Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for the LeComte Stakes at FG this saturday are available at the link below. Good Luck.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

At 15 MTP Blackberry Road is 3-1 as the fastest horse around two turns in this race which is much more than fair.


He'z Eze is a little better but did so around 1 turn at 7f and is 7-1 off a 12-1 ML.

These are the two I will be looking at in the post parade.

Good Luck !

John

[Tom]

Second fastest. ;)

[john del riccio]

Asmussens horse looked like he was shot out of a cannon at the 1/8 pole.


That guy can flat train. Hats off to a another NY Bred !

John

[bobphilo]

Asmussens horse looked like he was shot out of a cannon at the 1/8 pole.


That guy can flat train. Hats off to a another NY Bred !

John

I had the Z Fortune / Blackberry Exacta (not trying to reboard, just explaining what the factors in the race were. Z Fortune's figures for his debut race were as good as the best of many others with multiple races, including stakes wins. In his 2nd and last race the figure was slower because the pace was very slow and he won depite being a closer. A clear play at the odds. Blackberry Road was too far off a slowish pace early and closed well but coudn't get to the winner at the LeComte tonight.
Both The Darp and He's Eze had speed to consider but just were a bit short at the distance. I didn't buy the BS to elimate them on the bounce factor - they ran to their distance limitation. A lot of careless money overbet on Macho Again and Texas Fever let me spread the Exacta to 4 horses and still get a decent payoff of $59.4.
Interesting race to analyse.

Bob

[cnollfan]

A lot of careless money overbet on Macho Again and Texas Fever
Bob

Can you elaborate on why you didn't like those two? Thanks.

[bobphilo]

Can you elaborate on why you didn't like those two? Thanks.

Be glad too. I just saw this post on my why to bed and will give you my analysis tomorrow. Sorry about the delay.

Bob

[bobphilo]

Can you elaborate on why you didn't like those two? Thanks.

I’m going by their figures on T-Graph and Beyer and the circumstances they were set under. Texas Fever was unproven on dirt, and though his odds were fair, I couldn’t see him beating my top 4 of Z Fortune, Blackberry Road, He’s Eze and The Darp. The latter 2 were a bit of a question at the distance and did end up tiring late but I couldn’t be sure of that before the race and with their figures and odds (He’s Eze) were too dangerous to leave out.

Macho Again was closer to the top one’s, but still slower and clearly didn’t deserve his early favoritism or even his final 2nd choice odds. - a big underlay IMO.

Actually I thought the whole field ran to form with Mad Flatter (an overlay) only a slight surprise.


Bob

[bobphilo]

BTW, in all fairness, and especially since John was good enough to make his PP's available for free on this ROTW thread, I should mention that I used his ratings as well in handicapping the race. The Beyers and TG's were just the ones to came to mind when cnollfan asked me why I thought Macho Again was an overlay.

Bob