Maiden races made easy

[citygoat]

Recently I have been advised that the best way to find a winner in the maidens is to look at their bottom line(their first race) and whichever horse was entered for the highest price and shows some competitive racing is gold.

Has anyone ever given this method any study before ?

His reasoning was the people involved with the horse would know the value of their horse.That's what raised my suspicions, since I have known some horse owners.

[46zilzal]

That is only the SUBJECTIVE evaluation of the connections idea of how the horse PROBABLY could do. It is in competition (Green Monkey you know??) that dictates the challenge, and therefore the RESPONSE, which is unknown before that challenge.

Just because ONE horse started for 40K and another in a MSW has NOTHING to do with the potential pace challenges. Cheap horses can run 44.4 to the half and blow away a lot of other babies.

Those that demonstrate IN A RACE, the ability to challenge to the second call, are the ones to look for all the time.

Post #87 in the "Here's the problem with pace" section. Horses can't read the program, they just run to their abilities no matter what the subjective evaluation of them dictates it MIGHT be.

[Tom]

The angle you refer to sounds like the drop from MSW to maiden claimer and shows some kind of move in the MSW race. It has been studied over the years and is one of the more powerful class drop angles that Mark Cramer has found. Quinn and Qurrin both recommmended this angle as well.

[nobeyerspls]

Recently I have been advised that the best way to find a winner in the maidens is to look at their bottom line(their first race) and whichever horse was entered for the highest price and shows some competitive racing is gold.


I have never studied this but there are many problems with it. First and foremost, owners are often overly optimistic about their horses, particularly homebreds. The trainer might suggest maiden claiming to start but they will insist upon at least one msw. Then too there is the issue of surface and distance.
Unlike 46's response to you I want my maidens to not show anything in a race. My longest odds winners come from those with low speed figures and nothing in their pp's to afford pace analysis.

[1st time lasix]

Unlike many players....I enjoy handicapping and playing MSW races. Love to have them in the Pick four sequence. I find it hard to resist them in exotics. I have always appreciated breeding and training angles among the babies who could be "any kind" in the future as they mature. I have read the books/BloodHorse magazines and now I have a working knowledge though experience. A couple of my largest scores have included these types of races. The lower level maiden claiming races are less interesting to me but both race conditions sometimes offer juicy returns for an astute player that has a little racing luck. Use flashes of speed against better....use barns that have shown the ability to win early....definitely use good sires and classy dams....seek two solid workouts in their line....consider Tomlinson numbers....track appearance......tote action and today's post positions. There is a new system provided by "Case the Race" that i will be watching to see if {and when} they start monitoring works on juvenilles.

[Pace Cap'n]

Recently I have been advised that the best way to find a winner in the maidens is to look at their bottom line(their first race) and whichever horse was entered for the highest price and shows some competitive racing is gold.

Competitive racing--not a bad angle in itself.

[cj]

Maidens made easy...three words: Bet the speed.

[46zilzal]

Maidens made easy...three words: Bet the speed.
Has worked, is working and will work forever and a day. These babies are learning to run and it really takes awhile, even for the better ones, to LEARN to make a move with dirt in their faces. Out front it is a lot easier to make a move, get clear and be gone.

[jotb]

Hello all:


Reasons for why horses run MSW first time out.

1- Owners like to run in these types because if they are showing good workouts the owner is afraid of losing the horse in a Maiden Claimer race. Very rare a trainer will say the horse needs to run on the bottom first time out. The owner will not have a good impression from the trainer. It's like telling someones child is not that smart.

2- It's best to run in MSW on dirt first couple of races if your main goal is to run the horse longer or on the turf.

3- Really no harm done when running in a MSW because for one you can't lose the horse and secondly the horse will get something out of the race and all it might take next time out is a change of equipment or medication to make the difference.

4- By the time a horse runs first out plenty of money has been pumped into the horse so you have to protect the interest.

5- Some trainers just don't know exactly what the horse might be worth even though some horses sale prices are just too high to put in a maiden claimer.

There are times it's best to run a horse in a maiden claiming first time out. Say for example they paid 25k in the sale. Why not try running the horse for a 25k tag first out. Once again it's all about protecting the interest.

If a horse came out of a sale and was purchased for a high amount of money and is running way below the purchase price it's a pretty good indication they (owners and trainers) don't expect much for the horse.

Trainers on occasion will try and run in a maiden claimer first out trying to steal a race especially when the works are slow on paper but in reality were not. So, the trainer takes a stab and prays nobody takes the horse. Most of the time in situations like this the trainer owns the horse.

I once knew a trainer that felt he could win first time out but thought the MSW could come up a bit tough so he decided to run for a tag on the bottom. Actually it was his young daughter's horse and they ran taking a hugh shot of losing the horse. The horse was a 5yo maiden so many trainers will pass on something like this because of the age especially the horse had one very slow published work. The horse won easily but only paid $5 and on top of it the horse was claimed. The trainer was worried about his daughter and wife but it eventually worked out because they claimed the horse back and then win a couple of races included an ALWN1X.

Joe

[1st time lasix]

I restrict my use of "firsters" in Mdn claiming debuts to a trainer that has won doing that before at a decent percentage. {12% or higher} You would be surprised how many of the entries in for a tag the first time out have absolutely no talent at all. toss! In fact in reality, very few 2 and 3 year old maiden claimers running for less than 50-60 k have any type of run in them. Very undependable.

[Wright Stuff]

Recently I have been advised that the best way to find a winner in the maidens is to look at their bottom line(their first race) and whichever horse was entered for the highest price and shows some competitive racing is gold.

Has anyone ever given this method any study before ?

His reasoning was the people involved with the horse would know the value of their horse.That's what raised my suspicions, since I have known some horse owners.

The ONLY way to guarantee making money betting maiden races is to NOT bet them. The majority of maiden races involve more guessing than true handicapping.

[46zilzal]

The ONLY way to guarantee making money betting maiden races is to NOT bet them. The majority of maiden races involve more guessing than true handicapping.
HARDLY. Longest prices I ever got were BOTH in maiden contests.

2nd race - Belmont Park - May 28, 2007
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
11 Big Daddy Rex 123.00 37.80 16.40
7 Dr. D. F. C. 5.40 3.70
2 Striking Rizzi 3.50

[russowen77]

I like maidens. If it was all I bet I would be among the true winners here.

I prefer MSW but I will take the claimers also.

If the horses are running par then throw out the 1sters. When using firsters I recommend watching the tote board. The backtrack will know and there will be early money.

What I look for is second time starters that showed they could handle the early pace exected today. The most money I ever ever made was on a maiden special weight colt that took the early lead in his first race and then flat stopped when he saw the crowd for the first time. He didn't stop his second.

As a general rule sires are more important for 2 yos and trainers for older.

Play closers in your exactas and tris. The best speed usualy wins but the rest sure normally mail it in.

[RaceBookJoe]

I like maidens. If it was all I bet I would be among the true winners here.

I prefer MSW but I will take the claimers also.

If the horses are running par then throw out the 1sters. When using firsters I recommend watching the tote board. The backtrack will know and there will be early money.

What I look for is second time starters that showed they could handle the early pace exected today. The most money I ever ever made was on a maiden special weight colt that took the early lead in his first race and then flat stopped when he saw the crowd for the first time. He didn't stop his second.

As a general rule sires are more important for 2 yos and trainers for older.

Play closers in your exactas and tris. The best speed usualy wins but the rest sure normally mail it in.

I have used almost the exact approach for over 30 years, still working.

[riskman]

The ONLY way to guarantee making money betting maiden races is to NOT bet them. The majority of maiden races involve more guessing than true handicapping.

Maiden Claimers 3yo+ on dirt Sprints and Routes can provide a good source of medium and long priced horses. Most of the fields are full(good payoffs), and represent the horses that will not be used for breeding. Look for horses with the best projected second call – in other words, your projection of who would be leading at the second call of the race you are handicapping. This seems so simple but it is there for the taking every day. Of course, there are other factors such as back speed and class(droppers). Learn and earn. Study the charts and you will start to see patterns.

[ryesteve]

The ONLY way to guarantee making money betting maiden races is to NOT bet them.
I won't argue your opinion on maiden races, but I'm confused as to where the profit comes from when you pass a race.