does anyone else notice this ?

[porchy44]

Harness racing is a big offender of the following. The other night at Northfield,
there was a horse going off at 9/5. He won the race. His last race back on the program, he runs off the board at 143-1 in a similar class race.

Does anyone else notice these things ?

[FlyinLate]

Harness racing is a big offender of the following. The other night at Northfield,
there was a horse going off at 9/5. He won the race. His last race back on the program, he runs off the board at 143-1 in a similar class race.

Does anyone else notice these things ?

I've seen a few cases like this, and don't completely follow.
Alot can be involved with either:
A) Last race he showed alot but was locked in, made multiple moves, parked half a mile, etc.
B) Even though it's the same class it may be alongside a much weaker group.

If it doesn't meet any of that criteria I really don't follow. What I have noticed though is that this primarily happens in only half mile and occasionally 5/8 mile tracks. I play alot of Balmoral and Meadowlands and have seen this maybe once a year, tops.

[whyhorseofcourse]

Harness racing is a big offender of the following. The other night at Northfield,
there was a horse going off at 9/5. He won the race. His last race back on the program, he runs off the board at 143-1 in a similar class race.

Does anyone else notice these things ?
I bet a horse like that last wednesday at northfield.
Somebody knew something, I had no reads on the horse at all.

[Zman179]

I see this quite a bit. You would be surprised what a driver change + a way better post position can do to a horse's odds.
The difference between Bruce Sturgeon with post 8 and Aaron Merriman with the rail is probably close to fifteen lengths.

[DeanT]

This is kind of what I was alluding to in the post in the about how we handicap topic, where I spoke about speed figures. A horse like that can have a top rated figure from the 8 post and be 100-1, come last, then the next week with the rail be 9-5 and jog.

I once liked a horse at Northfield who was 220-1 and 110-1 in his last two starts. With the 2 post he opened at 3-5 and went up to around 5-2 and jogged. It's a wild game that half mile track racing!

[FlyinLate]

This is kind of what I was alluding to in the post in the about how we handicap topic, where I spoke about speed figures. A horse like that can have a top rated figure from the 8 post and be 100-1, come last, then the next week with the rail be 9-5 and jog.

I once liked a horse at Northfield who was 220-1 and 110-1 in his last two starts. With the 2 post he opened at 3-5 and went up to around 5-2 and jogged. It's a wild game that half mile track racing!

This is why I tend to veer away from half mile tracks. If I play them I bet lightly and mostly just for entertainment. I no longer invest any kind of descent cash in half mile tracks because, well, I suck at them :faint:

[JoeG]

The really weird thing recently, which I can't explain, is that I've done much better at the small tracks 1/2 and 5/8. I used to kill at the big ovals, but the situation has reversed the past few months. I've flat out stunk at BigM and WDB, but killed at DD and MR. I've spent a few sleepless nights trying to figure it out.

[the clocker]

Same here Joe..whatever the reason forget about it and go after the small tracks hard!...Good Luck!

[FlyinLate]

The really weird thing recently, which I can't explain, is that I've done much better at the small tracks 1/2 and 5/8. I used to kill at the big ovals, but the situation has reversed the past few months. I've flat out stunk at BigM and WDB, but killed at DD and MR. I've spent a few sleepless nights trying to figure it out.

I have an ENORMOUS jinx at Dover Downs for some reason. I win less than 25% of the time I play that track for some reason.