......H P C......DAY 44......12/28......FG R6......

[Rookie@58]

NO ONE PICKED THE #6 IN TODAYS RACE.

BETTER LUCK 2MORROW.....

SUFAN.................42........7......4......5... ...$309.30......$59.00
ROOKIE...............43......16......4......4.... ..$286.00......$39.00
ZAF.....................35.......5......7... ...7......$279.40
OMALLEY.............38......10.....7.......7...... $263.20......$39.00
ONEFAST99..........43......12......5......6......$ 247.50......$14.80
MAKINITHAPPEN...38........9......3......5......$23 3.10
BURLS..................36.......6.......7.....4... ....$222.20
RYESTEVE............42........9......8......4..... .$210.60......$14.80
DR WIN................34........8......4......3...... $210.60
RCKNHRSE............41........7......6......4..... $205.80
HAJCKHILLSTROM.38........8......6......5......$204 .50.....$14.80
HUGGINTHERAIL...36........9......5......6.......$1 78.90
JUDD...................37........4......6......7.. .. ...$150.20
ICEBAK................22........4......2......3... ...$149.80
098POI................39.......4.....10......2.... ...$133.90
ALYDAR...............24.......7......4.......1.... ...$132.30
SALLY.................40.......3......5.......9... ....$132.30......$39.00
DYLBERT..............38.......2......4......7..... ...$115.60
CANLEAKID..........33.......3......6.......3...... ...$114.00
ALYDAR111.........27.......3.......5......3....... ..$67.00
BOMBSAWAYBOB.28.......1......3.......2.........$44 .90......$14.80
PARSHOOTER........4.......0.......0.......1....... ..$12.80
TONTO1944..........1.......0.......0.......0...... ....$0.00

[rcknhrse]

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf

#7 alt#4
ex 7-4 (alt #3)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Primary: 5 SILVER CINDY
Alternate: 9 ELEGANT STAR

Exacta: 5-9 (alt. 6 MARKED FOR AMNESTY)

[onefast99]

elegant star-I noticed that horses that run at Houston and Louisiana downs as well as delta have inflated beyer numbers because they run against no one. At least this horse adds some equipment and may be primed to run fresh off the bench.Silver cindy(alt) I have no reason to pick this horse except the name.

[098poi]

Mr. Rook

Please adjust my total, my primary scratched and my alt placed. New total should be
098poi 39 4 11 2 144.30

Thanks

[dylbert]

#8 Wildly Wicked // #4 Many Moons

EXACTA: 8-4 (alt. #7 Zarbina)

[HuggingTheRail]

win 8 alt 7

ex 8-7 (alt 2)

[Burls]

FG 12-28-Fri R6

4 Many Moons
alt: 8 Wildly Wicked

EX 4/8

[098poi]

I'm with Burls

FG 12-28-Fri R6

4 Many Moons
alt: 8 Wildly Wicked

[Rookie@58]

#4, Many Moons // #5, Silver Cindy (Alt #8)

EX: 4/5 (Alt 7)

[omalley]

FG R6 # 9 alt 6

EX 9,6 alt 4

[onefast99]

Mr. Rook

Please adjust my total, my primary scratched and my alt placed. New total should be
098poi 39 4 11 2 144.30

Thanks
Add me to that mix eighteightyeight placed, I thought she had it won.

[alydar111]

#6- Marked for Amnesty
#5- Silver Cindy
ex 6/5:eek:

[parshooter]

#4 Many Moons
over #7 Zarbina:)

[canleakid]

fg r.6 5 to win //////7 alt--------------5-7 ex. ////4 alt. :sleeping:

[Dr Win]

4 Many Moons
7 Zarbina

ex: 4 - 7, 8

[sally]

#6 Marked for Amnesty

#8 Wildly Wicked

[sally]

hunch plays this time...

#1 Run for Z

alt. #3 Sweet Bella Dee


exacta 1-4 :)

[omalley]

FG R6 #9 Alt 4
EX 9,4 Alt 5

The 6 scratched

[sufan]

win 9
ex 9-3
alt 5

[ryesteve]

#4 Many Moons / #9 Elegant Star

alt: #3 Sweet Bella Dee

[judd]

sweet bella dee / elegant star

[MakinItHappen]

#7 Zarbina

Alt: #3 Sweet Bella Dee

Exacta: #7 Zarbina / #4 Many Moons (Alt: #3 Sweet Bella Dee)

I decided to give the 7 Zarbina a shot here in her second race back off a short lay-off. She has an adequate jockey and a return to the form she displayed in her last start prior to the lay-off would like be good enough for top honors. A honest early pace will likely help her chances. The 2nd off the lay-off angle has a slightly positive ROI for this trainer. She is tied for best dirt speed and best speed at the distance with the 4. Let's Go Old Lady!!


Discomforting Observations:

Why is a 38% jock (Bridgmahon) on the 1 Run For Z who is 12-1 ML? Bridgmahon stumped us at big odds yesterday and two days in a row of that would be almost too much to handle. Thank goodness at least Sally has this one covered today. The rail is winning at a 17% clip.

Several folks here are liking the 9 Elegant Star. Outside posts are not that bad here winning at a 14% clip. She is putting the Blinks On today which is a Big Negative ROI angle (-1.45) for this trainer, so I looked elsewhere.

The 3 Sweet Bella Dee will likely go to the lead and set pretty honest fractions. I am betting that she will not be able to hold on at that pace. Only 11% wire at this distance but she does draw a top jockey, Theriot (24%).

The 4 Many Moons seems to be the best of the bunch and will likely be sent off as the favorite however her propensity to settle for runner-up combined with the likely favoritism has led me to look elsewhere.

The 5 Silver Cindy who I am surprised to see opening as the 2-1 favorite seems to prefer to fight for 2nd or 3rd, so again I looked elsewhere. Perhaps I have missed something...

Best of Luck Today Everyone!

MakinItHappen

Post time in 13 minutes! Don't get shut-out!

[MakinItHappen]

2-1-4-7 Unofficial

[sally]

Damn I almost had that!! :mad:

hey I get place and show tho :)

[sally]

Now somebody tell me how the #2 horse did that.....:confused:

[MakinItHappen]

#2 She Burn Sum...$19.00 $10.00 $5.60
#1 Run For Z...................$13.00 $6.00
#4 Many Moons.........................$2.60
#7 Zarbina

$2 Exacta 2-1 $158.40


Comments: I just love it when the 1st horse I draw a line through wins! :bang:
I will say that I think Bridgmahon made a mistake letting the eventual winner slide through on the rail vs. making him go 3 wide around the turn.

Nice job Sally on getting a very nice place horse home!:ThmbUp:

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Now somebody tell me how the #2 horse did that.....:confused:Always go back and check the summary analysis. The only standout stat that SHE BURNS SOME shows is her last race rating (R1). It is the highest rated race in the field, and exceeds all the entrants last two races by two points.

Watch this, and if you see it again, take note. Eventually, you will develope profiles for tracks/distances.

[sally]

Ah... I see... thank you Hajck!!

[MakinItHappen]

Always go back and check the summary analysis. The only standout stat that SHE BURNS SOME shows is her last race rating (R1). It is the highest rated race in the field, and exceeds all the entrants last two races by two points.

Watch this, and if you see it again, take note. Eventually, you will develope profiles for tracks/distances.

I noticed that as I was capping the race, but I dismissed it rather quickly since this is a rating of the quality of the entire field in the race and She Burns Me, uhh.. I mean She Burns Most... uhh... I mean She Burns Sum just did not perform that well in the race (or at least that was my takeaway). This was my error as she did earn a Class Rating (which is an individual rating) of 112 in that race which tied her for top honors last race in this field. If you concentrate on the last two races she actually received a Class Rating of 112 and a 113 which was best in the field for the last two races. I feel this was my bigget oversight. I looked at this during my capping process, but it just did not stick out to me as others had as good or better #'s just not in the last two races... oh well, MY BAD!

As an FYI for some not as intimately familiar with the Bris PP's the "R1" which is a Race Rating for the most recent race also appears in the body of the PP's for each race just prior to the RaceType. After the race type is the CR or Class Rating that the horse earned for that race. The Class Rating does not appear in the summary.

OK, my takeaway is that I need to give horses more credit for knocking heads with tougher and give more weighting to recent Class figures.

Oh well, moving rapidly along... what do we have for tomorrow...lol!

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[onefast99]

The layoff prior to the last race of over 9 months is a stand out, she may of had a 112 rating but that alone isnt a reason to play this one. Most of the others raced against cheaper at delta, evangeline and la downs. This one raced at only the Fairgrounds vs tougher where she was in a 2x last time. That reason alone still wouldnt have sold me on this horse before or after the race.:eek: Maybe we can get Rookie to stay off the la breds...please...

[MakinItHappen]

The layoff prior to the last race of over 9 months is a stand out, she may of had a 112 rating but that alone isnt a reason to play this one. Most of the others raced against cheaper at delta, evangeline and la downs. This one raced at only the Fairgrounds vs tougher where she was in a 2x last time. That reason alone still wouldnt have sold me on this horse before or after the race.:eek: Maybe we can get Rookie to stay off the la breds...please...

You are correct, Onefast99, my mistake to concentrate on the Class the last two races with that big lay-off in there! So Sorry!

And yes, that alone may not make her my selection but I should not have dismissed her as quickly as I did.

Best of Luck To You Tomorrow!

MakinItHappen

[Hajck Hillstrom]

The layoff prior to the last race of over 9 months is a stand out, she may of had a 112 rating but that alone isnt a reason to play this one. Most of the others raced against cheaper at delta, evangeline and la downs. This one raced at only the Fairgrounds vs tougher where she was in a 2x last time. That reason alone still wouldnt have sold me on this horse before or after the race.:eek: Maybe we can get Rookie to stay off the la breds...please...Valid point. I always go back though, and look what the Winner's summary line looks like. The superior race rating is one I have seen before on double digit payouts. I really like this angle with horses that are 12-1 on the ML and rank in the top 3 of the summary analysis.

Hey, I totally dismissed the filly off the layoff as well, but you will be amazed by what you can learn by observing the summary lines after the race is run, and that is what I was encouraging Sally to do.

[sally]

As an FYI for some not as intimately familiar with the Bris PP's the "R1" which is a Race Rating for the most recent race also appears in the body of the PP's for each race just prior to the RaceType. After the race type is the CR or Class Rating that the horse earned for that race. The Class Rating does not appear in the summary.


Thank you Makin It! I wondered what the heck those numbers meant--there's a lot of info in these Bris PP's...and I was having a hard time finding the explanation in the Bris library.... :)

[098poi]

Now somebody tell me how the #2 horse did that.....:confused:


Not terribly surprising. She is lightly raced and comes out of a N2x/N3l race. These races should be stepping stones to better things. When horses get stuck at these levels, state bred n1x or nw2l taking a shot with a lightly raced horse can be a good play thinking if anyone is going to improve it will be that one. (This game is easy after the fact)

[rcknhrse]

The layoff prior to the last race of over 9 months is a stand out, she may of had a 112 rating but that alone isnt a reason to play this one. Most of the others raced against cheaper at delta, evangeline and la downs. This one raced at only the Fairgrounds vs tougher where she was in a 2x last time. That reason alone still wouldnt have sold me on this horse before or after the race.:eek: Maybe we can get Rookie to stay off the la breds...please...
Rookiehas no choice in the race of the day ,since bris makes the calll on that and since fair grounds is a twin spires track seems that fair grounds is the choice for race of the day more often than not.
By the way all of santa anita except races 3 and 4 for tomorrow can be found in the free pp's listed on horse race net

[onefast99]

Thanks for the info on the bris stuff guys. Has anyone looked at how the 12-1 shots who are ranked in the top three have faired in the last 30 races or so? That may be something to look at as I am always stuck on the 3-1 or less shots thinking someone is betting on them why shouldnt I!