One way to adjust Beyer figs

[GameTheory]

An actual method:

-- add half of the horse's final beaten lengths to his Beyer figure for that race


That's it.

This suggestion comes from David Edelman in his book on Aussie horse-racing THE COMPLEAT HORSEPLAYER (although he's talking about American racing in this case obviously). I don't have the means to test this system. Anyone?

Someone may also want to try it with BRIS figures, which are on a similar scale and have point values with similar meaning (so many points per length).

[Fastracehorse]

OK,

I'll try that.

Fastracehorse.

[cj]

Originally posted by GameTheory
An actual method:

...Someone may also want to try it with BRIS figures, which are on a similar scale and have point values with similar meaning (so many points per length).

They aren't really on a similiar scale. Do a search of back posts or go to chef-de-race.com to find a comparison chart.

CJ

[ranchwest]

GT,

Interesting.

[GameTheory]

Well,

The theory is that the points represent lengths, and that the beaten lengths play too large a part in the rating. By adding half the lengths we are actually REDUCING the effect that they have (compared to others coming out of the same race) which will put greater emphasis on class. So there should be some number or ratio to do the equivalent with BRIS or similar figures that also have a rough points to lengths system.

Edelman came up with "half the lengths" as an average figure based on some regressions...

[BillW]

It seems to me that it may be particularly valid for horses out of the money (6th place and up) and eased thus getting credit for a lower speed fig than the horse was capable of. Might bring average speed figs closer to reality. Will have to test this.

Bill

[GR1@HTR]

That is an extension of Jim Lehanes hidden Beyer. Pizzola in handicapping magic uses early pace to adjust his figs...I had mentioned a few years ago that it would be better to adjust it w/ the final fig of the winner. It is a good adjustment but nothing spectacular.


And as Bill said, how many horses do you see being whipped or forced to run balls to the walls when they are badly beaten?

[GR1@HTR]

Want to adjust a Beyer? Read the odds must be crazy by Ragozin and learn how to use the sheets. Then apply it to your favorite speed figure of choice.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by GR1
Want to adjust a Beyer? Read the odds must be crazy by Ragozin and learn how to use the sheets. Then apply it to your favorite speed figure of choice.

Thanks, I'm glad there's something of worth in that book. I'm trying to wade through it, but his bizarre side jaunts make for slow progress for me.

[hurrikane]

interesting idea as long as it is kept in perspective.

I see many horses with a good speed fig they earned while not in competition. The only reason they have it is because the winner ran a good race. Now you want to add say 5pts to a horse that already has an unrealistic fig losing by 10 lengths to a horse that way outclassed him and helped him earn the fig.

I don't know, if you kept it real it may have some value. I could'nt see giving a horse a lifetime high fig after he loses by 10 lengths. I have a problem with that concept. like I think it will cost me a lot of money.

[ranchwest]

hurrikane,

You probably have a good point if the horse is running at the same level. If the competition lessens, then it would make sense that the horse would perform better in a competitive race than it did in a race against far superior horses and it might be helpful to determine how much better the horse will go.

[hurrikane]

I agree ranch. And I would boost a horses rating if he were dropping into competitive level. I still think you could end up giving a horse an undeserved high beyer based on a big loss in his last race.

I will qualify that by saying I don't use speed figs nearly as much as I use to. It is mostly a verifying piece of data for me than a qualifying piece of data so I bow to your experience.

[ranchwest]

Hey, I'm the same way. When I can find a way to avoid anything having to do with time, I do.

As you say, validating contenders should include an evaluation of the best measures of time available.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by hurrikane
interesting idea as long as it is kept in perspective.

I see many horses with a good speed fig they earned while not in competition. The only reason they have it is because the winner ran a good race. Now you want to add say 5pts to a horse that already has an unrealistic fig losing by 10 lengths to a horse that way outclassed him and helped him earn the fig.

I don't know, if you kept it real it may have some value. I could'nt see giving a horse a lifetime high fig after he loses by 10 lengths. I have a problem with that concept. like I think it will cost me a lot of money.


Well, you'd be presumably adjusting all the other figures too (except winners) so it is not like you're just giving one horse a big bonus relative to the others. The idea is to give them the Beyer they would have had if you cut their beaten lengths in half, and it certainly doesn't mean you throw out your other handicapping out the window.

The only real way to validate it is to do just that -- test it. If it picks more winners under some objective criteria, then you've got an improved Beyer, maybe a little, possibly a lot.

[andicap]

Here's one someone told me about .

I might have a detail or two wrong, but roughly

Give a horse 1 point for each call it was either within 2 lengths or 1st and 2nd.
AND
Give a horse 1 point for each length it gained in the stretch.
I believe (I might be wrong) the maximum addition was 7 points overall.

Rewards early speed/stretch gain...try it at your own risk...

[Fastracehorse]

...........my annoying high-priced horses based on adjusted speed figs have stimulated some outstanding thinking.

fffastt

[Tom]

Re-calculate the Beyer for the horse's position at the stretch call. If it was leading there, it gets the winner's Beyer. If it was 2 by 4 and the finished 5 by 8, add the four lengths back into his final Beyer. This actaully catches some nice horses at AQI every year.

[hurrikane]

GT,
maybe I'm not understanding. You are adjusting the Beyer in the form at the time you are handicapping. If that is the case then you are only adjusting the one horse for the race you are considering in the PPs. Am I reading this wrong?

Tom,
interesting idea, what's the theory behind it?


lllastt
why don't you try contributing something meaningful or go back to drf and stroke truform a little more.

[GameTheory]

No, you have it correct, I'm just saying that you'll be adjusting all the other Beyers in the form as well, so if you give one horse a "lifetime best" he doesn't deserve, it is quite likely that some other adjusted Beyer will be even higher than that. My point being that the adjustment is not that great relative to the horses you are going to compare him to once all adjustments have been made. If a horse loses by 30 lengths, it may seem extreme to give him +15 points for that, but most of the other horses are going to go up a few points as well, and the 30 lengths horse had a pretty low number to begin with. So I don't think it will cause all sorts of unwarrented losers to suddenly be ranked on top...

[Doug]

TOM wrote,

Try This
Re-calculate the Beyer for the horse's position at the stretch call. If it was leading there, it gets the winner's Beyer. If it was 2 by 4 and the finished 5 by 8, add the four lengths back into his final Beyer. This actaully catches some nice horses at AQI every year.


__________________

Although I don't use any times in my handicapping (hardly ever) I would agree with Tom and take it a step further.

If the horse was up close at the 2nd call and had some trouble that would prevent that horse from running a better race, then adjust the Beyer according to the lengths behind at that call. Same adjustment as Tom mentioned.

Also, if the horse in question showed improvement adjust.

Also if the horse has an extreme pace advantage according to the race shape of todays race, Adjust

I do not mess with times (fractional or final) So this is basically just theory. If it doen't make sense to anyone ok. If it does maybe do a little research.

Please don't beat me up.

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

I loathe fractional call times and especially: Final times.

fffastt

[Doug]

FFFASTT,

Agree. Just talking about running style when I mentioned extreme pace advantage.

Tell me, did I finally spell fffastt correctly?

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

Yes dddougg you did.

fffastt

[cato]

IN the spirit of Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In an epic show that premiered today in 1968 (or something like that), does the ffff in ffffast

stand for the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate?

Cheers, Cato

[Fastracehorse]

But good try Kalin, Cato.

fffastt

[Tom]

Originally posted by cato
IN the spirit of Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In an epic show that premiered today in 1968 (or something like that), does the ffff in ffffast

stand for the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate?

Cheers, Cato

You bet your sweet bippy!


sockitomesockitomesockitomesockitomesockitomesocki tome

Sock it to ME?????

Look that up in you Funk and Wagnels!
Say goodnight, cato
Goodnight cato

(Oh, I kill myself sometimes <G>)

[cato]

so, Tom, you saw the show once or twice?

Cato

[ranchwest]

Verrryy Interesting.

But Shtupid.

[Tom]

Originally posted by ranchwest
Verrryy Interesting.

But Shtupid.
da da
da- da da
da da
da- da da
da da
da- da da
da,

da!

[formula_2002]

HEY TOM.. HOW DID I DO.
THE NEW AVATARED ME....

[Tom]

I'm impressed. Love the motion.
In fact, he has more motion than the jock on my hore in the 7th today! He wore green, too.