still be called Dark Horses, but think of them as my subjective picks.

Good luck to all

[DJofSD]

John, call it "Numb3rs" and I'll watch.

All joking aside, clicking on the link for GPX 1/11 results in my seeing some HTML:

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<table bgcolor="#000000" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="728">
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<a href="http://www.netfirms.com"><img alt="Free Web Hosting by Netfirms" align="absmiddle" border="0" src="/nf-images/Freewebhosting.gif" width="184" height="24"></a><br />
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<font size="2"><a href="http://www.netfirms.com">Web Hosting by <b>Netfirms</b></a> | <a href="http://www.netfirms.com/domain-names">Free Domain Names by <b>Netfirms</b></a></font>
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I'm not a web page designer but I don't think you meant to display all of that HTML code did you?

[GameTheory]

Looks like an oddsline to me. I think you can go ahead and call it that despite what Dave said. Maybe he needs to take a closer look. Just because some of your lines are quite lopsided doesn't make them invalid. In fact, making them as lopsided as possible while maintaining accuracy should be your goal.

[john messina]

John, call it "Numb3rs" and I'll watch.

All joking aside, clicking on the link for GPX 1/11 results in my seeing some HTML:

<!-- begin banner code -->

<table bgcolor="#000000" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="728">
<tr>
<td width="100%">
<table background="/nf-images/nf_back.gif" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" bgcolor="#E7E7E7">
<tr>

<td width="10%">
<a href="http://www.netfirms.com"><img alt="Free Web Hosting by Netfirms" align="absmiddle" border="0" src="/nf-images/Freewebhosting.gif" width="184" height="24"></a><br />
</td>

<td width="90%">

<font size="2"><a href="http://www.netfirms.com">Web Hosting by <b>Netfirms</b></a> | <a href="http://www.netfirms.com/domain-names">Free Domain Names by <b>Netfirms</b></a></font>
</td>

</tr>
</table>

</td>
</tr>
</table>

<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="728">
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<img src="/nf-images/freewebhosting.webhosting.asis" width="1" height="3"><br />

<!-- Start Creative for 728 x 90 format from Google -->

I'm not a web page designer but I don't think you meant to display all of that HTML code did you?[/QUOTE]

That's the free hosting service, netfirms, displaying the code. Even though you should see the text file below it. I can't afford a real server. Just kidding! I use netfirns, so that I can't be tracked.

[john messina]

Looks like an oddsline to me. I think you can go ahead and call it that despite what Dave said. Maybe he needs to take a closer look. Just because some of your lines are quite lopsided doesn't make them invalid. In fact, making them as lopsided as possible while maintaining accuracy should be your goal.

You can always count on someone with a handle, Game Theory, to say something intellectually honest. And dead on too. I like you.

[Dave Schwartz]

Oh, please.

[Robert Goren]

What is Non Bayesian Probability and how does it apply to picking horses?

[john messina]

Oh, please.

I had to visit your website. I must say it's impressive.

artificial intelligence, neural networks, competitor network, genetic algorithms,swarm intelligence, premier thinker... (possibly trained ants in there too)

Made me feel like I need a Ph.D in something to understand those terms. Imagine trying to actually comprehend the concepts, it would take a life-time.

"In 1994 he released The Handicappers Notebook. This program went through eight versions in DOS before being..." I can't imagine how I leave the house without on. And what is DOS..we in NY say DOSH.

"Schwartz's Pars are recognized as the de facto standard for track-to-track adjustments. His accompanying manuscript, Understanding Par Times, gives do-it-yourselfers a look at just how complex making good pars can be." Without a doubt I need this material... the de facto standard and I don't have a copy. No wonder I'm so ignorant.

And your software screenshot... looks more complicated than a NASA Command Center computer screen. Again I'm impressed...buttons, tabs, displays, etc... My eyes became itchy and my head said WTF is all this about!

Rich Valentines System, Chaos, Key To The Mint, Druthers Dangerous Favorites, Strong Early Speed, Horses With Strong Form, Strong Last Race, Hot Longshots, Automatic Odds Elim, Horses Significantly Overbet, Horses Ranked High In Three Or More Areas, Handicapping Rules For This Race, Wire To Wire Threats, One Approach To Form (And if that isn't enough), A Second Look At Form, Horses Eliminated For Class (oops, Should Be Eliminated For Class... we aren't really sure), Strong Early Speed, Horses With A Strong Last Race, (geeze and then back to form again) Horses With Strong Form, Early Speed Failures, Over/Under Bet vs Morning Line, and a few more. I'm exhausted!!!!

I can imagine a person starting a race on monday and betting it on tuesday and still be unsure about which horse to bet.

I feel so inferior to you (And I would surmise others may feel the same way). My output... a simple set of numbers. No DOS (Whatever that is). No fancy screens... just numbers. I nearly forgot I do use an old horse racing term Dark Horses..shame on me.

Now for the facts. you and I both know that Neurals don't work for horse racing... neither does any form of regression analysis (linear or non-linear)...It doesn't matter... if you let loose an entire colony of ants...train the network...and puff the game changes... adapt and re-adapt... add more nodes, remove others... it's like a dog chasing it's tail...it never seems to get there. Why not build a large decision tree and use a Simplex algorithm to obtain a optimum solution... at least I can give you credit for trying...OR SIMPLY USE MY NUMBERS FOR A WEEK...free of charge. My numbers are based on one FACTOR and I'll match my numbers against yours whenever you're ready. I'll announce mine daily. Oh I already have. Let the folks decide.

[GaryG]

John, if I were you I would leave Dave alone. He knows this game pretty well.

[Cheap Speed]

How about #'s TPX?


Earlier you said they were based on one number but is that one number comprised of several factors similar to BRIS and their Prime Power or HTR and the the K rating?

[john messina]

John, if I were you I would leave Dave alone. He knows this game pretty well.

Maybe I will let him be. When he provides me with a definition of an oddsline.

Take note of my signature.... now I'm entitled to talk about mathematica with conviction. No more games. If I posted my creditials, you'd be impressed.

[john messina]

How about #'s TPX?


Earlier you said they were based on one number but is that one number comprised of several factors similar to BRIS and their Prime Power or HTR and the the K rating?

One number, one factor per entry.

[DJofSD]

Please impress me.

[GaryG]

This is pitiful. You need hip boots to read this thread....

[PaceAdvantage]

If I posted my creditials, you'd be impressed.And that's what it comes down to in the end, eh? That's a shame.

[098poi]

Everyone watch this and it will all become clear!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JX3VmDgiFnY

[porkchop]

DID NOT REALIZE THAT BY USING MOBIAS TRANFORMATION YOU CAN GET AN EXACT REPLICA OF TWEETY BIRDS HEAD

[bigchump]

If I posted my creditials, you'd be impressed.

I'm impressed by people who cash more tickets on price horses than I do.

good luck
bigchump

[riskman]

DID NOT REALIZE THAT BY USING MOBIAS TRANFORMATION YOU CAN GET AN EXACT REPLICA OF TWEETY BIRDS HEAD


Or Elmer Fudd

[john messina]

Or Elmer Fudd

Is it possible to show that there exist a Mobius Transformation that can transform an underlay to overlay in a different dimension? If so, we can all retire happily!

[riskman]

What is your agenda? Here you are touting yourself as the expert in your ability to make a reasonably accurate betting line which will solve most of the selection and money management dilemmmas faced by horseplayers. Why go public with this information? Why use a the name "John Messina" (pseudonym) and a website where "you can"t be tracked".
Why degrade Dave Schwartz and his website? "How to win friends and influence people"-- you are not. They say the more mistakes you make along the way, the better. Each mistake is a learning experience --right?
The probalility of one(1) means certainty. Its certain that some horse horse will win a race. Which one? Most here know there is a relationship between odds and probablities. In fact, they are really the same thing expressed in different ways.
Is your line the "real deal"--- will the real Evander Holifield please stand up. Should I run to the bank tommorrow and put together a bankroll on your "one" factor betting line? You say you have the credentials---so lets see them.

[john messina]

What is your agenda? Here you are touting yourself as the expert in your ability to make a reasonably accurate betting line which will solve most of the selection and money management dilemmmas faced by horseplayers. Why go public with this information? Why use a the name "John Messina" (pseudonym) and a website where "you can"t be tracked".
Why degrade Dave Schwartz and his website? "How to win friends and influence people"-- you are not. They say the more mistakes you make along the way, the better. Each mistake is a learning experience --right?
The probalility of one(1) means certainty. Its certain that some horse horse will win a race. Which one? Most here know there is a relationship between odds and probablities. In fact, they are really the same thing expressed in different ways.
Is your line the "real deal"--- will the real Evander Holifield please stand up. Should I run to the bank tommorrow and put together a bankroll on your "one" factor betting line? You say you have the credentials---so lets see them.

I have no hidden agenda. Simply gving the folks a useful tool. How they use it or choose not to use is of no interest to me. However, if you took the time to analyze my posting, you'd conclude "it is the real deal".

Who I am is NOT important nor are my credentials. I might have ruffled some feathers by stating that the line is based on ONE factor.

Should I run to the bank tommorrow and put together a bankroll on your "one" factor betting line?.

I wouldn't run, maybe walk quickly.

[PaceAdvantage]

I might have ruffled some feathers by stating that the line is based on ONE factor.Doubtful.

[john messina]

Doubtful.

Which part is doubtful? Ruffled a few feathers or based on one factor.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I just looked at all tracks and races you have listed for Jan 13 and 14- just "dark horse". Did you or will you explain what that wagering strategy is? I do not have any idea and all but 1 are listed at less than 6.0 whatever that means, so they cannot be longshots. there is .6 and longest I saw was 6.9.
Place or show bets?

[john messina]

I just looked at all tracks and races you have listed for Jan 13 and 14- just "dark horse". Did you or will you explain what that wagering strategy is? I do not have any idea and all but 1 are listed at less than 6.0 whatever that means, so they cannot be longshots. there is .6 and longest I saw was 6.9.
Place or show bets?

The "dark horse" is derived from the odds line (I'm not at liberty to explain how it's determined). The number to the right of the horse is the odds of the horse finishing third (not win, place show...exactly in the 3rd spot.

Contrary to the odds established by the betting public, the dark horse is "live" and should be used for key boxes (win, place, show, if that is your interest)... for exactas, trifectas and superfectas.

With respect to a specific wager strategy, I have not defined one, nor will I. I will, however, answer general questions about the oddsline. Depending on your style of play, the information you need is there.

Go back further than Jan 13-14, I'm sure you'll find the "dark horses" interesting.

Note: All the numbers you see are expressed as odds.

[kenwoodallpromos]

OK thanks. I get it now!

[PaceAdvantage]

Which part is doubtful? Ruffled a few feathers or based on one factor.Not the part...the whole. In other words, the ruffling of feathers had nothing to do with your odds line or how it's constructed. It's all about the delivery and attitude of your posts, IMHO.

[Cheap Speed]

Can you do a odds line for TPX & GPX?

[njcurveball]

I wouldn't run, maybe walk quickly.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[john messina]

Not the part...the whole. In other words, the ruffling of feathers had nothing to do with your odds line or how it's constructed. It's all about the delivery and attitude of your posts, IMHO.

I agree. My delivery could be softer and my attitude can surely use some adjustments.

However, while I agree with your comment I also would like to take this opportunity to explain "the attitude" portion of my posts.

My attitude was fine, until I received comments like "This is not an oddsline". No explanation given... "You listed severall horse at 99-1, therefore it can't be an oddsline"... "If you use only one factor, it can't be an oddsline"... As if an abundance of factors is required. Not once did anyone making the above statements, supply a rational argument based on the exactness of the oddsline. Even so, I replied to their post with an explanation and clarification, when clarification was needed.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and I have no problem with that. But if you make a blanket statement without facts be prepared to defend it. If you comment is critical soley based on "I say so", be prepared be prepared to accept critisim in your direction.

Once again, I agree with your comment...just felt an explanation was required.

A good day to you, and may the next be better.

[GaryG]

What IS the one factor, or is that a secret?

[john messina]

What IS the one factor, or is that a secret?

I will not disclose the one factor nor the methodology used to create the oddslines. It is a secret.

Best regards,

[Dr Win]

One of my favorite quotes is attributed to Lao Tsu, the compiler of the Tao Te Ching.

He said, "When the WAY is lost, there arise codes of conduct and behavior."

[Dr Win]

Happy New Year to ALL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ho ho ho :D