Mountaineer Park - Screw Form.Condition

[sq764]

I was watching Mtnr tonight and its apparant that if you try and focus on horses with some current form or conditioning, you are absolutely screwed...

Its not easy when horses who last raced in August are just destroying the field at double digit odds.. And by the prices I am seeing, these are not horses the public is pounding at all..

Kudos to those who are profiting tonight at Mountaineer!

Scott

[TomC]

One thing to remember at tracks like Mountaineer, where the big dollars are not exactly flying. Its hard to pay exercise riders enough money to work a horse out when it 20 below. Most trainers dont work their horses out and run them as much in severe weather. Thats why you will see races at MNR where all the horses are coming of 40 to 100 day layoffs, and no workouts since the last race.
Yes, its hard to know what is going to happen under those conditions. I am sure thats why winter racing is not as predictable as the rest of the year.
Tom C

[GameTheory]

Every time I run a test on my database to try out some speed figures or something and am rating off "the last line", Mountaineer is the lowest percentage track in the country every time.

"Recent form" (i.e. good finish) is the *last* place you want to look for "current form" with those horses. As such, Mountaineer actually offers some of the best betting opportunities because it is so confounding to most people. It is worth the study to figure out its secrets...

[ranchwest]

Last night, I watched one race from MNR on TVG. I didn't have any download or DRF or anything. I picked 8,10/3,8,10 based on the fact that every other horse in the race looked awful. I didn't bet on it. They came 10-8-7-3. Maybe it was just a good guess, but I think that if you throw out the ones that look like they can't make it to the finish line you'll probably do OK.

P.S.: Please excuse and indulge this blatant redboarding for the sake of being germaine to the topic at hand.

[TomC]

Yes, MNR has given me some of my best payoffs. I have hit many $100 and up horses there. However, the main problem is that at a track like MNR, if you are betting a 40 or 50-1 shot, even a small bet takes it down in price. So its hard to make serious money there if you are playing prices. I have seen horses that I liked at 4 minutes to post with $30 total bet to win on it!
I usually place my bets in advance. A decent size bet at MNR will make a 20-1 m/l horse open as the 1-9 favorite!
Tom C

[Fastracehorse]

................adjusting speed figures at that track??

Sometimes horses appear formless but they actually ran much better than is apparently obvious.

fffastt

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse
................adjusting speed figures at that track??

Sometimes horses appear formless but they actually ran much better than is apparently obvious.




I would love to try that -- how do you do it?

[Fastracehorse]

I could't resist this:

From: PETE33100 Jan-20 8:29 pm
To: GARYINSEATTL (1319 of 1321)

4959.1319 in reply to 4959.1318

yeah..im not one to bet chalk...but i really liked the horse...so when you see me bet chalk go to the window..it is a rarity..happens once or twice every decade...

i actually got a congratuatory phone call from someone...here is what they said:

BBBBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZZZ....PETE WELCOME TO THE CLUB...BBBBBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZ...ISNT 2-1 GREAT...BBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZ..NOW YOU KNOW HOW I FEEL....BBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZ......YOU WILL BE GETTING YOUR CHALKWEEKLY NEWSLETTER FROM DMU........BBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ....MUST GO NOW...BBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZZZ..THERE IS A 1-9 SHOT I LOVE AT DELTA DOWNS..........BBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ




Options Reply Rate

fffastt

[GameTheory]

Is there something that makes sense in that post? If so, I can't find it.

[Handy Cap]

Mountanieer can be profitable by one of two ways in the monthsof Jan and Feb.

1.KEEP TRACK OF THE TRAINERS THAT ARE HOT!!!

Since the Mount is dark for a month and a half, there are only a handful of trainers that do well in these months. See which trainers won the first 3 or 4 races, and then blast them when they come back in later races with a horse that looks similiar. Some trainers simply do not have there horses ready. AKA Cox, Demcyk, Gross....etc...but keep an eye for these trainers in a another month or so, because these races now for their horses are workouts. You will get great prices out of the come March!!

2.THE 9-1 AND OVER DUTCH PLAY

I have no idea who came up with this theory, but play everything between 9-1 and 39-1....progressively. I am not a big fan of the Progressive bet, but so far, I am up huge dollars doing this at the Mount.

BTW....the pools at the Mount are bigger then you might think. The Mount is the leading played night track at the otb I frequent, as well as plenty of others.

[GameTheory]

My toteboard data (from about a year ago) shows that about 75% of the pools come in at 1 MTP or less...

[azmike]

Don't broadcast it but Mnr can be a very profitable track. I don't play it like I do others. Lay-offs mean very little at this track. Jockey/Trainers stats are very important. Because of the nice pay-offs it is worth looking at. I only played the 9th and 10th tonight. I had the winner in the 9th and didn't collect because I played the exacta and missed the 2nd horse. I hit the exacta in the 10th 3 x. If you look at the winner's trainer stats you will see a positve roi in almost every category. My top horse on pace was the 9. I liked 4 horses 9-2-3 and 10 or 1. I dropped the 1 because of very poor j/t stats and keyed the 9 on top and bottom with the other 3. 9 looked like the speed and the others figured to close. I don't post my picks because believe me I miss a lot of them but I wanted to share a little of what I did with this track hoping it might be of benefit to you. But if anyone outside of this board asks, tell them Mnr is horrible. ;)

[JustRalph]

the only way i ever made any money at mtr was to track the trainer patterns. Some of them are pretty consistent w/longshots but it takes tons of time to do this. That is why i quit, now that i have more time maybe i will try it again.

[dav4463]

The lady and the gentleman who handicap the races on the simulcast are actually very good. Using their insight and adding some longshots has allowed me to cash some nice exotic payoffs at Mountaineer.

[formula_2002]

1st Time I listened to mnr people analyze the races.

..I noticed some major differences between them and the NY people..

They talked much slower, sounded kinder, and less pressured.


I posted 7 picks for Tues night card. Appears 6 ran as overlays and 1 won returning $12.00.

Joe M

[sq764]

Did anyone notice Englehart sneak in there and win with a $28 horse last night? Another tough to back horse..

[hurrikane]

no question there is an art to this track.
I love it. It is one of my favorite tracks to bet.
know the connection, know who likes to ship in and remember...Fr1 is money.

[JustMissed]

It is Nancy & Mark that do the capping for MNR. Nancy is a trainer & I believe Mark's brother is currently training and Mark may be a former trainer. Both are very good but I have found Nancy to be a little bit better with her picks.

If you listen to them long enough it is almost like going to "handicapper school". They really know how to take a race apart.

Tampa cut back on their MNR simulcast so I quick playing the track but always enjoyed it and made a little bit of money.

If I could afford it I would love to spend my summers & falls in West Virginia. That would be a great life, play the ponies up North and then down South.

See ya,

JustMissed

[ceejay]

I made some $$ there on Sunday just playing speed closest to the rail in sprints.

[hurrikane]

sure ceejay. just throw em a bone. don't make em do any tricks or anything. :D

[Zaf]

With all the purse money up for grabs, how come they can't attract better horses than 4K claimers. IT seems that they offer more purse money than LRL, PEN , but they have 7 races a night for 4K claimers . What up ???

ZZZAFONIC

[sq764]

I would guess its hard as hell to get your horse entered in there.. Almost every single race is packed with 10 horses..

[tcat]

Handy Cap...explain what you mean by betting all 9 to 39 odds horses progressively? I think I know but tell me anyway.

BTW perhaps using this playing MCL races back to back?