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Capper Al
01-05-2008, 09:29 AM
Speed figures reign as the top single factor alone for predicting a race. Comprehensive handicapping, taking into account more than one factor, might do better than speed alone. I use comprehensive handicapping but for picking the out right winner, I can't say my comprehensive play out picks my speed figures. Comprehensive handicapping does get me of the chalk somewhat.

Pace can not be anything more than a derivative of speed since pace is speed dissected. Pace's best value comes in as a tie breaker between horses with similar speed figures. And fortunately for pace handicappers, a lot of horses' speed figures can not be statistically separated within a race. Using Beyer's comment that it takes more than 2 speed points to be statistically significant, then a race with speed rates such as 99, 98,97, and even 96 would be in the ball park for today's winner. (The 99 horse might have a bad post.) What pace would tells us is who had to overcome the fastest early pace to achieve their similar speed rating. Even pace ratings will end up being statistically bunched with no clear leader. But with pace you may get a glimpse as to who has potential. Using our earlier speed figures and BRIS style pace ratings to the second call, we might have something as follows:

Horse A: 99 spd + 90 E2 (Best speed with poor post)
Horse B: 98 spd + 99 E2
Horse C: 97 spd + 98 E2
Horse D: 96 spd + 99 E2
Here speed is indistinguishable between all 4 horses, and pace is indistinguishable for Horses B, C, and D. We now have some focus that speed alone wouldn't give us. Horse A pace and poor post should eliminate him. The rest of the horses are closely bunched and statistically can not be separated based on speed or pace figures alone, but in tandem we can note that Horse B has both the top speed and top pace. This might signify that Horse B should be our choice. We now have something to go on.

So what's the problem with Pace? Nothing really, if Pace analysis occurs after Speed analysis. Looking at Pace figures first or skipping over speed is what's wrong. There shouldn't be anyone calling themselves a Pace handicapper. They should say they are a Speed handicappers that use Pace to augment their final selections.

cj
01-05-2008, 09:49 AM
I think you are talking two different things here.

The first, and by far most important, part of pace handicapping is using pace to get a better gauge of a horse's past history than speed figures alone give you.

You could tell me horse A is this: 82, 75, 90...or this 82-82, 89-75, 74-90. Which is more useful?

The second part, and in my opinion much less important, is using pace to predict what will happen in today's race. Why less important? Because I have yet to meet any person or seen any system that is even close to reliable when trying to predict the pace and pressure in a group of races.

Myself, I'll bet the horse I think has the most ability and offers value and hope the trip works out well.

Tom
01-05-2008, 09:58 AM
Speed figures reign as the top single factor alone for predicting a race. Not at all. this is myth.
Pace can not be anything more than a derivative of speed since pace is speed dissected. Again, not at all. Pace's best value comes in as a tie breaker between horses with similar speed figures. More of the same.
There shouldn't be anyone calling themselves a Pace handicapper. Why, because YOU do not understand pace? They should say they are a Speed handicappers that use Pace to augment their final selections.What about us who do not do this?

Bottom liine.

You do not understand pace.

And are trying to rationalize why you cannot learn it.
And sounding rather foolish to many of us! :lol:Does Leno know about you? He needs good comedy writers!

Tee
01-05-2008, 10:06 AM
I now have no idea what method of handicapping I use. :)

So what's the problem with Pace? Nothing really, if Pace analysis occurs after Speed analysis. Looking at Pace figures first or skipping over speed is what's wrong. There shouldn't be anyone calling themselves a Pace handicapper. They should say they are a Speed handicappers that use Pace to augment their final selections.

GaryG
01-05-2008, 10:12 AM
This seems like deja vu all over again. Wasn't there a recent thread on this that went on and on and on and....?

Tee
01-05-2008, 10:13 AM
Craig,

Are you talking how much actual heat is being applied(or not) early on in the race to effect outcome.?

Because I have yet to meet any person or seen any system that is even close to reliable when trying to predict the pace and pressure in a group of races.


I really like what you have said here.

Myself, I'll bet the horse I think has the most ability and offers value and hope the trip works out well.

shanta
01-05-2008, 10:13 AM
Positional running styles of the horses has as much if not more to do with pace then the numbers alone in many races

cj
01-05-2008, 10:16 AM
Craig,

The part of your post I put in bold. Are talking how much actual heat is being applied(or not) early on in the race to effect outcome?

How much heat, how fast, and by which horses?

nobeyerspls
01-05-2008, 10:53 AM
H
H orse A: 99 spd + 90 E2 (Best speed with poor post)
Horse B: 98 spd + 99 E2
Horse C: 97 spd + 98 E2
Horse D: 96 spd + 99 E2


Horse A is first time lasix.
Horse B woke up with a cough. The trainer wanted to scratch him but the owner insisted that he run.
Horse C is blinkers on.
Horse D is front wrapped for the first time.

Go figure.

DJofSD
01-05-2008, 11:04 AM
Some people understand F=MA while others appreciate E=MC**2.

To each his own.

ddog
01-05-2008, 11:19 AM
I start with trying to assess form/current intent.
You need to know which horses are not in good enough form to put up their best nbrs in whichever segment of the race they will need to dominate.
It isn't always the early part.

If you can get close to that and then apply the how many - how fast and when pace parts you can really kill some races.
I have found that this takes a lot of time and study of the horse/trainers/jocks and I can't justify that time spent in most cases.

One other way is to know less and construct several scenerios and then bet all of them you can and still hit your goal for the race.
I do have this one automated to a large degree.

CJ has it right otherwise.

46zilzal
01-05-2008, 11:39 AM
Pace analysis works; has for years, no matter who says otherwise.

GaryG
01-05-2008, 12:07 PM
Pace analysis works; has for years, no matter who says otherwise.It has worked since racing began. This was shown years ago in the works by Mahl and Taulbot. At this point it should be a given.

46zilzal
01-05-2008, 12:08 PM
Where the majority of people LOSE out is in NOT understanding what pace pressure does to each horse. One cannot focus on a single line in the past performance. The horse has met various pressures over it's last 10 races and one has to figure out it's typical (if possible) response to the various pace scenarios it has overcome vs. the ones where it collapsed. Then on top of that is the form cycle which the horse usually can tell you if you look at the right numbers.

Right there looking at you if you have the gumption to find them.

First_Place
01-05-2008, 12:40 PM
"Speed figures reign as the top single factor alone for predicting a race."

(Shaking my head) If only Doc Sartin could read your (misinformed) statements.

FP

Greyfox
01-05-2008, 12:41 PM
This seems like deja vu all over again. Wasn't there a recent thread on this that went on and on and on and....?

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: It is the same old rehash, except Spiteri is calling himself CapperAl.

Surely there are many ways to handicap horses. I know a man who does very well with "bloodlines." I couldn't handicap that way if my life depended on it. Another man uses position, form factors , and class a la William Scott.
Anyone who would come here and knock any style of handicapping and in particular pace handicapping on a board named "Pace Advantage" is simply pulling chains. Don't bite.

46zilzal
01-05-2008, 01:12 PM
"Speed figures reign as the top single factor alone for predicting a race."

(Shaking my head) If only Doc Sartin could read your (misinformed) statements.

FP

The final chapter of a story (speed rating) is NOT the whole story. Everyday horses with better final times are beaten by horses with better energy distribution.

GaryG
01-05-2008, 01:31 PM
As someone said (wish it was me): It is not how fast they run but how they run fast. That is just all there is to it. Sayonara and AMF.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 03:00 PM
I think you are talking two different things here.

The first, and by far most important, part of pace handicapping is using pace to get a better gauge of a horse's past history than speed figures alone give you.

You could tell me horse A is this: 82, 75, 90...or this 82-82, 89-75, 74-90. Which is more useful?

The second part, and in my opinion much less important, is using pace to predict what will happen in today's race. Why less important? Because I have yet to meet any person or seen any system that is even close to reliable when trying to predict the pace and pressure in a group of races.

Myself, I'll bet the horse I think has the most ability and offers value and hope the trip works out well.

That's what I'm saying. Pace does give one a better gauge on speed. They need to be worked in tandem not alone, and Speed has to be the first sort not pace.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 03:14 PM
Bottom liine.

You do not understand pace.

And are trying to rationalize why you cannot learn it.
And sounding rather foolish to many of us! :lol:Does Leno know about you? He needs good comedy writers!

You wouldn't say that if you had a clear picture of pace yourself. My example is right out of Brohamer. And to quote Ainsle on top of Brohamer, "the likeliest is one that recently demonstrated its ability to produce the best final time after setting or overcoming the fastest early pace."

Better go back and read post #1 again. It fits. That's the problem with pace, fans see the formulas and forget about how to apply pace. Even Brad Free in Handicapping 101 states the order of handicapping and few seem to get it. Speed preceeds pace.

john del riccio
01-05-2008, 03:19 PM
It is not how fast they run but how they run fast.

There has never been a truer statement made in this thread or the other one that went on for days.

John

GaryG
01-05-2008, 03:20 PM
You wouldn't say that if you had a clear picture of pace yourself. My example is right out of Brohamer. And to quote Ainsle on top of Brohamer, "the likeliest is one that recently demonstrated its ability to produce the best final time after setting or overcoming the fastest early pace."

Better go back and read post #1 again. It fits. That's the problem with pace, fans see the formulas and forget about how to apply pace. Even Brad Free in Handicapping 101 states the order of handicapping and few seem to get it. Speed preceeds pace.If you know all of this and have read all of these authors why the questions? Take it to the windows like everybody else.

Tom
01-05-2008, 03:25 PM
There has never been a truer statement made in this thread or the other one that went on for days.

John

It is WHEN they run fast that counts. :lol:

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 03:26 PM
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: It is the same old rehash, except Spiteri is calling himself CapperAl.

Surely there are many ways to handicap horses. I know a man who does very well with "bloodlines." I couldn't handicap that way if my life depended on it. Another man uses position, form factors , and class a la William Scott.
Anyone who would come here and knock any style of handicapping and in particular pace handicapping on a board named "Pace Advantage" is simply pulling chains. Don't bite.

Similar, but with a different twist. This is about how to apply pace. This is more in response to the thread about Pace on Artificial Surfaces. This thread is about tossing in ideas about pace and its application while the other one was about the whole premise of pace itself. I'm guessing an open discussion about pros and cons isn't for you.

Tom
01-05-2008, 03:27 PM
Speed has to be the first sort not pace.

No.

And you do not describe the problem with pace, you describe the problem with handicappers who do not understand pace. I really do not care what Brad Free says - I bet with my money, not his ideas.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 03:28 PM
There has never been a truer statement made in this thread or the other one that went on for days.

John

No disargement with this in post #1.

cj
01-05-2008, 03:31 PM
That's what I'm saying. Pace does give one a better gauge on speed. They need to be worked in tandem not alone, and Speed has to be the first sort not pace.

In tandem? Sometimes.

How about 3yo maidens going 5f? How about a turf sprint for NW2lt claimers?

Sometimes speed is dominant. Sometimes pace is dominant. Sometimes you need both. I have pretty broad guidlines:

The younger the horses, the more pace matters.
The shorter the race, the more pace matters.
The cheaper the race, the more pace matters.

I don't mix surfaces, ever, but the above still work very well for me on all.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 04:17 PM
In tandem? Sometimes.

How about 3yo maidens going 5f? How about a turf sprint for NW2lt claimers?

Sometimes speed is dominant. Sometimes pace is dominant. Sometimes you need both. I have pretty broad guidlines:

The younger the horses, the more pace matters.
The shorter the race, the more pace matters.
The cheaper the race, the more pace matters.

I don't mix surfaces, ever, but the above still work very well for me on all.

Like I said, I am a comprehensive handicapper. Everything you mentioned above, I agree with. My example was made to get at the heart of the matter not looking at the exceptions.

skate
01-05-2008, 06:48 PM
Like I said, I am a comprehensive handicapper. Everything you mentioned above, I agree with. My example was made to get at the heart of the matter not looking at the exceptions.


Don't let em get you down.

Pace is an occurrence "OF" speed.

Pace can reverse, and become better or worse.

Try to reverse your speed.

You are AT the Heart of the mater.;)

DJofSD
01-05-2008, 06:58 PM
Comparing speed to pace is like comparing dragsters to grand prix.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:05 PM
Comparing speed to pace is like comparing dragsters to grand prix.

Who's comparing speed to pace here? True that the sum of all pace is the speed, but I haven't dismissed the incremental value of pace. Go back over post #1 here and re-read it. The speed figure are discerned with the help of pace, not the other way around.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:15 PM
The final chapter of a story (speed rating) is NOT the whole story. Everyday horses with better final times are beaten by horses with better energy distribution.

I would tend to think this type of upset would be more due to class than pace.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:16 PM
It is WHEN they run fast that counts. :lol:

This could be because they are showing their true class in that line.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:21 PM
"Speed figures reign as the top single factor alone for predicting a race."

(Shaking my head) If only Doc Sartin could read your (misinformed) statements.

FP

Sartin would be disappointed in your statement above. Sartin was big in studying what works. I am not a speed handicapper, yet my studies and others find that speed is still the number one single lone factor.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:22 PM
I start with trying to assess form/current intent.
You need to know which horses are not in good enough form to put up their best nbrs in whichever segment of the race they will need to dominate.
It isn't always the early part.

If you can get close to that and then apply the how many - how fast and when pace parts you can really kill some races.
I have found that this takes a lot of time and study of the horse/trainers/jocks and I can't justify that time spent in most cases.

One other way is to know less and construct several scenerios and then bet all of them you can and still hit your goal for the race.
I do have this one automated to a large degree.

CJ has it right otherwise.

I agree.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:28 PM
Originally Posted by GaryG
It is not how fast they run but how they run fast.


There has never been a truer statement made in this thread or the other one that went on for days.

John

That's how I used pace also in post #1, but when one applies pace becomes the key. Speed preceeds pace in handicapping order. Speed is the first sort.

RXB
01-05-2008, 08:33 PM
There isn't an absolutely sure way to predict anything in horse racing. But pace analysis works pretty well for me, and in fact the more I actually analyze the possible scenarios rather than just bet pace/speed figures, the better I'm doing.

And I totally agree with Zilzal about the one-line phenomenon. Sometimes, you see things that lead you to reason that a repeat is likely, but more often a reversion to the norm occurs. That's why I generally prefer to use a horse's second best numbers as the predictor of what it can do.

Capper Al
01-05-2008, 08:41 PM
There isn't an absolutely sure way to predict anything in horse racing. But pace analysis works pretty well for me, and in fact the more I actually analyze the possible scenarios rather than just bet pace/speed figures, the better I'm doing.

And I totally agree with Zilzal about the one-line phenomenon. Sometimes, you see things that lead you to reason that a repeat is likely, but more often a reversion to the norm occurs. That's why I generally prefer to use a horse's second best numbers as the predictor of what it can do.

I mean to do my own study on second best numbers. With marked-up speed track varivants, there might be something to it.

If you dive right into pace without narrowing by speed first, you could be just lucking in because most contenders are bunched together with their speed figures.

RXB
01-05-2008, 08:45 PM
High speed figures = low prices most of the time. No thanks.

46zilzal
01-05-2008, 08:47 PM
Two horses run the same final time. I'll take the one ahead at the second call every time.

46zilzal
01-05-2008, 08:51 PM
I would tend to think this type of upset would be more due to class than pace.

Most horses have no idea about any anthropomorphism: they just run. The ones with the better pace acclimation usually win.

radietz
01-05-2008, 08:58 PM
Your comments on speed/pace are interesting. It is very refreshing to read a specific analysis and example. This opens up a clear opportunity for others to agree or disagree and to provide specific examples from there experience with out wondering off point.

46zilzal
01-05-2008, 09:18 PM
MANY horses tip their hands by running a prep with the age old "rounding into form" aspect of improving early speed, then get trounced in the final fraction. These are usually on the improve so that their SPEED (start to finish) would not rank them close to the top today, but the improvement to almost 60% of the race last out, DOES in today's match up.

Tom
01-05-2008, 11:13 PM
That's how I used pace also in post #1, but when one applies pace becomes the key. Speed preceeds pace in handicapping order. Speed is the first sort.

I got a figure that hits about 50% top two, nationwide. Show me any speed fig that can do that.

Aqueduct, December 2008:

Top 2 speed figs - 39%
Top 2 EP velocity - 40%
Top 2 AP velocity - 43%, 30% top with a 12% profit
Top 2 K (HTR) rating - 58%

I never get to the sort on speed. Costs too much money.;)

Capper Al
01-06-2008, 06:53 AM
High speed figures = low prices most of the time. No thanks.

Agree. That's what I said in post #1. Speed is the best single factor alone but it's chalky. That's why I am a comprehensive handicapper to get off the chalk.

Capper Al
01-06-2008, 06:54 AM
Two horses run the same final time. I'll take the one ahead at the second call every time.

I agree. This is exactly what I did in post #1.

Capper Al
01-06-2008, 07:00 AM
Your comments on speed/pace are interesting. It is very refreshing to read a specific analysis and example. This opens up a clear opportunity for others to agree or disagree and to provide specific examples from there experience with out wondering off point.

Thanks. That has been my style of posting, keep it as simple as possible and generic as possible. When fans disagree, I hope they respond in a similar fashion with facts and/or a different scenario or idea.

Capper Al
01-06-2008, 07:17 AM
I got a figure that hits about 50% top two, nationwide. Show me any speed fig that can do that.

Aqueduct, December 2008:

Top 2 speed figs - 39%
Top 2 EP velocity - 40%
Top 2 AP velocity - 43%, 30% top with a 12% profit
Top 2 K (HTR) rating - 58%

I never get to the sort on speed. Costs too much money.;)

Tom,

I like your post. This gives some meat to what we are exploring in this thread. Is your speed fig raw speed such as Beyer figures or is it adjusted speed that has been manipulated a bit? EP (Early Speed to the second call?) and speed have always been close in percentage hits for me too. AP (Average pace) out doing speed is a bit of a mystery to me. I take it that each call is calculated separately and then averaged verse being Speed/(amount of calls). With HTR K, I have no idea what this is calculating.

It looks like you have some interesting stuff in your database. I agreed in post #1 about using speed alone. Speed is costly to bet on because speed is over bet. This is why I am a comprehensive handicapper and use other factors. It gets me off the chalk somewhat.

46zilzal
01-06-2008, 12:09 PM
Before artificial surfaces, what Dr. Quirin found is still extant: speed, Early pace, is the universal track variant. Once you know where to find it's hidden form (energy distribution), the chalk often disappears.

Cratos
01-06-2008, 02:32 PM
[QUOTE= So what's the problem with Pace? Nothing really, if Pace analysis occurs after Speed analysis. Looking at Pace figures first or skipping over speed is what's wrong. There shouldn't be anyone calling themselves a Pace handicapper. They should say they are a Speed handicappers that use Pace to augment their final selections.[/QUOTE]


Many years ago in an old handicapping book the author (I don’t remember his name) wrote about speed and pace with the following: “Speed is the time of the race and pace is the time the race was run in…..” I realize that is a simplistic distinction, but it clearly distinguishes the difference between the two race time attributes.

Capper Al
01-06-2008, 03:13 PM
Many years ago in an old handicapping book the author (I don’t remember his name) wrote about speed and pace with the following: “Speed is the time of the race and pace is the time the race was run in…..” I realize that is a simplistic distinction, but it clearly distinguishes the difference between the two race time attributes.

Your quote is not clear to me. The problem with both speed and pace is that the race is run by a herd. Sometimes, for whatever reason, the herd just doesn't go to their par. If the speed is artificially low, so will be the fractions of the pace. We can't expect high pace numbers from a slow race, in general. I know they could all burn up the first half and die as a field in last half. This would produce good early fractions, but poor last half pace figures. Then we have to ask ourselves, "Is the horse worth more than his total performance in the slow race?" This is as much subjective as it is objective to answer.

classhandicapper
01-06-2008, 03:20 PM
The second part, and in my opinion much less important, is using pace to predict what will happen in today's race. Why less important? Because I have yet to meet any person or seen any system that is even close to reliable when trying to predict the pace and pressure in a group of races.

Myself, I'll bet the horse I think has the most ability and offers value and hope the trip works out well.

I think no one can reliably determine the pace pressure of every race, but like all other aspects of handicapping what matters is if you can add value by trying.

I think some situations lend themselves to high reliability in terms of pace predictions and other don't.

IMO it's WAY EASIER to predict a slow pace than a fast pace because a group of horses that are all slow early rarely suddenly show a lot of early speed. That allows you to downgrade some of the deep closers even more than usual.

The probability of a fast pace increases as the field size increases, as the number of one dimensional speed horses increase, if the track has been playing to speed and the jocks are getting more aggressive because of it etc....

You can build those insights into your thinking about the fair odds even though you know you will wind up being wrong about the most likely scenario fairly often.

If you like a horse at 4-1 off his figures, but notice he's one of 6 speed horses in an 12 horse field, IMO you'd have to be crazy to ignore that and take 4-1. IMO you need more of a price to compensate for the "greater than average risk" of a duel. If he wins anyway, big deal. It happens. Horses like that are going to lose more often than their figures suggest because they are going to get dueled into defeat more often than in the average race.

If you like a horse at 3-1 but he's only 5-2, then notice he's the only speed in the race, you can probably take that 5-2 even though sometimes another horse will wind up running with him. If you are good at identifying horses that will get loose, he'll have such a huge advantage when he does get loose he'll wind up winning more often that his figures alone suggested he would.

If there are 2 speed horses in an 8 horse field and some of the others sometimes show speed and other times rate etc... that situation does not lend itself to any kind of reasonably reliable analysis. One speed horse could take back or break slowly. One could simply outbreak the other. If a few go that sometimes don't it could be fast. In those cases (which is most races), I tend to ignore the pace setup.

It's the extremes that can be diagnosed well.

Gibbon
01-06-2008, 03:56 PM
Top 2 K (HTR) rating - 58% Hard to believe.

Cratos
01-07-2008, 02:14 PM
Your quote is not clear to me. The problem with both speed and pace is that the race is run by a herd. Sometimes, for whatever reason, the herd just doesn't go to their par. If the speed is artificially low, so will be the fractions of the pace. We can't expect high pace numbers from a slow race, in general. I know they could all burn up the first half and die as a field in last half. This would produce good early fractions, but poor last half pace figures. Then we have to ask ourselves, "Is the horse worth more than his total performance in the slow race?" This is as much subjective as it is objective to answer.

Sorry that I wasn’t clear to you and I will try explain speed and pace in a different manner.

Speed refers to how much distance the horse covered or run in a specific time. For instance, if a horse had run 6f in 1:10 seconds, its speed would be ¾ mile per 70 seconds or about 38.6 mph.

Pace refers to how fast the horse covered or run a specific distance. If we would go back to the above example and say the horse covered the the 6f in 1:10 seconds and then ask the question at “What pace or how fast was it covered ?” We can use the quarter increments as pace indicators.

The pace scenario might be that the first quarter went in 22 seconds , the second in 23 seconds, and the final in 25 seconds. From that senario we can surmise a fast early pace which slowed down at the end. We could re-arrange the quarter times differently and get a different interprettion. For instnce we could have a pedestrian first quarter and a fast last quarter or the middle quarter could be the fastest quarter.

Again, speed refers to how much distance the horse covered or run in a specific time and pace refers to how fast the horse covered or run a specific distance.

skate
01-07-2008, 04:03 PM
I would tend to think this type of upset would be more due to class than pace.

agree.
also add, form among many other factors.

But for zilly to think that Pace somehow overcame Speed, only because of the pace... gets F minus.

skate
01-07-2008, 04:07 PM
Two horses run the same final time. I'll take the one ahead at the second call every time.

that's form

46zilzal
01-07-2008, 04:09 PM
agree.
also add, form among many other factors.

But for zilly to think that Pace somehow overcame Speed, only because of the pace... gets F minus.

As per usual your interpretation is about as close to reality as Cleveland is to Milan.

46zilzal
01-07-2008, 04:10 PM
that's form
No that's reaction to pace pressure........or the lack of it.

DJofSD
01-07-2008, 04:11 PM
Score: ZZ 2, skate 0.

Capper Al
01-07-2008, 06:36 PM
Sorry that I wasn’t clear to you and I will try explain speed and pace in a different manner.

Speed refers to how much distance the horse covered or run in a specific time. For instance, if a horse had run 6f in 1:10 seconds, its speed would be ¾ mile per 70 seconds or about 38.6 mph.

Pace refers to how fast the horse covered or run a specific distance. If we would go back to the above example and say the horse covered the the 6f in 1:10 seconds and then ask the question at “What pace or how fast was it covered ?” We can use the quarter increments as pace indicators.

The pace scenario might be that the first quarter went in 22 seconds , the second in 23 seconds, and the final in 25 seconds. From that senario we can surmise a fast early pace which slowed down at the end. We could re-arrange the quarter times differently and get a different interprettion. For instnce we could have a pedestrian first quarter and a fast last quarter or the middle quarter could be the fastest quarter.

Again, speed refers to how much distance the horse covered or run in a specific time and pace refers to how fast the horse covered or run a specific distance.

I do have a feel for what you are getting at and agree that early pace can have a devastating effect on final time.

Capper Al
01-07-2008, 06:40 PM
As per usual your interpretation is about as close to reality as Cleveland is to Milan.

Without facts or argument that others could understand.

46zilzal
01-07-2008, 06:47 PM
Without facts or argument that others could understand.
You just arrived here late friend. I don't need to explain 40 years of success to you, nor do I care to.

Read many of the books on Sartin, then practice for about 15 years and YOU TOO will understand all of it's in's and out's and the widespread usage that translates to almost every, ALMOST every track it is applied to.

To most it is voodoo, UNTIL the day that light clicks on and then you laugh that it did not click long before that.

Capper Al
01-07-2008, 06:52 PM
You just arrived here late friend. I don't need to explain 40 years of success to you, nor do I care to.

Read many of the books on Sartin, then practice for about 15 years and YOU TOO will understand all of it's in's and out's and the widespread usage that translates to almost every, ALMOST every track it is applied to.

To most it is voodoo, UNTIL the day that light clicks on and then you laugh that it did not click long before that.

Aren't we the anger one. Post #1 explains my belief right or wrong. It's open for debate. It is said that if you can't explain it then you really don't know it.

46zilzal
01-07-2008, 11:44 PM
Aren't we the anger one. Post #1 explains my belief right or wrong. It's open for debate. It is said that if you can't explain it then you really don't know it.
Not a bit. You just are so much a rookie that you are not able to converse intelligently about pace. Simple.

Let some experience traverse your neurons and then, when you understand the concepts (pace vs. speed) then maybe you will be conversant. You are no where close to that today.

Greyfox
01-07-2008, 11:50 PM
Not a bit. You just are so much a rookie that you are not able to converse intelligently about pace. Simple.

Let some experience traverse your neurons and then, when you understand the concepts (pace vs. speed) then maybe you will be conversant. You are no where close to that today.

46Zil....You have such a wonderful way with encouraging words that make a lot of this board's posters feel so good when you interact with them. :lol:
I luv it. :ThmbUp:

46zilzal
01-07-2008, 11:56 PM
46Zil....You have such a wonderful way with encouraging words that make a lot of this board's posters feel so good when you interact with them.
I luv it.
A spade becomes a spade. Never had difficulty with that.

If I was talking about drug interactions, I would not want to have to explain protein binding, the dose/response curve, or common modes of drug metabolism to my audience unless it was a BASIC course in pharmacology.

Same goes here: come to talk about pace?...... get by high school pace 101, 102, and 103 before you start telling experienced others all about it..That's all.

Greyfox
01-07-2008, 11:58 PM
[QUOTE=46zilzal]A spade becomes a spade. Never had difficulty with that.

QUOTE]

I believe you. :ThmbUp: Somehow though I think that CapperAl does okay too at the ponies.

46zilzal
01-07-2008, 11:59 PM
[QUOTE=46zilzal]A spade becomes a spade. Never had difficulty with that.

QUOTE]

I believe you. :ThmbUp: Somehow though I think that CapperAl does okay too at the ponies.

Never even thought about that, nor considered the wagering part. Wagering is mutually exclusive to handicapping as it always has been. He doesn't have too good a handle on pace concepts however.

Valuist
01-08-2008, 12:28 AM
Capper Al-

Do you play mostly synthetic tracks? I can see a newer group of handicappers totally not understanding pace due to that damned fake crap they've put in. As for real dirt, if one doesn't understand the essence of pace, they are missing out on arguably the number one variable.

Besides the dueler who survives or outlasts the other speed, the horse who ran well trying to close into a slow pace often ends up as a big overlay (see I Lost My Choo from Sunday's GP 4th who closed well against a crawlfest pace in his last race).

cmoore
01-08-2008, 12:39 AM
I never go 10 races back..5 races back and that's it..It just simplifys things for me.



Where the majority of people LOSE out is in NOT understanding what pace pressure does to each horse. One cannot focus on a single line in the past performance. The horse has met various pressures over it's last 10 races and one has to figure out it's typical (if possible) response to the various pace scenarios it has overcome vs. the ones where it collapsed. Then on top of that is the form cycle which the horse usually can tell you if you look at the right numbers.

Right there looking at you if you have the gumption to find them.

cmoore
01-08-2008, 12:56 AM
Horse (A)who runs even in a race. All pace figures the same. Compared to horse (B)who ran above avg 1st, 2nd call pace figures then a below avg late pace fig and horse (A) received a 2 pt higher speed figure..Who would you take??

Greyfox
01-08-2008, 01:00 AM
Right there looking at you if you have the gumption to find them.

Absolutely true 46Zil. I find that the DRF lines and other info are all there telling you what is coming the majority of the time. The ability to "digest" it though is another story, but it is right there looking at you if you have the gumption..." :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 01:01 AM
Horse (A)who runs even in a race. All pace figures the same. Compared to horse (B)who ran above avg 1st, 2nd call pace figures then a below avg late pace fig and horse (A) received a 2 pt higher speed figure..Who would you take??
There are no average figures. Just what they ran against and what they overcame or were overcome by, nothing else.

Also, one NEVER evaluates a horse from a single line. No two race fields bring together the same pace mix-ups so why should ONE race, influenced by those varied and different pressures be chosen as representative of the horses entire 10 races? Any particular ONE of those races will never likely happen with just the same entrants in just the same state of form again.

It would be akin to evaluating a hitter via one time at the plate against a single pitcher vs. how he did in his last several to bats. SAMPLE error would be rampant in the first example, far less so in the second.

northerndancer
01-08-2008, 01:32 AM
I never go 10 races back..5 races back and that's it..It just simplifys things for me.

IMO you need to go back as far as a year if you want to be serious. The fact is horses will cycle they will have peaks and valleys and you need more than 5 or 10 lines to be able to spot the peaks and valleys.

Also 46zil is so right on point about pace. That is why watching video replay is so critical because you can actually determine what the jock was doing with the horse and how the race played out between calls. Just reading the lines from the DRF or some other publication tells about 30% of what went on in a race.

46zil I believe comes from the Toronto area and is very familar with Woodbine therefore I can attest that he knows pace because prior to the polytrack it was all about pace at Woodbine. If there was a lack of pace in a race just find the horse that was going to get the lead and they would not look back......

A quality handicapper needs the following to be successful:

1. The running lines with more credence to most recent performances,;
2. Running lines as far back as a year to spot peaks and valleys and running trends in the horse;
3. Video replay for trip handicapping;
4. The understanding of how each of the jockeys in a race tend to interact with the other jockeys in a race....... if you know that one jock has a grudge with another jock and they are both on front running horses neither one will be giving it up is just one example;
5. Be able to be flexible to adjust as the day progresses in relation to how pace has effected the previous races during the race card;

cmoore
01-08-2008, 04:27 AM
If you had to answer the following 2 questions out of these possible answers..Speed figures, Pace figures, Class ratings, Race ratings, Jockey stats and Trainer stats. If you had to eliminate one category, which one would it be? Mine would be jockey stats...What would be the last category eliminated out of the 6 possible answers? Mine would be pace figures. Pace figures are the most important in my opinion.

cmoore
01-08-2008, 04:39 AM
We think totally different and that's alright. I don't care or want to know what kind of form the horse I'm considering today did 12 months ago..sometimes 6 months ago if he's had a 4 or 5 races in the last 6 months..I print my pps with only 5 races back for each runner and the workouts blended in between races. Also no ML odds. Any races over 180 days back are grayed out. Current form is so much more important then previous form. Especially if the horse has been claimed or changed hands. There are occasions where a horse runs well of long layoffs and I might miss that only going back 5 races. But overall it makes handicapping easier and I concentrate on the horses most recent form. I play contests at DHC on a daily basis and am 2nd on the money leader board. Since I started printing my pps this way and started using procaps software, my handicapping has improved trememendously.



IMO you need to go back as far as a year if you want to be serious. The fact is horses will cycle they will have peaks and valleys and you need more than 5 or 10 lines to be able to spot the peaks and valleys.

Also 46zil is so right on point about pace. That is why watching video replay is so critical because you can actually determine what the jock was doing with the horse and how the race played out between calls. Just reading the lines from the DRF or some other publication tells about 30% of what went on in a race.

46zil I believe comes from the Toronto area and is very familar with Woodbine therefore I can attest that he knows pace because prior to the polytrack it was all about pace at Woodbine. If there was a lack of pace in a race just find the horse that was going to get the lead and they would not look back......

A quality handicapper needs the following to be successful:

1. The running lines with more credence to most recent performances,;
2. Running lines as far back as a year to spot peaks and valleys and running trends in the horse;
3. Video replay for trip handicapping;
4. The understanding of how each of the jockeys in a race tend to interact with the other jockeys in a race....... if you know that one jock has a grudge with another jock and they are both on front running horses neither one will be giving it up is just one example;
5. Be able to be flexible to adjust as the day progresses in relation to how pace has effected the previous races during the race card;

nobeyerspls
01-08-2008, 09:42 AM
Aren't we the anger one. Post #1 explains my belief right or wrong. It's open for debate. It is said that if you can't explain it then you really don't know it.

I don't have a dog in this fight but he, and others who use pace figures, do not have an obligation to explain their use. I too have been told to read the books. When I asked that someone demonstrate them by handicapping a maiden race I had no respone.
46 could help you understand pace figure handicapping by demonstrating its use in a Gulfstream maiden race. If the two of you agree on which race to use, he could handicap it his way and you could do it your way and then all would see its value and he would expose the limitations inherent in your approach.
As an innocent but interested bystander, I too would learn something.

Tom
01-08-2008, 09:52 AM
If I remember correctly, you wanted a maiden winner that also paid 10-1. Not the same as wanting an example of how to use pace figures. If I gave you an example after the fact, everyone would be shouting redboard! To get a 10-1 winner, how many races do I have to handicap and post before the race?
Not worth the bother.

Greyfox
01-08-2008, 09:56 AM
When I asked that someone demonstrate them by handicapping a maiden race I had no respone.
.

Tom is absolutely correct. You had "responses." We gave you a maiden winner.

cmoore
01-08-2008, 10:34 AM
TSN Pace and Speed Pars:The AVERAGE pace and speed ratings for the leader/winner of races at todays class level and distance..

You say there are no averages but tsn uses avg in thier pace and speed par definition. That's my starting point in every race. Who has ran par? If only one horse runs above the pace figure averages early in a race. That type of horse will win more then it's fair share of races. I know one race doesn't show everything a horse is capable of, but going back ten races to me is a waste of time. I want to look at his current form. Not what he did 10 races ago or 8 months ago. You look ten races back on every runner in a race and try to figure out who's at the bottom or top of thier cycle. For me that's nothing but chaos.


There are no average figures. Just what they ran against and what they overcame or were overcome by, nothing else.

Also, one NEVER evaluates a horse from a single line. No two race fields bring together the same pace mix-ups so why should ONE race, influenced by those varied and different pressures be chosen as representative of the horses entire 10 races? Any particular ONE of those races will never likely happen with just the same entrants in just the same state of form again.

It would be akin to evaluating a hitter via one time at the plate against a single pitcher vs. how he did in his last several to bats. SAMPLE error would be rampant in the first example, far less so in the second.

nobeyerspls
01-08-2008, 11:17 AM
If I remember correctly, you wanted a maiden winner that also paid 10-1. Not the same as wanting an example of how to use pace figures. If I gave you an example after the fact, everyone would be shouting redboard! To get a 10-1 winner, how many races do I have to handicap and post before the race?
Not worth the bother.

Your right, I was looking for a 10-1 winner. The synapses per neuron weaken with age and excessive beer drinking so I stand corrected.
I guess I lowered the bar here for 46 so he could give CapperAl a real-time demonstration. This isn't a challenge and no matter what the race outcome would be, the thought process and application would be interesting.

nobeyerspls
01-08-2008, 11:19 AM
Tom is absolutely correct. You had "responses." We gave you a maiden winner.

See my reponse to Tom. I forgot about the 10-1 target I set. First mistake on here this year and it's only early January.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 11:26 AM
I know one race doesn't show everything a horse is capable of, but going back ten races to me is a waste of time. I want to look at his current form. Not what he did 10 races ago or 8 months ago. You look ten races back on every runner in a race and try to figure out who's at the bottom or top of thier cycle. For me that's nothing but chaos.
Too bad you see it that way. The cyclical nature of horse from (read all about it in the great book Thoroughbred Cycles) shows that SOME horses have a long cycle which can reproduce form that has not been extant in 8 to 10 races. It behooves the cogent handicapper to see what that long term history provides in understanding said animal. MOST do not return to it, but one has to be ever aware of some horses returning that way again as a yardstick to what they are capable.

The old par nonsense LOCKS improvement to a narrow margin which is not reality.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 11:29 AM
46 could help you understand pace figure handicapping by demonstrating its use in a Gulfstream maiden race. If the two of you agree on which race to use, he could handicap it his way and you could do it your way and then all would see its value and he would expose the limitations inherent in your approach.

Maybe IF he played that track....and ONE race does not a handicapping style define nor test...

Best bet on maidens: bet one of them who will be on top at the second call. Has worked for years and most of my longest prices were there (several over 40-1).

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 11:32 AM
46zil I believe comes from the Toronto area and is very familar with Woodbine therefore I can attest that he knows pace because prior to the polytrack it was all about pace at Woodbine.
Not this week. Maybe next year as I am now a judge for the year end Sovereign Awards, but am ON the other coast....always have been.

Tom
01-08-2008, 11:53 AM
Your right, I was looking for a 10-1 winner. The synapses per neuron weaken with age and excessive beer drinking so I stand corrected.
I guess I lowered the bar here for 46 so he could give CapperAl a real-time demonstration. This isn't a challenge and no matter what the race outcome would be, the thought process and application would be interesting.

If I can keep my neurons thawed out, I'll try a couple this weekend if not sooner:p

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 12:45 PM
MY previous Quote:Best bet on maidens: bet one of them who will be on top at the second call. Has worked for years and most of my longest prices were there (several over 40-1).

First race today at Tampa Bay Downs. These horses signal their graduation by learning to apportion their speed further into races as the three did here.

A normal splitzacta as the other half of the improving speed runs third.

1st race - Tampa Bay Downs - January 08, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 It's My Turn Now 36.60 14.00 6.80
5 Gaelic Gold 3.60 2.40
4 Honorway 4.00

$2 Exacta 3-5 138.80
$2 Trifecta 3-5-4 816.80

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 12:48 PM
Again at a bigger representation.

nobeyerspls
01-08-2008, 01:12 PM
Maybe IF he played that track....and ONE race does not a handicapping style define nor test...

Best bet on maidens: bet one of them who will be on top at the second call. Has worked for years and most of my longest prices were there (several over 40-1).

Thanks for the reply and the chart that followed. Looking back over last year this came into play with my biggest score. The winning filly was 20-1 and she moved to the lead at the 2nd call and held on for her first win. The thing is that there was no way to predict that from her dismal past performances.
Another one was involved in a huge trifecta (ran 2nd) and it was easy to see that she would have the lead at the 2nd call. She was 15-1 ML bet down to 7-1. She won the race but bore out badly in the final seventy yards, impeding a 52-1.
Since my wagering this year is limited to maidens and turf, I'll look for this.

Cratos
01-08-2008, 01:24 PM
Thanks for the reply and the chart that followed. Looking back over last year this came into play with my biggest score. The winning filly was 20-1 and she moved to the lead at the 2nd call and held on for her first win. The thing is that there was no way to predict that from her dismal past performances.
Another one was involved in a huge trifecta (ran 2nd) and it was easy to see that she would have the lead at the 2nd call. She was 15-1 ML bet down to 7-1. She won the race but bore out badly in the final seventy yards, impeding a 52-1.
Since my wagering this year is limited to maidens and turf, I'll look for this.


Nobeyerspls,

Reading through this thread about pace and speed there appear to be two focuses and neither is wrong. One is a conceptual focus which attempts to define pace and speed; and how those variables apply to a horserace. The other is a practical approach which uses an applied methodology to demonstrate the use and application of speed and pace.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 01:56 PM
Horses run in habitual patterns, when they are in form. By surveying an entire 10 race segment, one can see when the PERFORMER is doing what they are capable of (repeating successful performances) and not be skewed into thinking a single race represents the whole. Case in point is the 4th race at Philly today.

4th race - Philadelphia Park - January 08, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
2 Lion Song 6.80 3.40 3.20
4 Farragots Follies 4.80 3.40
1 Twenty One Victor 7.00

$2 Daily Double 6-2 66.40
$2 Exacta 2-4 32.80

By going further back in the pp's you can see that the winner had other lines that showed what it could do, via the same run, several times and then did again.

Tee
01-08-2008, 03:41 PM
http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf

15 mtp who wins this one based upon speed and/or pace?

I'm thinking 3 & 4 prominent throughout.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 03:50 PM
http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf

15 mtp who wins this one based upon speed and/or pace?

I'm thinking 3 & 4 prominent throughout.
never use anything from Happy Broadbent.
Not a good betting race.

Quick view, would not bet it can't separate 1, 3 or the 4 from the clouds.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 04:04 PM
Could see why the 2 was going to be there also. It's all about speed there in the cold as the top three second call horses ran 1-2-3.
9th race - Philadelphia Park - January 08, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Cat Criminal 6.20 3.40 2.60
2 El Chile Dog 4.80 3.40
1 Jane's Kid 2.40

$2 Daily Double 2-3 38.60

Tee
01-08-2008, 04:09 PM
never use anything from Happy Broadbent.
Not a good betting race.

Quick view, would not bet it can't separate 1, 3 or the 4 from the clouds.

The Broadbent family no longer in place.

Who cares if you would bet or not. Identifying the possible winner/contenders is handicapping not wagering.

As you said earlier "Wagering is mutually exclusive to handicapping as it always has been."

njcurveball
01-08-2008, 04:12 PM
never use anything from Happy Broadbent.



Do you have any good reasons behind this, or is it just your "mantra" in life? I have also heard I should never play poker with a man who has the first name of a state. :sleeping:

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 04:21 PM
Do you have any good reasons behind this, or is it just your "mantra" in life? I have also heard I should never play poker with a man who has the first name of a state.
That gentleman screwed a good friend of mine out of a significant portion of money and I honor his point of view in not using a service my friend was part of but never got paid.

Capper Al
01-08-2008, 04:26 PM
[QUOTE=46zilzal]A spade becomes a spade. Never had difficulty with that.

QUOTE]

I believe you. :ThmbUp: Somehow though I think that CapperAl does okay too at the ponies.

I do well and have won some small contests. My top picks here have done well at PA also. I may not have had the sense to play my top picks, but that's another story which I believe I have under control now.

Capper Al
01-08-2008, 04:35 PM
Capper Al-

Do you play mostly synthetic tracks? I can see a newer group of handicappers totally not understanding pace due to that damned fake crap they've put in. As for real dirt, if one doesn't understand the essence of pace, they are missing out on arguably the number one variable.

Besides the dueler who survives or outlasts the other speed, the horse who ran well trying to close into a slow pace often ends up as a big overlay (see I Lost My Choo from Sunday's GP 4th who closed well against a crawlfest pace in his last race).

The synthetic tracks are difficult. They haven't bothered me too much because I'm a comprehensive handicapper and pace is only one factor out of many. The pace boys haven't been able to crack the nut. You'll know it when you see a book with a title like Pace and the Synthetic Track. They love to sell books. Count on it.

Capper Al
01-08-2008, 04:42 PM
If you had to answer the following 2 questions out of these possible answers..Speed figures, Pace figures, Class ratings, Race ratings, Jockey stats and Trainer stats. If you had to eliminate one category, which one would it be? Mine would be jockey stats...What would be the last category eliminated out of the 6 possible answers? Mine would be pace figures. Pace figures are the most important in my opinion.

I agree with you on the Jockey stats. You could live without them. As to what is the best to keep, I would have to say Speed. Speed has the single best win percentage. Remember, I have been promoting Speed as the first sort before Pace just like many authors do.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 04:45 PM
The synthetic tracks are difficult. They haven't bothered me too much because I'm a comprehensive handicapper and pace is only one factor out of many. The pace boys haven't been able to crack the nut. You'll know it when you see a book with a title like Pace and the Synthetic Track. They love to sell books. Count on it.

The PACE boys, rationally, HAVE done what you call impossible by doing what they have done for a long time: BUILDING a track model from hundreds of races based upon standards for energy distribution by surface and distance.

My friend TK in Minnesota (one of the sharpest handicappers I have ever had the pleasure to know) makes most of his money at Keeneland, using the same software, and a lot more patience that I have in knowing that surface, which is NOT the same as Arlington, which is NOT the same as Hollywood, which is NOT the same as Woodbine, which is NOT the same as GGF, which is NOT the same as Presque Island, and which is NOT the same as Santa Anita or Del Mar.

Dirt and turf have commonalities but the synthetics are unique to one another. To understand them as a whole, one must have standards for each.

cmoore
01-08-2008, 05:05 PM
Speed figures is old school. Try finding a 20-1 shot with the highest speed figure. It rarely happens. Try finding a 20-1 shot with the highest early pace figures. It will happen more then the top speed figure. Let's put it like this. If you were to handicapp 50 races with just speed figures and I used just pace figures which does include the late pace figure. I would dominate because you wouldn't know how that horse got his speed figure number. Also you wouldn't know how the race is going to set up. This thread has given me an idea..What if I were to eliminate speed figures from my pps? That just might work. Very very Interesting.


I agree with you on the Jockey stats. You could live without them. As to what is the best to keep, I would have to say Speed. Speed has the single best win percentage. Remember, I have been promoting Speed as the first sort before Pace just like many authors do.

46zilzal
01-08-2008, 05:07 PM
OFTEN the highest speed figures I see in the pp's were against the SLOWEST pace. Of course than ran fast the whole contest there was NO challenge.

Capper Al
01-08-2008, 07:58 PM
The PACE boys, rationally, HAVE done what you call impossible by doing what they have done for a long time: BUILDING a track model from hundreds of races based upon standards for energy distribution by surface and distance.

My friend TK in Minnesota (one of the sharpest handicappers I have ever had the pleasure to know) makes most of his money at Keeneland, using the same software, and a lot more patience that I have in knowing that surface, which is NOT the same as Arlington, which is NOT the same as Hollywood, which is NOT the same as Woodbine, which is NOT the same as GGF, which is NOT the same as Presque Island, and which is NOT the same as Santa Anita or Del Mar.

Dirt and turf have commonalities but the synthetics are unique to one another. To understand them as a whole, one must have standards for each.

I don't have a problem with setting up a model to do analysis of one's local track. And I don't doubt that the Pace model still works on synthetics because they are matching their model. It is their conclusion about early speed that isn't as universal as once thought.

Capper Al
01-08-2008, 08:04 PM
Speed figures is old school. Try finding a 20-1 shot with the highest speed figure. It rarely happens. Try finding a 20-1 shot with the highest early pace figures. It will happen more then the top speed figure. Let's put it like this. If you were to handicapp 50 races with just speed figures and I used just pace figures which does include the late pace figure. I would dominate because you wouldn't know how that horse got his speed figure number. Also you wouldn't know how the race is going to set up. This thread has given me an idea..What if I were to eliminate speed figures from my pps? That just might work. Very very Interesting.

You are probably right about speed not producing as many long shots anymore. Pace does seem to produce more than its fair share of shots. Still just hitting on percentage of winners without regard to ROI, Speed is king. They may be chalk, but they are winners. Wagering is a whole other story.

Tom
01-08-2008, 08:29 PM
It hasn't moved in weeks! :rolleyes:

First_Place
01-08-2008, 11:45 PM
Originally Posted by First_Place

"Speed figures reign as the top single factor alone for predicting a race."

(Shaking my head) If only Doc Sartin could read your (misinformed) statements.

FP

CapperAl incorrectly presumed:

"Sartin would be disappointed in your statement above."

Nonsense (what I'd really like to say is: "horseshit." Oops, I just did :D ).

"Sartin was big in studying what works."

No kidding. Sort of like ME.

"I am not a speed handicapper, yet my studies and others find that speed is still the number one single lone factor."

In YOUR humble(?) opinion.

FP

Greyfox
01-09-2008, 12:10 AM
The PACE boys, rationally, HAVE done what you call impossible by doing what they have done for a long time: BUILDING a track model from hundreds of races based upon standards for energy distribution by surface and distance.

.

Psst. Quit telling.

JustMissed
01-09-2008, 10:51 AM
Again at a bigger representation.

What program are your screen shots from?

JM

46zilzal
01-09-2008, 11:19 AM
What program are your screen shots from?


Speculator by Guy Wadsworth. It is now in it's 6th iteration.

JustMissed
01-09-2008, 11:24 AM
Speculator by Guy Wadsworth. It is now in it's 6th iteration.

Thanks,

JM

Capper Al
01-09-2008, 04:37 PM
It hasn't moved in weeks! :rolleyes:

I think I bet on that dead horse.

Capper Al
01-09-2008, 04:46 PM
Tom is right. This argument hasn't moved one way or another. The vocal support for the Pace side comes from users of Pace handicapping software. My argument is based on a pencil and paper handicapping approach explanation. I'm looking at the idea and, presumably, the software boys are looking at their results. We need to talk with other paper and pencil pace handicappers to advance our points here.

Greyfox
01-09-2008, 06:08 PM
My argument is based on a pencil and paper handicapping approach explanation. I'm looking at the idea and, presumably, the software boys are looking at their results. .

One doesn't need a computer to do pace handicapping. For some, not even pencil and paper either.

46zilzal
01-09-2008, 06:14 PM
Agree, there are many a race at the few speed demon tracks I follow that require a few minute scan. The ones who qualify stick out with observation, little else of relevance.

First_Place
01-09-2008, 08:17 PM
CapperAl said:

"The vocal support for the Pace side comes from users of Pace handicapping software. My argument is based on a pencil and paper handicapping approach explanation."

Not necessarily. Total Pace Ratings can be calculated via "pencil and paper," and do VERY well, thank you. Just ask Dick Schmidt if you don't believe me.

Regards,

FP

GaryG
01-09-2008, 08:21 PM
CapperAl said:

"The vocal support for the Pace side comes from users of Pace handicapping software. My argument is based on a pencil and paper handicapping approach explanation."

Not necessarily. Total Pace Ratings can be calculated via "pencil and paper," and do VERY well, thank you. Just ask Dick Schmidt if you don't believe me.

Regards,

FPAmen to that. I have used TPR rfor many moons and it works as well as it ever did.

riskman
01-09-2008, 09:33 PM
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: It is the same old rehash, except Spiteri is calling himself CapperAl.

Surely there are many ways to handicap horses. I know a man who does very well with "bloodlines." I couldn't handicap that way if my life depended on it. Another man uses position, form factors , and class a la William Scott.
Anyone who would come here and knock any style of handicapping and in particular pace handicapping on a board named "Pace Advantage" is simply pulling chains. Don't bite.

Yes, Greyfox, you hit the nail on the head .An effective Pace Handicapping Process and gaining an understanding of how a race is "likely" to play out is stimulating and can identify high priced horses that surprise everyone and cause exotic payoffs to skyrocket. Like most here, I beleive in a comprehensive approach to handicapping.This includes the horse’s suitability to the distance and surface, current form, class level, speed figures, jockey and trainer ratings and other ratings, ie. breeding, wet, turf ratings, equipment etc.

Capper Al
01-10-2008, 12:20 PM
CapperAl said:

"The vocal support for the Pace side comes from users of Pace handicapping software. My argument is based on a pencil and paper handicapping approach explanation."

Not necessarily. Total Pace Ratings can be calculated via "pencil and paper," and do VERY well, thank you. Just ask Dick Schmidt if you don't believe me.

Regards,

FP

How about if I believe. I always like to review handicapping formulas. Where is the paper and pencil approach to TPR published?

GaryG
01-10-2008, 12:32 PM
How about if I believe. I always like to review handicapping formulas. Where is the paper and pencil approach to TPR published?Pace Makes the Race by Dick Schmidt and Tom Hambleton. Dick probably still has some in his garage.

46zilzal
01-10-2008, 12:43 PM
Pace Makes the Race by Dick Schmidt and Tom Hambleton. Dick probably still has some in his garage.
This, in turn came from Talbout.