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View Full Version : Odds betting strategy, if I understand Odds right


podonne
01-03-2008, 03:11 PM
This may seem like a daft question, but... I understand odds to mean that if a horse has odds of 3-1, then you can convert that to percentages to say he has a 25% chance of winning the race (based on http://www.oddsonracing.com/bettors_corner_oe_odds.cfm) , that's to say, the public thinks he has a 25% chance to cross the finish line first.

So if you look at a very large group of horses who went off at 3-1 odds, you should see that 25% of those horses ended up winning, and 75% of those lost. If you bet on horses in this group, you need them to win 25% of races to break even. I want to make sure I got that right.

Because it seems that if you can find a track or a type of race where 3-1 horses come in 30% of the time, you should be able to just bet all of them and make money.

This seems to simplistic to be true, but I can't find the fault in the logic. Surely someone here can bring me down.

BillW
01-03-2008, 03:17 PM
You probably should add takeout to your figures. i.e. the 3-1 before take is more like 2-1 on the tote board.

njcurveball
01-03-2008, 03:20 PM
So if you look at a very large group of horses who went off at 3-1 odds, you should see that 25% of those horses ended up winning, and 75% of those lost. If you bet on horses in this group, you need them to win 25% of races to break even. I want to make sure I got that right.



You have the Math correct. However, most people who have home grown and the ones that use commerical programs fail to understand that this is the group average.

I have seen selections here where they said the program makes the horse a 3-1 shot and the odds will never go below 20-1. The crowd is NEVER that wrong. Well let me say that with at least $5,000 or so in the win pool, the crowd is NEVER that wrong.

I would doubt that over the course of a month at a single track there are more than dozen horses going off at double their actual win probability.

But remember the group view has many divergences either plus or minus. Within that group of 3-1 horses, you may find 5% are a 50% overlay and another 5% are a 50% underlay.

For most there is a basic odds minimum strategy that works better than the elaborate value parameters and for most basic flat betting works better than any elaborate money management scheme as well.

The problem today is that the majority is just not interested in betting to win. For most good handicappers a simple odds minimum of 4/6/8 would turn a profit.

Simply said, write down your top choices as if you are trying to pick the winner. If your #1 choice is 4-1 or more, it is a bet. #2 choice at 6-1 or more and #3 choice at 8-1 or more.

For most good handicappers, their 3rd choice will be bet more frequently than their first.

But even in todays world with elaborate computer programs and Black Magic, this simple strategy can turn a profit for the good handicapper who is disciplined enough to follow it.

Jim

Spectacular Sid
01-03-2008, 04:29 PM
I think the DRF's American Racing Manual used to publish a page with a table showing odds and percentages that are used by handicappers to make what was called a 'balanced' morning line. If memory serves, the points are supposed to add up to about 120 (which I presume is 100% plus takeout) and the odds/points are something like this:


4-5 odds=55 pts
1-1=50
6-5=45
7-5=42
8-5=38
9-5=35
2-1=33
5-2=28
3-1=25
7-2=22
4-1=20
9-2=19
5-1=16
6-1=14
8-1=12
10-1=11
12-1=8
15-1=6
20-1=4
30-1=2

kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2008, 07:17 PM
I'll try!LOL!!
"The public" does not bet consistently enough in the FUTURE to make it work.
But as long as your value odds are below tote odds you win.
But some specific types of circumstance the public often overbets on, you may want to look for those to bet against (false underlay favorites?). Like last time winner or early speed that fades.
Personally I like betting on every horse with odds of 20-1 to 40-1 in routes.