Suff
01-24-2003, 07:25 PM
Gents... How goes it? Its been so cold I wanna scream. I mean, I have a high tolerance for pain...abnormally high. But I work outside.. and after three weeks of sub-zero weather- Suff needs a hug and a Blankey. Gotta work tommorrow too... Probably get home just in time to play my Pik4... But I ripped the card apart tonight so I am ready ... I handicapped Wrapped in a Blanket like an ole lady...
It's supposed to be 30 degrees tommorrow.. if it is.. I'm working topless and catching a tan...30's gonna feel like 80.
Anyway.. Onto the horses... I looked at the 7th first,,, This what I saw...
6 furlongs/43k, NW1-open 11 horse field-NO AE's
Speed has ruled and ya gotta think it's gonna stay that way until we get some thawing...
#1 Salt water Cowboy (3-1) In my mind.. the horse has gotten exactly what he has needed to win and has'nt. So I'm not sure he can win here. Horse is a stone cold closer/rater.. Needs alot of heat up front. And he's Gotten two identical races a 22.2 with a 45.2 and a 22.1 and a 45.2. They don't run many 21's and 44's in NY? So I'm not sure what he can get thats gonna help him, What he HAS not gotten is a slow last 1/4. And with 11 horses and a few with identical style... I'm pretty sure he won't see a 27 or 28 last quarter here either. So that leaves him outside looking in. He does have the one post going for him in a saving ground sorta way.. but he has no early speed to really posistion himself well... If he does break well and sits 3-4 lengths off the pace...that might help him... But I'm not sold this is my guy.
#2 NJ Devil. I like Runners and this is a runner , 7 times on ticket from 8 starts is enough to like this one. He raced well-better than it looks in his INNNER debut... earned a 73... Looked very good in the MUD next out... When he earned a LIFETIME high 87 beyer,.... and I put alot of stock in a Horses that take to the inner... and this horse appears to like it. he might like the MUD,, but he has two FAST track wins. Last was 4YO and up.. he steps back to his Peer group today.. Things to like and I'm using on wider ticket.
#3 A One Rocket (5-1) This is one of those horses that if not for the Connections-- You'd get a price tommorrow.. But with MOTT-LUZZI... you better LIKE this horse,,, Because he's all over the map and anything is possible... including a RUN to nowhere in dead last at 4-1 or less. Was a 3-2 Fav at this level in September... and was a Flukey 4-1 favorite in his best lifetime race where he got caught at the wire , while earning a 92 beyer. From 10 lifetime starts he's beyered in the 90's 5 times. Hard to ignore.. but its a "close your eyes and pray" bet. 2 of 3 wins are on a speed favoring fast track...
#4 Country Dragon 20-1. Are you familiar with Belmonts MILE and HALf OVAL? Its the only MILE and A HALF oval in NORTH AMERICA. And they break , basically.. onto the turn when sprinting there. The inside is death at belmont. Especially for a horse with no early speed. Broke his Maiden with a 79,, so it would'nt be a HUGE leap for him to Beyer up to belong here. ..And I might add.. that last effort looks worse than it is... do you Recogonize the horse's name that ran third that day? About 7 lengths in front of this guy? PAPUA!! A real race horse... If I excuse his Belmont effort and assume that he has a legitmate right to improve.. and that the 4 post,,while not the best,, is something he can work from.......... then I have a right to use this horse... and I may
#5 Our Summer Storm (5-1)... a short 4 lengths behind a Pretty impressive winner on Todays card ( wire to wire in 43K allow, mile in 138.9) Lots of layoffs.. Few wins...Big time money Burner. but he won't burn any of mine tommorrow,,,toss'd
#6 Stormy Day... (12-1) Anyone have the DRF there... Read what the Mike Hamersly says about this horse.... "would prefer Moisture in the track or turf" "best Efforts have come on Off tracks"... Horse has three wins.. all three on Dirt... all three on FAST tracks... Has an 80 beyer ,.. going this distance in a 50K Claimer that he won... So if he BEYERS high (lifetime high is 81) and wins on a FAST TRACK... Then where does hammersly get that comment? Seriously... sometimes those guys Just MAKE STUFF UP!!! The horse has raced well on all surfaces.. and is Versatile... thats the truth... Forget Hammmersly... he already cashed his paycheck and is probably half drunk by now... This Animal.. finished Just behind MIKE AND LEO (7-2) Two months ago on a NJ fast track.. and was beat by a NICE horse in LASER CON last out .. and is 4 for 5 in the excata in his last five starts...that coincidentally started occuring when he got the Jockey who gets the Mount today...,.23% trainer 19% Jockey Horse is VERY playable on any track...
#7 Whisk (20-1) Two thirds and TWO wins on the only four fast tracks he's ever seen. Caught SLop in his first race in 6 months.. But they did bet him to 13-1 in a 8 horse field. Worked steady ,, rested... One under his belt... Could explode and be gone quickly... But I don't think so,,, But I don't blame those that might... Toss'd
#8 Mister hennesey (5-1) .. The 6... the one that only likes OFF tracks? Beat this guy last out by a nose... But he's 5-1 and the 6 is 12-1? OK... I guess. He does Look ready to fire a Big one tommorrow,,, has that beyer pattern I like... 3 ups and a down, then a NEW high,,,,, 3 ups , then a Down,,, then a New high.... Figures there...using
#9 Affair in the air... (20-1) Does have a 2nd and 3rd at this level... and this field is No world beaters. His worst races have come at the hands of VOW.. Papua...Sherpa Guide and 1 n three... The race that interest me is that Lenghth and half behind COMPELLING WORLD... Gonna try and give him a Look on the track,,,, I may,,use this horse in a very real way. If you excuse his last as needing one.. and prune his 6F trys out of his PP's.... he's playable.
#10 Judge Chris 20-1...... This race is open... This one is playable too... Hard to outright toss this guy. sure.. he's 0 for 12 on the inner... but he's 8 for 12 ITM and 5 for 12 in the EXACTA on the inner.. all at comparable levels as this.. and many against Toughr fields,,,, CATS FURY is great horse... a Horse I gave away here ealier in the week as a $10.00 winner . Has a 91 on the inner.. Look at his race against Puzzlement and ESSAYSON and tell me this horse has no shot? I can't
#11 Mike and LEO... this one I am eliminating... Because he is all Speed.. and I don't think he can clear the field and win from out here. He got beat by the two last out.. and I just can't see him holding off all 11 horses that include some pretty good closers.
If I had to single... it'd be the 8
on a three wide it'd be 8-9-6
Wider 8-9-6-4-2
If I had some house money in my Pocket.. this is definatley my ALL leg... Tough race....
Good luck tommmorrow
It's supposed to be 30 degrees tommorrow.. if it is.. I'm working topless and catching a tan...30's gonna feel like 80.
Anyway.. Onto the horses... I looked at the 7th first,,, This what I saw...
6 furlongs/43k, NW1-open 11 horse field-NO AE's
Speed has ruled and ya gotta think it's gonna stay that way until we get some thawing...
#1 Salt water Cowboy (3-1) In my mind.. the horse has gotten exactly what he has needed to win and has'nt. So I'm not sure he can win here. Horse is a stone cold closer/rater.. Needs alot of heat up front. And he's Gotten two identical races a 22.2 with a 45.2 and a 22.1 and a 45.2. They don't run many 21's and 44's in NY? So I'm not sure what he can get thats gonna help him, What he HAS not gotten is a slow last 1/4. And with 11 horses and a few with identical style... I'm pretty sure he won't see a 27 or 28 last quarter here either. So that leaves him outside looking in. He does have the one post going for him in a saving ground sorta way.. but he has no early speed to really posistion himself well... If he does break well and sits 3-4 lengths off the pace...that might help him... But I'm not sold this is my guy.
#2 NJ Devil. I like Runners and this is a runner , 7 times on ticket from 8 starts is enough to like this one. He raced well-better than it looks in his INNNER debut... earned a 73... Looked very good in the MUD next out... When he earned a LIFETIME high 87 beyer,.... and I put alot of stock in a Horses that take to the inner... and this horse appears to like it. he might like the MUD,, but he has two FAST track wins. Last was 4YO and up.. he steps back to his Peer group today.. Things to like and I'm using on wider ticket.
#3 A One Rocket (5-1) This is one of those horses that if not for the Connections-- You'd get a price tommorrow.. But with MOTT-LUZZI... you better LIKE this horse,,, Because he's all over the map and anything is possible... including a RUN to nowhere in dead last at 4-1 or less. Was a 3-2 Fav at this level in September... and was a Flukey 4-1 favorite in his best lifetime race where he got caught at the wire , while earning a 92 beyer. From 10 lifetime starts he's beyered in the 90's 5 times. Hard to ignore.. but its a "close your eyes and pray" bet. 2 of 3 wins are on a speed favoring fast track...
#4 Country Dragon 20-1. Are you familiar with Belmonts MILE and HALf OVAL? Its the only MILE and A HALF oval in NORTH AMERICA. And they break , basically.. onto the turn when sprinting there. The inside is death at belmont. Especially for a horse with no early speed. Broke his Maiden with a 79,, so it would'nt be a HUGE leap for him to Beyer up to belong here. ..And I might add.. that last effort looks worse than it is... do you Recogonize the horse's name that ran third that day? About 7 lengths in front of this guy? PAPUA!! A real race horse... If I excuse his Belmont effort and assume that he has a legitmate right to improve.. and that the 4 post,,while not the best,, is something he can work from.......... then I have a right to use this horse... and I may
#5 Our Summer Storm (5-1)... a short 4 lengths behind a Pretty impressive winner on Todays card ( wire to wire in 43K allow, mile in 138.9) Lots of layoffs.. Few wins...Big time money Burner. but he won't burn any of mine tommorrow,,,toss'd
#6 Stormy Day... (12-1) Anyone have the DRF there... Read what the Mike Hamersly says about this horse.... "would prefer Moisture in the track or turf" "best Efforts have come on Off tracks"... Horse has three wins.. all three on Dirt... all three on FAST tracks... Has an 80 beyer ,.. going this distance in a 50K Claimer that he won... So if he BEYERS high (lifetime high is 81) and wins on a FAST TRACK... Then where does hammersly get that comment? Seriously... sometimes those guys Just MAKE STUFF UP!!! The horse has raced well on all surfaces.. and is Versatile... thats the truth... Forget Hammmersly... he already cashed his paycheck and is probably half drunk by now... This Animal.. finished Just behind MIKE AND LEO (7-2) Two months ago on a NJ fast track.. and was beat by a NICE horse in LASER CON last out .. and is 4 for 5 in the excata in his last five starts...that coincidentally started occuring when he got the Jockey who gets the Mount today...,.23% trainer 19% Jockey Horse is VERY playable on any track...
#7 Whisk (20-1) Two thirds and TWO wins on the only four fast tracks he's ever seen. Caught SLop in his first race in 6 months.. But they did bet him to 13-1 in a 8 horse field. Worked steady ,, rested... One under his belt... Could explode and be gone quickly... But I don't think so,,, But I don't blame those that might... Toss'd
#8 Mister hennesey (5-1) .. The 6... the one that only likes OFF tracks? Beat this guy last out by a nose... But he's 5-1 and the 6 is 12-1? OK... I guess. He does Look ready to fire a Big one tommorrow,,, has that beyer pattern I like... 3 ups and a down, then a NEW high,,,,, 3 ups , then a Down,,, then a New high.... Figures there...using
#9 Affair in the air... (20-1) Does have a 2nd and 3rd at this level... and this field is No world beaters. His worst races have come at the hands of VOW.. Papua...Sherpa Guide and 1 n three... The race that interest me is that Lenghth and half behind COMPELLING WORLD... Gonna try and give him a Look on the track,,,, I may,,use this horse in a very real way. If you excuse his last as needing one.. and prune his 6F trys out of his PP's.... he's playable.
#10 Judge Chris 20-1...... This race is open... This one is playable too... Hard to outright toss this guy. sure.. he's 0 for 12 on the inner... but he's 8 for 12 ITM and 5 for 12 in the EXACTA on the inner.. all at comparable levels as this.. and many against Toughr fields,,,, CATS FURY is great horse... a Horse I gave away here ealier in the week as a $10.00 winner . Has a 91 on the inner.. Look at his race against Puzzlement and ESSAYSON and tell me this horse has no shot? I can't
#11 Mike and LEO... this one I am eliminating... Because he is all Speed.. and I don't think he can clear the field and win from out here. He got beat by the two last out.. and I just can't see him holding off all 11 horses that include some pretty good closers.
If I had to single... it'd be the 8
on a three wide it'd be 8-9-6
Wider 8-9-6-4-2
If I had some house money in my Pocket.. this is definatley my ALL leg... Tough race....
Good luck tommmorrow