Early money

[Tape Reader]

Hi all,
I think I have Ernie Simons to thank for this.
As a tote board reader at the track, I only paid attention to the last ten minutes, or so. Now that I have my software computerized, I realize that the early money is very significant. I now give precedence to a horse that opens BELOW the ML. I rank them by pts/pct below the ML.
I can't back this up with statistics as my "homegrown" software is not capable of backtesting, but there have been some box car numbers.
Can any of you geeks (smiling) give this a go?
Thank you all in advance

[dutchboy]

How do you know if the ML is legit? Is there anyway of knowing what it is based on or who is creating the ML? What do you do when the ML maker at a track is also running a private tip service and adjusting the ML to his advantage.



Hi all,
I think I have Ernie Simons to thank for this.
As a tote board reader at the track, I only paid attention to the last ten minutes, or so. Now that I have my software computerized, I realize that the early money is very significant. I now give precedence to a horse that opens BELOW the ML. I rank them by pts/pct below the ML.
I can't back this up with statistics as my "homegrown" software is not capable of backtesting, but there have been some box car numbers.
Can any of you geeks (smiling) give this a go?
Thank you all in advance

[phatbastard]

.....i personally know a guy who will find a race he really likes, and make 400 -500 win bets as soon as windows open on a horse he hates that looks ok on paper, only to cancel the bet with 5 minutes to post....its amazing how this horse will take disapportionate exacta money from those scurrying to cover

who knows if this gives him any edge....

[Tape Reader]

How do you know if the ML is legit? Is there anyway of knowing what it is based on or who is creating the ML? What do you do when the ML maker at a track is also running a private tip service and adjusting the ML to his advantage.

A correct ML is a big leap of faith, and it is troublesome. NY and CA work best.
I saw a recent comment on this board that Eric Donovan (NY) is a very good ML maker. I agree.
As far as "shananagans", sticking with big tracks somewhat mitigates that.

[Kelso]

A correct ML is a big leap of faith, and it is troublesome. NY and CA work best.


Seems to be a natural for annual analysis by one or more of the racing publications:
On average, and ideally by distance/surface/class/field, how do M/L odds stack up against post odds at each track? Smaller variances would suggest better M/L makers.

Anybody know of anything along these lines?

[oddsmaven]

...the opening flashes in NY can point out a strong horse, but there are "early money" type horses that are generally terrible :ThmbDown: ...those with seconditis tend to open up too low as to cheap horses...entries get early money and so do a host of other situations that don't mean anything special, so you have to know what the expectations are first to evaluate what's important.

[1GCFAN]

.....i personally know a guy who will find a race he really likes, and make 400 -500 win bets as soon as windows open on a horse he hates that looks ok on paper, only to cancel the bet with 5 minutes to post....its amazing how this horse will take disapportionate exacta money from those scurrying to cover

who knows if this gives him any edge....

In the old days when you had a bunch of uninformed bettors some did would go after the early action horse. However, those folks don't come to track much these days. Also, in old days I have seen a bettor like the one in your post escorted to the door.

[Dan Montilion]

At a NoCal fair meet ages ago I wagered an early $1100 to win on a horse I hated. The hope was to drive the price up on a horse I liked. I went through all the motions, large bet early and bit more late and then the cancel and bet on my sure thing. I went to my vantage point and watched the horse I bet early and hated win. On the way out of the track and between talking to myself I heard more than one "somebody knew something." To any long time followers of NoCal the winning rider was Arthur Ochoa so you know how long ago that was, I have never tried this stunt since.

[rutalkingtome55]

.....i personally know a guy who will find a race he really likes, and make 400 -500 win bets as soon as windows open on a horse he hates that looks ok on paper, only to cancel the bet with 5 minutes to post....its amazing how this horse will take disapportionate exacta money from those scurrying to cover

who knows if this gives him any edge....

This will not make a big difference at the larger tracks, but lets say a los alimotos track it could. :sleeping:

[rutalkingtome55]

Hi all,
I think I have Ernie Simons to thank for this.
As a tote board reader at the track, I only paid attention to the last ten minutes, or so. Now that I have my software computerized, I realize that the early money is very significant. I now give precedence to a horse that opens BELOW the ML. I rank them by pts/pct below the ML.
I can't back this up with statistics as my "homegrown" software is not capable of backtesting, but there have been some box car numbers.
Can any of you geeks (smiling) give this a go?
Thank you all in advance

I have been doing this for a few years, but for me I only do it when the ML odds are, wait I will be giving away my secrets. Never mind.

[Blackgold]

One of my best early money catches is Alvia/Berrio in CA.

Good luck in '08 everyone!

[Gambleonclaimers]

the importance of early money can be great but the importance of overall money is probably a more important factor when reading the tote to try and key in on certain horses it all depends on how your betting and using these and at what tracks 3 of the 4 tracks I play early money ( from window open till 18min to post) means nothing the other one it could be smart money the key is knowing the tracks you play. Some stats ML to opening at tracks I play only 33% winners based on early money of drop from ML 2-3pts.

[Spectacular Sid]

I usually give a long look to horses bet down on the first flash of the tote--especially when they are one-half or less of their morning line odds. Of course, I generally bet SoCal, where the linemaker is pretty good, so I have some faith that it's a relatively accurate line. Not all tracks around the country have competent linemakers.

Saturday at Tampa Bay some horse called "Sweetsouthern"something or other opened as the heavy favorite off a 20-1 morning line in a maiden turf race (sorry to be vague on details, but don't have the data in front of me). I discounted the huge drop, thinking some nut job must have confused the horse with Sweetnorthernsaint and bet a couple grand to win (the win-place pools made the horse second longest shot of the field). Odds drifted up by post time, but horse ran a strong second to Graham Motion trainee.

Like any betting angle, you have to look at other factors and not just the early money odds drop. Did the horse have a particularly bad trip the morning line maker missed? Is there a key jockey switch? Is the trainer on some sort of superjuice hot streak? Sometimes it's stable money after throat surgery, or coming off bad races where something was wrong with a horse that has been corrected.

My first experience with huge early money came in Chicago at Hawthorne racetrack in the 1970s. Horse was 30-1 on the line, was bet down to something like 3-1 and won like 3-5. Turns out it was a ringer, and that night the track burned down, allegedly so the forged papers in the racing office couldn't be checked.

[Spectacular Sid]

This will not make a big difference at the larger tracks, but lets say a los alimotos track it could. :sleeping:

This is why so many tracks stopped letting people cancel tickets after they left the window.

Back when Vegas and Caliente was booking bets, some guys would manipulate odds pools at small tracks by betting a grand or two on no hope horses to show (and not cancel the tickets), then bet a bunch through the bookmakers for a big score. Needless to say they weren't very popular at those books.

[Spectacular Sid]

Disregard quote in my previous quote.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

This will not make a big difference at the larger tracks, but lets say a los alimotos track it could. :sleeping:

Don't know if things have changed but in '97 I went to Los Al and the signs said that any wager of $50 or more could only be cancelled by a human and that they had the right to refuse if they felt pools were being manipulated. 50 measly bucks.

[BlueShoe]

Have always liked early money.The best pattern seems to be a runner that opens way low and has an out of line pool ratio;that is,all the money is on the win end with very little to place or show.In addition,you want a horse that stays low and only rises sharply in price in the last 10 minutes.This often points out the runner that is being bet in steady increments in the early wagering.If a horse rises sharply right after the opening click,it might be just one not very wise guy that caused it.As for Los Al or other tracks that require a trip to a teller to cancel $50 wagers,there is very easy way around this;just bet $10 a wager and keep hitting the repeat button on the Sam.

[offtrack]

When does the ADW money get added to a pool? I've never heard of an explanation as to when off track monies go into pools, altough we see the effect it has on late odds.
Is it possible OTB and ADW money shows early also?

[Spectacular Sid]

Simple answer is I don't know, but I would think it's moved into the pools ASAP after the previous race is made official.

[bigmack]

My first experience with huge early money came in Chicago at Hawthorne racetrack in the 1970s. Horse was 30-1 on the line, was bet down to something like 3-1 and won like 3-5. Turns out it was a ringer, and that night the track burned down, allegedly so the forged papers in the racing office couldn't be checked.
Now there's a story I've not heard, amusing as it was.

Quick Q: As an avid enthusiast for any oddment of Jimmy "The Rug" Traficant; how is it that he found himself situated as your avatar?

[rrpic6]

Now there's a story I've not heard, amusing as it was.

Quick Q: As an avid enthusiast for any oddment of Jimmy "The Rug" Traficant; how is it that he found himself situated as your avatar?

I miss ol' Jimbo! Set my Congressman Free! Nice that you guys know about America's Political Prisoner.

RR

[andicap]

has anyone here studied Devere Grids? ATRpro shows them but the learning scale is apparently on the order of 20 years or so. But for those who master them, they are supposed to be the Holy Grail of betting via the tote.


Las Vegas journalist Jay Richards was a huge proponent/scholar of them and has left some clues as to how they work but that's all. There is nothing on them anywhere I found on the web. (I'm sure any group studying them is working in Skull and Bones type secrecy.)

[Spectacular Sid]

Now there's a story I've not heard, amusing as it was.

Quick Q: As an avid enthusiast for any oddment of Jimmy "The Rug" Traficant; how is it that he found himself situated as your avatar?


The Hawthorne ringer case made its way into a book written by John Macavoy called "Great Horse Racing Mysteries" http://books.google.com/books?id=p2vrYkSAXvsC&pg=PA9&lpg=PA9&dq=hawthorne+fire+ringer+racehorse&source=web&ots=wZp8RS30rr&sig=4T6vwzpJMHgl50KJabrI7h9cKv0

As far as Jimmy T is concerned, whenever I think about doing something with my shiny pate I am reminded by his mug of how ridiculous someone can look with a squirrel tail on the head.

[Overlay]

has anyone here studied Devere Grids? ATRpro shows them but the learning scale is apparently on the order of 20 years or so. But for those who master them, they are supposed to be the Holy Grail of betting via the tote.


Las Vegas journalist Jay Richards was a huge proponent/scholar of them and has left some clues as to how they work but that's all. There is nothing on them anywhere I found on the web. (I'm sure any group studying them is working in Skull and Bones type secrecy.)

Did you recall this PA thread from three years ago? (It might not have the depth or type of information you're looking for, though.)

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-17556.html

[46zilzal]

According to our mutuels manager, OFF track wagering comes in through "pulses" from various hubs around North America. Unlike money coming just FROM the race course, it is periodically dumped, in mass via one click of the board. Unless one could tag the differences within these pulses, how in the world can one "read" the board as in days of old? The new way of simulcasting makes it very difficult and I am told there is often only one or two of these "dumps" during the time coming up to the race, on other days there might be as many as 6 from the same source. From day to day one doesn't know which. If two sources dumped very close to one another, any isolated wagering is blended out.

[Gambleonclaimers]

zilzal, I would agree with you on pulses from OTB and ADW's and you may not know when these pulses come in and how they are distributed. Here is where i think whales and true sharps have an advantage because this involves not only reading the tote but network data patterns as well. This is being done heavily in Japan right now to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars a day.(don't know current exchange rate)lol There system is different then ours so it is easier to accomplish this and there are more than just a few companies doing this. There analysis realies on network data not only money being placed into the pools, but potential money coming down the pipe. These investors could careless who wins the race they are trying to make money and they are businessmen and programers not handicappers. working in large sums of money doesn't hurt either.:D Only a matter of time before its done here

[Norm]

According to our mutuels manager, OFF track wagering comes in through "pulses" from various hubs around North America. Unlike money coming just FROM the race course, it is periodically dumped, in mass via one click of the board. Unless one could tag the differences within these pulses, how in the world can one "read" the board as in days of old? The new way of simulcasting makes it very difficult and I am told there is often only one or two of these "dumps" during the time coming up to the race, on other days there might be as many as 6 from the same source. From day to day one doesn't know which. If two sources dumped very close to one another, any isolated wagering is blended out.

That is the most logical of explaination yet and matches what we actually see during the betting . The answer is that in modern racing with off track wagering, board watching just doesn't work. In the old days, when life was more simple, it was fairly easy. One would note what the public handicappers were touting, compare that to the morning line, compare that to the early money, then wait for the horses to go on the track. The groom, who was the last person to see the horse up-close would give an o.k. and a designated stable employee, maybe the groom himself, would bet the stable money. Board watchers would see the spike in the odds and know which horses had stable money on them. Nice, but doesn't work today. First, because stable money is too small a portion of the pools inflated with off-track money and second, because the spike cannot be positively identified and separated from spikes caused by off-track money. Even the off-track money spikes are not reliable; could be professional money or maybe it's just coming from an area where a popular public handicapper has touted an unexpected horse.

Actually, you can't even use the board to estimate the value of a risk. Sometimes, when I think a horse is so good that I will bet at even money, I find that on the last flash of the board, usually after they're off, my even money bet is now 1-5 and that I'm going to lose even if I win.

[point given]

Different tracks , different patterns of early money vs late money, cannot generalize. I write down the early numbers, and update during betting to read the tote on circuits i am familiar with.

On cancellations, I note that one does not need to be on track with certain ADW companies , as one can cancell bets on your computer. Small fries get only 5 cancels per week, whales, unlimited cancels. While i'm in favor of being able to cancel a wrongly input bet, or change it due to scratches, etc. I do see the possible problems of unlimited cancels wrecking the integrity of the pari mutual tote system, although it can be tracked; however, would an ADW really care if one of their whales cancels alot of bets, as long as he bets his millions with them ? Is there any communications between the tote companies and official orgs of racing ? I would think not. As long as they get their churn and everyone gets their cut, then nothing is wrong. Wouldn't this type of thing, be a little more dangerous than the occasional bet after the bell mania. This would be a regular way of doing business on a regular level which no one notices, or pays attention to. I would be glad to hear of others opinions on this topic.

[BeatTheChalk]

has anyone here studied Devere Grids? ATRpro shows them but the learning scale is apparently on the order of 20 years or so. But for those who master them, they are supposed to be the Holy Grail of betting via the tote.


Las Vegas journalist Jay Richards was a huge proponent/scholar of them and has left some clues as to how they work but that's all. There is nothing on them anywhere I found on the web. (I'm sure any group studying them is working in Skull and Bones type secrecy.)

Didnt Jay Richards used to be the front man .. promoter .. and who knows
what else...for a tout service ..."" HORSE AND JOCKEY ..A POWERFUL
SOURCE FOR WINNERS " Some day I will spill the beans on how they did it..
especially with THE GRAND GOLD Seal .. that nobody ever bought :lol: :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

has anyone here studied Devere Grids? ATRpro shows them but the learning scale is apparently on the order of 20 years or so. But for those who master them, they are supposed to be the Holy Grail of betting via the tote.


Las Vegas journalist Jay Richards was a huge proponent/scholar of them and has left some clues as to how they work but that's all. There is nothing on them anywhere I found on the web. (I'm sure any group studying them is working in Skull and Bones type secrecy.)I spent some time searching for info on the Devere Grid after I decided to write my own ATRpro-like program. Couldn't find much of anything out there on the subject....that can only mean one thing....it works!

[thespaah]

.....i personally know a guy who will find a race he really likes, and make 400 -500 win bets as soon as windows open on a horse he hates that looks ok on paper, only to cancel the bet with 5 minutes to post....its amazing how this horse will take disapportionate exacta money from those scurrying to cover

who knows if this gives him any edge....
Gotta ask... Since at all tracks i have been to , all bets are final once the bettor leaves the window..
So how does one go back and cancel a bet?