Can you name the four U.S. jockeys who are doing the following:

[Turfday]

1) Ridden more the 1,000 mounts in the last three years.

2) Have a solid winning percentage of 15% or more.

3) The average odds of all of their 1,000 + mounts go off at 10/1 or higher, so they are not getting the cream of the crop.

4) Are showing a flat-bet profit betting even with this large sample size.

I'll come back in a day or two with my answers, but there are probably so many sharpies on this board it won't be necessary.

[JustRalph]

[B]3) The average odds of all of their 1,000 + mounts go off at 10/1 or higher, so they are not getting the cream of the crop.
.


very interesting number here............

[whyhorseofcourse]

Not sure if number 3 is possible.

[MakinItHappen]

Not sure if number 3 is possible.

Well, I am thinking that if you ride a 40-1 or 99+ -1 horse every once in awhile that "Average" is going to go Way Up! I am guessing the median off odds of their mounts is much lower than 10-1 and the average odds of their winning mounts, perhaps even lower.

Since it seems like this might be a tough question, perhaps we could just throw out some Jocks that have Positive ROI's (say last year) and an approximately 15% win % and at least a few hundred mounts.

For example: as of 12-27-07 Arroyo N JR had a +.01 ROI for the year and won 16% of his 464 starts.

Perhaps some here have this info in their databases? Looking forward to seeing the answers!

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[Dahoss9698]

I feel like Cornelio Velasquez is one of them.

[phatbastard]

i'll make a guess

jon court

calvin borel

clifton berry

t.thompson

cornelio velasquez

[samyn on the green]

Jose Lezcano
Kent Desormeaux
Norberto Arroyo
Javier Castellano

[rrpic6]

Javier Castellano

J. D. Acosta

Roberto Gonzalez

Frankie Pennigton




RR

[whyhorseofcourse]

Alan Garcia?
Carol Cendeno?
Mike Smith?
Joe Talamo ( He rides some bombs)

[jballscalls]

Rodney Prescott??

[whyhorseofcourse]

Rodney Prescott??

Thats a sharp guess.
Andrew Ramgeet

[shanta]

Joel Rosario

[rastajenk]

I'm thinking, no big names; minor circuits; nearly part-timers even on the small stage. Is that 1000 per year, or 1000 over the 3-year period? Even a Rodney Prescott guess might not fulfill the 10-1 angle. More like William Troilo. :faint:

[jballscalls]

I'm thinking, no big names; minor circuits; nearly part-timers even on the small stage. Is that 1000 per year, or 1000 over the 3-year period? Even a Rodney Prescott guess might not fulfill the 10-1 angle. More like William Troilo. :faint:

Prescott rides mostly chalk at River and Hoosier, but his prices go up at Turfway and Indiana, thats why i picked him. I was thinking it meant 1000 a year. Glad to hear Billy Troilo get a shout out!!

[Turfday]

nm

[whyhorseofcourse]

What about Deshawn Parker or Jesus Barria?

[stu]

Joe A. Martinez

Roberto M. Gonzalez

Larry J. Sterling, Jr.

and Joel Rosario :-)

[FlyinLate]

Alan Garcia
Carol Cedeno
Frankie Pennington
Joe Talamo

Would be my four. Carol Cedeno seems to ride her fair share of bombers when the whole jockey crew is in town. When they leave she gets better mounts and more wins therefor maybe meeting the criteria. I agree with the earlier poster on Talamo mounts for some reason too. Always see him on the occasional 20-1 shot, especially earlier in the year before less of his hype. For those using Calvin Borel, I really don't see him riding much of anything over 8-1.

[MakinItHappen]

Alan Garcia
Carol Cedeno
Frankie Pennington
Joe Talamo

Would be my four. Carol Cedeno seems to ride her fair share of bombers when the whole jockey crew is in town. When they leave she gets better mounts and more wins therefor maybe meeting the criteria. I agree with the earlier poster on Talamo mounts for some reason too. Always see him on the occasional 20-1 shot, especially earlier in the year before less of his hype. For those using Calvin Borel, I really don't see him riding much of anything over 8-1.

Depending on how criteria #1 is defined (ie - 1000 mounts per year for the last 3 years or 1000 mounts total in last 3 years)... Cedeno and Talamo may be DQ'd form consideration as they have not been riding long enough.

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[Steve 'StatMan']

No stats but just guessing

Elvis Trujillo
Manoel Cruz
Miguel Mena
Ramsey Zimmerman

[CryingForTheHorses]

SX Bridgmohan
S Elliott
Ebar Coa
I wont pick the 4th as he has been revealed

[Turfday]

I posted this little "Name That Jockey" quiz because as players, I thought it was noteworthy that there are some jockeys who ride their share of horses and still fly "under the public's radar," winning at a very respectable win rate despite the average odds of their mounts going off at 10/1 or better.
In other words, when we use bet on them, we're getting "bang for the buck." And, to their credit,

There probably are other jockeys who don't ride as many horses and may possibly be showing a flat-bet profit, but that profit likely comes from a handful of big longshot winners and they have a lower win percentage.

I will post all four names and some interesting tidbits on each of the four soon. Right now, Shanta is the only one with a correct answer.

[rrpic6]

John Jacinto

Eusebio Razo

Winston Thompson

RR

[jballscalls]

James Graham??

[MONEY]

Agapito Delgadillo

[cnollfan]

Alonso Quinonez

[Turfday]

JOEL ROSARIO.....equally effective in sprints, routes, turf. Has 45% ITM percentage...very strong considering his mounts go off at average odds of 16/1. Great use underneath in the exactas and tris. Shows 6% flat-bet profit with all mounts.

MIGUEL PEREZ.....has considerably better stats on dirt (sprints /routes) than on turf. Doesn't ride that many on turf (only 97 turf mounts in last three years) and wins only 9% on turf. Whopping 20% flat-bet profit with all mounts, but most of that primarily in sprint races. Good 44% ITM percentage considering horses he rides go off at average odds of 14/1. Another to consider using in exactas and trifectas.

KERWIN CLARK.....solid with sprints but slightly better with routers. Rarely rides any turf horses (19 turf mounts, 1 win in last three years). Shows a fat 21% flat-bet profit with all mounts. In the money with 41% at average odds per mount of 11/1, lower than Rosario or Perez.

HUBER VILLA-GOMEZ.....very underrated rider. Rides far and away more horses that the other three (double the number of Clark and Perez), yet to his real credit still shows a 5% profit with all mounts with no handicapping whatsoever. A comparison would be how tough it is for a baseball players to hit for high average with 500 at bats compared to another player with only 250. Equally effective in sprints, routes and turf and maintains a 41% ITM percentage at average odds of 12/1 per mount.

CHECK OUT THE LINK for COMPLETE DETAILS

BELOW Mounts AO WINS WIN PCT AOPW ITM %

Perez Miguel A. 1645 14-1 278 17% 6-1 44% .

Rosario Joel 1259 16-1 184 15% 6-1 45%

Clark Kerwin D. 1370 11-1 233 17% 6-1 41% .

Villa-Gomez Huber 2610 12-1 385 5% 6-1 41% .

AO = Average Odds of Mounts AOPW = Average Price Winner

[MakinItHappen]

Interesting information Bob!:ThmbUp:

Thank You for Sharing and Best of Luck To You!

MakinItHappen

[JustRalph]

Great Thread~!!!

[northerndancer]

Huber Villa-Gomez is by far one of the most under appreciated riders in the game today........ he rides in the shadow of Parker, Whitney and Rex Stokes but is IMO the best jockey at Mountaineer....... hence why he goes off at an average of 11/1...... he rides at Tampa in the winter but due to the fact that he comes in from the Mountain the trainers at Tampa are not likely to use him....... this guy is dead solid as a rider and he will always give you an honest effort no matter if he is 4/5 or 65/1.

[ryesteve]

Now that these jockeys are no longer "under the radar", I'm going to predict that over the next 6 months, these 4 jockeys will now show an aggregate flat-bet loss on their mounts.

[jotb]

nm


Rosario is not even close.


Joe

[JustRalph]

Rosario is not even close.


Joe

I just cashed with him big time at Santa Anita............ Go Rosario!!

[jfb]

Now that these jockeys are no longer "under the radar", I'm going to predict that over the next 6 months, these 4 jockeys will now show an aggregate flat-bet loss on their mounts.

Bettors seem to have already caught on to Huber Villa-Gomez. While he has won 40 of his last 300 rides, 23 of the wins were at odds of 2-1 or less. Only 4 were more than 10-1 (12-1, 19-1 twice, and 21-1)

Also, Kerwin Clark has won 23 of his last 173 rides. 10 of the wins were at 2-1 or less, only one was over 10-1 (13-1).

But Joel Rosario has won 34 or his last 352 rides with only 4 wins at odds of 2-1 or less. 10 wins have been greater than 10-1 (including 31-1, 61-1, 66-1)

And Miguel Perez has won 56 of his last 241 rides with 21 of the wins at 2-1 or less. 15 of the wins are at 10-1 or more (the highest is 27-1).