Good NY Takeout Article

[Figman]

This article in PDF format documents what has been happening to the New York Racing Association (NYRA) handle the past two years. This is an article just released in the Albany Law School series of informative racing essays. This is the same group that holds the legal seminars on racing each August in Saratoga at the Gideon Putnam hotel....a very worthwhile Saratoga event to attend each year.
http://www2.als.edu/glc/wagering/mixedsignals.pdf

[takeout]

My hunch would be reason #4 because of the article that I read in '95 about NY running off a couple of its biggest bettors by raising the takeout on exactas from 17 to 20%.

[Suff]

Few things about the article

Page 2
The one place I were sure of a large increase in handle was on-track. That’s where
the largest bettors are. That’s where the most dedicated price-sensitive bettors are. Those
are the people who will be most likely to know of and to take advantage of a takeout
decrease. They would know that their betting dollars traveled further at NYRA and would
continue to churn their added winnings into further bets on NYRA. If there’s any place
where we could expect to see a certain double digit increase in handle, it was on-track.

I think his assumption is wrong. I think the "AT HOME" bettor fits the profile better than the on-track bettor. Gambling WWW sites, Simulcast programs that offer rebates and At-home players are MUCH more likely to be BIGGER BETTORS and shrewder bettors. So, in fact, the assumptions he makes further on in this essay are founded on "UNSOUND" theories to begin with.

Total NYRA on-track handle on its own races fell from
$370.2 million in 2000 to $365.6 million in 2002. Whe n comparing each NYRA meeting
in 2002 to its predecessor in 2000, handle was only up at the Belmont spring meeting and
the Aqueduct fall meeting. It was down at the Aqueduct winter-spring, Saratoga, and
Belmont fall meetings. There may have been two fewer racing days in 2002 than in 2000,
but 2002 did not have 103,000 fans present at Belmont to see if War Emblem could win
the Triple Crown. Instead, it had Commendable slowly going wire-to-wire.

Did he just assume the place was sold out? Because that's Belmonts Capacity. This was 5 weeks after Sept 11th.. and it was COLD... VERY COLD that day... and I was there...and the place was'nt half full... he somehow makes the claim, that 103,000 people were there... Well obvioulsy he was'nt there Cuz he woulda seen it was not full.

In 2000, NYRA on-track handle plus New York State OTB handle constituted
40% of the handle on NYRA races. The dollar amount of this handle has not increased
since 2000. That means that the handle from out-of-state simulcast sites has increased not
by just 9% but closer to a figure of 16.5%. The out-of-state increase in NYRA handle is
far more than I would have imagined. If NYRA gets a 4% fee on its handle based from
simulcast sites (which is then split 50-50 with its horsemen) on the extra $223 million in
simulcast handle, it makes $4.46 million which more than makes up for its on-track
losses – assuming that NYRA was not forced to lower the price of its signal to its guest
tracks.

He assumes because On-track handle and OTB were basically flat.. that the Total 9% increase in handle comes from out of state? He does'nt even mention the potential that THOUSANDS of NY based players now play from home. Bad assumption if you ask me. And I could make the case.. That if thousands of Ny based players now play from home.. yet ON TRACK HANDLE has stayed the same... it would could be considered AN increase in NY BASED handle...



2. Maybe, it’s due to the increase in account wagering. The number of guest
outlets taking NYRA racing may not have increased, but the expansion of inhome
broadcasting and computerized streaming video of racing may be
spurring increases in NYRA handle. It could be that the increases in wagering
at Youbet and the Television Games Network (especially the introduction of
account wagering in California10) have more to do with the increase at NYRA
than any other single factor. The daily presence of NYRA racing on cable TV
systems in California – racing against minimal major track competition -
might be the key to some of NYRA’s handle numbers. You need to have
greater access to NYRA’s numbers to see where the money is coming from
and whether same-track sales on the NYRA product have increased.

If account wagering raised the handle into NYRA from California,, why can't he make the same assumption that a significant increase also came from "within state"?


I'm a big NY player. They have the lowest Takeouts. And the best racing product in North America in my opinion. Handles are down and Attendance is down at GulfStream and ALL of Claifornia. I believe it is because NY is the superior product.
This guy somehow tries to turn the lower takeout and the Increased handle into negatives. I could'nt disagree more.