cant pick a winner..

[wegoosewe]

seems like no matter what i do i cant win.. any help

[wegoosewe]

my horses dont even place.. you just cant win at this game.

[bigchump]

my horses dont even place.. you just cant win at this game.

If you can't place then try SIMULCAST (#4) at GG to SHOW.
You have 4 mins. left

EDIT:
See how easy it is?
4 SimulcastAlvarado F T$4.80 $2.80 $2.60

[kenwoodallpromos]

80-85% of w/p/s money is always returned to bettors- you do not have to beat the house, just 25% of other bettors.
The more factors in your horse's favor the more chance of winning the bet.
Often good factors are trainer and runner previous success and experience at that type race, no bad indicators. I like consistent ITM horses.
Watch for horses whose odds go down just a little bit during betting.

[garyoz]

80-85% of w/p/s money is always returned to bettors- you do not have to beat the house, just 25% of other bettors.
.

Not all bettors wager the same amount. Just curious how you came up with the 25% number? I used to know the rule about what percentage of bettors account for the majority of the handle at NYRA--it was surprisingly small--but I can't remember the stat.

The fact is to be profitable at this game in the long run you have to beat the sharpies by finding odds inefficiencies (aka overlays).

[whyhorseofcourse]

Stop betting horses.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Not all bettors wager the same amount. Just curious how you came up with the 25% number? I used to know the rule about what percentage of bettors account for the majority of the handle at NYRA--it was surprisingly small--but I can't remember the stat.

The fact is to be profitable at this game in the long run you have to beat the sharpies by finding odds inefficiencies (aka overlays).
I'm talking about the takeout + about 10%, not beating 1 bridgejumper in each race. The average of all bettors on average lose the takeout + the breakage.

[garyoz]

I'm talking about the takeout + about 10%, not beating 1 bridgejumper in each race. The average of all bettors on average lose the takeout + the breakage.

They are not bridgejumpers. Bridgejumpers bet huge sums to make a small return on one bet--usually to show.

It would be interesting to see the graphic distribution of handle as a function of number of players. The mean (average) amount wagered is a misleading statistic (IMHO). I think you really need to beat a number of large bettors that is less than the 25% number. It is not like looking around an OTB and thinking that you only need to beat 25% of the chumps.

Perhaps an analogy is think about retail investors compared to institutional investors in the equity market. That's my take anyway. It is a really tough game and there are no easy answers--that's why the player population is shrinking. Oh, for the good old days of dumb money.

[Zman179]

my horses dont even place.. you just cant win at this game.

Go catch a movie or go take your "significant other" to dinner. If today isn't meant to be your day, then lick your wounds and stop beating your head against the wall like this --> :bang:

[dav4463]

Put $2 to win on every horse in the field just to cash a ticket. At least you will be on a one race win streak! :D

[bigchump]

Put $2 to win on every horse in the field just to cash a ticket. At least you will be on a one race win streak! :D
If you flat bet $2 on every horse in all races over an entire meet at a given track wouldn't you only lose the takeout% in the long haul, or am I wrong again?

[ryesteve]

If you flat bet $2 on every horse in all races over an entire meet at a given track wouldn't you only lose the takeout% in the long haul, or am I wrong again?You'd actually lose even more than that.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you flat bet $2 on every horse in all races over an entire meet at a given track wouldn't you only lose the takeout% in the long haul, or am I wrong again?
Depends on the actual number of bettors!LOL!!

[Tom Barrister]

seems like no matter what i do i cant win.. any help

Stop betting for the time being. Try to figure out what you're doing wrong. If you haven't been keeping betting records---and shame on you if you haven't----then you'll need to go forwardly (without actually betting) and analyze the results.

[Dave Schwartz]

If you flat bet $2 on every horse in all races over an entire meet at a given track wouldn't you only lose the takeout% in the long haul, or am I wrong again?


The takeout is taken from every wagered dollar. Thus, if you wagered the money as the public does you would lose the take.

However, if you wagered "flat" (i.e. $2 on each horse) you'd lose a little more - about 22.5% instead of about 18%.

[InControlX]

Stop betting for the time being. Try to figure out what you're doing wrong. If you haven't been keeping betting records---and shame on you if you haven't----then you'll need to go forwardly (without actually betting) and analyze the results.

Dead center advice! A related question... What do you consider a meaningful trial count for a spot play? I used to use a lower number to "qualify a spot" but lately have stretched to 200 (not cards nor races, but actual horses run meeting the play). Shorter trials seem to yield optimistic, but soon disappointing results.

ICX

[Robert Fischer]

Playing for "fun?"

One of the best slump busters you can do is play on paper without actually betting.
Take it seriously. I recommend using past performances, any speed or pace figures, the time limit, a feed to look at the live pool information, etc...
The key is simulating your regular handicapping/wagering approach.

write down your wagers or keep them in a notepad or excel file.

Hopefully this will help by giving some pain-free practice as well as identify some strengths. Most players do better at certain situations.
The next step is to identify and wait/anticipate those situations.
When you show some improvement on paper you may be ready to start playing with real money.