Quirin-style pace and speed figures

[wegoosewe]

I was wondering if any one had a chart with these numbers for Aqueduct i recently i have started looking into this process but i dont know where to begin. any other imformation would be great...

[NormanTD]

If your question is about Quirin speed points.

Quirin speed points are always regarding the first call point of a race

We use the last 3 races unless one of those was run at a a route, in which case we adhere to the rules below concerning a route in today’s sprint race.
Each horse in a race will be credited with a certain number of "speed points" for each of 3 recent races.

We start with the most recent race and work backward, never going back farther than 5 races in the horse’s record, to find 3 "ratable" races.

The horse’s speed point total for these 3 races will represent a consensus of its recent ability to flash early speed in today's sprint.

Each horse in the race starts with 1 speed point credited to its account.

Sprints – up to 7 1/2 furlongs: speed points:


1 point for any sprint in which the horse was 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at the first call, and/or (with an exception for 7F and 7 1/2F races)

1 point for any sprint in which the horse led or was within 2 lengths of the lead at the first call

0 points for any other sprint performance

0 points for any route, unless the horse was within 1 length of the lead at the first call, in which case the race is passed over and not counted in the rated races, meaning we must go back to the prior qualifying race; the horse receives a bye for that race
(At 7 and 7 1/2 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points – see 2nd bullet - only if he led at the first call)

So a horse may receive from 0 to 2 speed points for each of 3 races.

For a sprint, only past sprints can contribute to the total – all route efforts receive either 0 points or a bye.

For past races at 7 or 7 1/2 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points only if it led at the first call.

If the horse had been 2nd or 3rd, or within 2 lengths (or both) at the first call, it receives only 1 point.

Award 1 bonus point to horses that led or raced within a neck of the lead at the first call of all 3 rated races, for a maximum total of 8.

Any horse that receives only 1 speed point that was in the rear half of its field at the first call in each of its rated sprints must be penalized 1 point, giving it a new total of 0 points.

Likewise for the horse with 1 speed point whose last 5 races were all routes, with none of the last 3 resulting in a bye.

If the horse has been in the rear half of the field in the rated races, deduct the initial point for a 0 rating.



Here is how to interpret these numbers.

8 points: Demonstrated desire/ability to be on the lead or 2nd or 3rd but within a neck of the lead at the first call.

7 points: Demonstrated desire/ability to be on the lead or 2nd or 3rd but within 2 lengths at the first call.

4, 5 & 6 points: Demonstrated desire/ability to stay in touch with the leaders at the first call. On occasion, will be among the first three horses at the first call, particularly in the absence of higher QSP rated horses in the race.

1, 2 & 3 points: Will generally be in the last half of the field at the first call.

0 points: Will be in the back of the field at the first call or has no qualifying races in its past performance lines.

Plus, the BRIS and TSN data files provide a similar number although I don't think it is based on the exact formula as above.

Pace figures and final speed figures are usually calculated for each running line in the past performances and depend on what methodology you wish to use. I don't think there would be a chart per se (say?)

[cj]

What that gives is Quirin Speed Points, not pace and speed figures.

[sevenall]

I was wondering if any one had a chart with these numbers for Aqueduct i recently i have started looking into this process but i dont know where to begin. any other imformation would be great...

The attached website link has been providing Quirin style pace/speed figures for several years (for free) for the California tracks.

I'm assuming that they were planning on charging for these figures...but they never have.

https://secure.speedfigures.com/index.html

[wegoosewe]

thanks i called them no answer. i guess i will try later. is there any good books for this. i watched the drf expo and they talked about this. so that is why i am asking. and i dont understand the moss figures so i want to make my own.

[wegoosewe]

i have been using speedfigures.com. they are pretty good.. question tho i have heard of many people using Tom Brohamer pace figs and i searched i cant find them any info about them.

[jeebus1083]

Go to Amazon.com and order the book "Modern Pace Handicapping". That gives you an extensive treatment of using feet-per-second velocity (FPS) figures in your handicapping.

I like the idea of doing FPS pace figs, but disagree with how they are computed. Studies have found that 1 length is worth roughly 1/6th of a second (about .17) instead of the old-wives tale of 1 length = 1/5th (.20). Another flaw is in how feet traveled is computed. When you generate numbers of this nature, it's best to treat them as an approximation rather than 100% accurate. The other flaw is that beaten lengths values are not necessarily the same track-by-track and race-by-race.

If tracks ever get their hands on the Trakus technology used at some venues and provide this data to fans at a small cost, you will get extremely accurate times (the ones in the DRF Formulator are adjusted based on beaten lengths), accurate measurement of feet traveled (ground gain/loss) and those numbers will be extremely valid.


i have been using speedfigures.com. they are pretty good.. question tho i have heard of many people using Tom Brohamer pace figs and i searched i cant find them any info about them.

[Tom]

MPH also covers how to make Quirin style pace and speed figs.

[wegoosewe]

i know how to make them but i dont have the time to make the par charts for the tracks i wanted to play.

[delayjf]

Dave Schwartz, who posts on this board, makes par times for almost all US tracks. He publishes and sells his par times yearly. You can look him up on the member list (under D for Dave ) and contact him.

[wegoosewe]

question i have been using speedfigures.com. and there pars. my question is that say horse a runs a 6 furlong race early pace of 100 and a final time of 94. now he is stretching out in distance to a mile could you still expect that same performance if he runs back to the last race. reason i ask this is because for those non- winners of 1 allowance races most the time there going longer the second time would this be a way to judge them or no.

[Tom]

I wouldn't look for a 100 - 94 horse to stretch out. He is dropping of a lot late at the sprint.

Now, if he is in against routers who go 95, 96 early, he might have a shot. If he throttles back to 96, he might up is final number to 98. But if hbe meets 99-100 early routers, I would throw him out.

He might need a race at the route befreo he fires big. I look for a horse to run within about 2 -3 points of his sprint races firts time out, so at a sprint, he runs a 194, if he runs a 191-192 first route, I look for more improvment second time going long - may even a couple point improvement, say 194-196.

Route breeding is something I look at here, and trainer abiltiy to stretch them out.

[wegoosewe]

ok thanks tom. that makes sense but once and a while i see it and he goes off as a favorite and i know i shouldnt bet him because i can see the numbers he has ran. but i do because maybe i missed something but they dont even hit the board so that is why i asked. i thought maybe he can transfer those numbers over to the route.

[njcurveball]

question i have been using speedfigures.com. and there pars. my question is that say horse a runs a 6 furlong race early pace of 100 and a final time of 94. now he is stretching out in distance to a mile could you still expect that same performance if he runs back to the last race.


I think if you depend on PROVEN performance in a sprint, you are fishing in a very shallow end of profits. You mention NW1 races, so we are talking horses who have yet to prove their abilities.

In that case breeding and to a lesser extent the trainer are a better gauge for profit than an impressive sprint line.

Also remember that these horses have yet to prove their class, so backing an impressive maiden winner at short odds when he stretches out is probably not a winning move.

[Tom]

Iwouldn't recommned it with maiden winners doing two noew thing at once.
I was refering more to a horses who showed the sprint figs in an ALW race against winners.

And definately, the odds come to play. Why take the risk on a favorite - Harvy Pack's rule.

[wegoosewe]

just because maybe i missed something.

[ranchwest]

just because maybe i missed something.

What if "they" missed something?

[delayjf]

But if hbe meets 99-100 early routers, I would throw him out.
Tom,
I might be interested at taking a shot at the above horse because I'm not a big fan or distance equalization, in this case I would apply the Bob Barker rule ( if the price is right)

[ranchwest]

Tom,
I might be interested at taking a shot at the above horse because I'm not a big fan or distance equalization, in this case I would apply the Bob Barker rule ( if the price is right)

That won't work at Beulah -- ha!, you better be a very long-time fan of Bob Barker if you expect to get this! lol

[wegoosewe]

looking at golden gate fields today 1/19. first race is a par of 100. how many points would you go down to find the contenders. for example 1 horse consistantly runs 94-96. would you include her or no. because i was thinking about using a 4 points under the par level...

[trigger]

.

I like the idea of doing FPS pace figs, but disagree with how they are computed. Studies have found that 1 length is worth roughly 1/6th of a second (about .17) instead of the old-wives tale of 1 length = 1/5th (.20). Another flaw is in how feet traveled is computed. When you generate numbers of this nature, it's best to treat them as an approximation rather than 100% accurate. The other flaw is that beaten lengths values are not necessarily the same track-by-track and race-by-race.

If tracks ever get their hands on the Trakus technology used at some venues and provide this data to fans at a small cost, you will get extremely accurate times (the ones in the DRF Formulator are adjusted based on beaten lengths), accurate measurement of feet traveled (ground gain/loss) and those numbers will be extremely valid.

Finish beaten lengths depend entirely on the standard time each beaten length is assigned by the photo finish company working at a given track. In other words, the photo finish company calculates the time difference between the crossing of the finish line of the winner and the second place finisher. Then using its own assigned time for a length, computes the beaten lengths. If you can believe it, this time assigned to a length is considered proprietory by the photo finish companies.