pQ p$UB sample and analysis: BetBacks at Laurel + new pace fig: p$UB or "pace MONEY"

[Robert Fischer]

Laurel Thursday 12/20/2007
pQ p$UB sample and analysis

http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/2168/pqlaurel12202007we5.jpg


Quick Explanation of the figs:

pace Quality: "pQ" = Average 6f time of top 3 betting choices.
pQ was designed to measure the pace of the quality horses.

pace Money: "p$UB" = Total Win Pool Money wagered on all horses who's pace is faster than a given fractional split time. For example Thursday's routes at Laurel uses a p$UB 1:16.00. That is the Total Win Pool Money of horses faster than a 1:16.00 pace @ 6 furlongs.



Analysis

RACE1 8f MDNCLM $12
- p$UB of only 16K. Some of the blame for the light Pace Money can be placed on the early 12:10pm post, but the favorite and his 11k of win pool money failed to run a sub 1:16.00 6 furlongs and never contended. This maiden claimer sported a bad combination of a mediocre 1:15.59 pQ and the slowest final 2 fractions of the day at the distance (13.47 and 13.84 respectively).
Both the winner #4 Smart Bluff, and the place horse #3 Doolin(who finished very poorly) are toss candidates in their next race back. Hoping to see Doolin back soon as a vulnerable favorite.

RACE3 8f CLM $16 F&M
- pQ of 1:15.33 and the p$UB of 48K were among the day's best at the distance. #3 Seaclipseofthemoon cut out honest fractions getting an easy lead before giving way, and holding on for third. Looks to be in shape. Ideal situation is a cutback to 7furlongs especially with class relief. #2x Westside Lady made an honest effort for 2nd while racing within striking distance of the pace. Would have to include back at this distance and class.
Winner #1 Sing to the Sky may have benefited from moving last of all from off of an honest pace. Would also have to include back especially underneath, and would be interesting at 9furlongs on the dirt.

RACE8 8F ALW N2X $30 F&M
-Although this was the "feature" and only allowance route on the card, this race had a low quality pace. While the pace setter set fractions of 1:15.41, however the pQ was a pedestrian 1:16.13. That is a difference of .72 seconds! This is an example of pQ doing it's job. In addition, the p$UB was only 11K, also indicating a rather cheap pace. The #2 Katrinarita benefited from this set up. She sat fairly close to the low quality pace and saved ground. Her performance was worse than it looks on form and she figures to be an underlay bet against in the win pool in a competitive allowance race.



Still a work in progress
Looking to improve on last year's Kentucky Derby Contenders pQ figs and have something ready for 2008
(2007 derby contenders)
http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/2027/kentuckyderbyfiguresiw9.th.png (http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/2027/kentuckyderbyfiguresiw9.png)

[Robert Fischer]

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/63/pqlaurel12212007fh4.jpg

Quick Explanation of the figs:

pace Quality: "pQ" = Average 6f time of top 3 betting choices.
pQ was designed to measure the pace of the quality horses.

pace Money: "p$UB" = Total Win Pool Money wagered on all horses who's pace is faster than a given fractional split time. For example Friday's routes at Laurel uses a p$UB 1:15.00. That is the Total Win Pool Money of horses faster than a 1:15.00 pace @ 6 furlongs.



Analysis

RACE4 7f CLM $14 F&M pQ 1:16.76 p$UB $0K
- This was a poor quality pace, especially for 7 furlongs. Flat performance from FORMALLY JAY , off at second choice 2-1 with Napravnik aboard. Is a next out toss from the win pool if runs back soon without substantial class relief.

RACE5 8F CLM $16 pQ 1:14.40 p$UB $71K
- HAD A QUALITY PACE for it's class , #6 Western Missile had a better race than what you will see on form , attended the pace, made a strong run to take the lead, did much of the running and then was bumped and checked while tiring on the lead in the stretch. Western Missile could offer value in several pools. Winner Big Emi had a great trip and 8lb weight break over rivals, but showed class finishing willingly off the pace. - Big Emi Claimed into the Schoenthal barn and will require scrutiny.

RACE9 8F CLM $10 NW2 pQ 1:16.69 p$UB $0K
-#9 Cool Pleasures raced near to the low quality pace throughout and was weak in the stretch under a hard ride. If back soon at this class Cool Pleasures looks to be a toss from the exacta wager.

[Robert Fischer]

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/2475/pqlaurel12222007lr7.jpg



Analysis

RACE1 7f MDNCLM $8 F&M pQ 1:17.78 p$UB $0K
- Poor quality race, and that happens at near bottom level claimers. With the slow PQ time of 1:17.78 we look to someone who attended the pace... #1 Firm Salute came in at 20-1 and just isn't a very good horse. She managed to lead most of this race before weakening in the stretch to finish 3rd. Hoping to see her back soon as a toss from the exacta.

RACE2 7F CLM $18 F&M pQ 1:14.42 p$UB $42K
- QUALITY PACE for it's class. #1 Marco Groom did all the work and considering how much Lady Lankford tired it was a good effort. This horse is in shape for Scott Lake. Could be a horse to key on in a trifecta or show wager in a return. Maybe even an exacta key.

RACE3 7F MDNCLM $8 F&M pQ 1:16.90 p$UB $0K
-Again we find a low quality pace and look for a horse on or near the pace that weakened. Too easy right? #8 Abby raced on the lead and weakened before entering the turn. At 7 furlongs and up in a halfway decent field she is a toss from the exacta wager. Consider tossing from trifecta.

[Dave Schwartz]

Robert,

This stuff is very innovative. The idea borders on genius.


Thanks for sharing. Since I believe in payback, give me a call some time and I will share some stuff with you of similar innovational quality.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[stuball]

Thanks for sharing --- I love to do stuff like this....will take this idea
and try to do a little digging...to see if I can mine any jewels...

I admire anyone that can come up with ideas like this...
Hats off to you for something that appears very useful.

Stuball :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

It must be brilliant. I've read it 4 times and still haven't quite "twigged" as to what this all means. Anyone else need more expansion on the concept?

[Tom]

Not a clue.:confused:

[Dave Schwartz]

Fox,

Sure, I will take a shot.

pace Money: "p$UB" = Total Win Pool Money wagered on all horses who's pace is faster than a given fractional split time. For example Friday's routes at Laurel uses a p$UB 1:15.00. That is the Total Win Pool Money of horses faster than a 1:15.00 pace @ 6 furlongs.


First, when I looked at the charts I only saw one thing that really interested me: the idea of "metric-ing" a race by how the public wagered.

For example, in our software we have a handful of high-level factors - we call them "composites" - that are made up of several related factors. A few are:

RTG (overall)
ES
F1
EP
SC
FT
Earnings Box Class
Level-based Class
Form
Last Race

A simple application of RF's idea is to simply add a variable which represents what percentage of the pool was wagered on (say) the top 2 in the race in each factor. An example question to be addressed would be:

"In races where the public is strongly betting the top ??? horses, how does that impact other horses in that factor? How does it impact horses in other factors?"


There could be an entire new branch of horse racing statistics to come from this idea. (Or, it might just be gas.)


Dave

[Robert Fischer]

Anyone else need more expansion on the concept?

I'll give it a try.

The main idea behind the concept is to look at pace in a new light.

LEAD HORSE the traditional way:
Traditionally pace is defined by the lead horse. The fastest horse for each chart "call". There is value to that method. There are some very high quality professional approaches that measure the pace of the race using that lead runner...
I do not knock the good pace figures out there, and they are some of the best handicapping and wagering tools you can get your hands on.

My Specialty:
I am as guilty as sin when it comes to wagering more, and handicapping more of the types of races that I like. For me that means dirt races and it means routes or "classic distance". The Kentucky Derby. The Breeders Cup Classic. And all of the 8,9,10 furlong stakes and prep races.

Living and dying on these races - I have noticed that the lead horse doesn't necessarily tell the whole story - If that is because of the jockeys rating off the pace with the classier animals or if it is simply the combination of different running styles (there is some debate).


WHY PACE QUALITY?

We have all seen the big stakes race where the Cheap 35-1 shot went out very fast in early fractions, and yet he didn't worry us , and none of the other jockeys/horses paid a whole lot of attention except when passing him later on. With the "lead horse" type of pace, that race appears to be run at a HOT pace - however, watching the race we saw the 2 or 3 good horses run along comfortably early, practically ignoring that "Cheap Speed".

The opposite being the race where the heavy favorite is a speed horse on or near the pace. If that favorite runs a big race, the competition has to work very hard. The "Stalkers" get no breather into the turn. Even the closers have a choice to make, the race is a higher stress level to all.


Pace Quality - takes the 3 horses that the betting public bet the most on, and finds their pace.

Pace Money - Asks how much money was bet on the pace.

[Donnie]

Robert--
novel idea, no doubt!
One question: wouldn't this hold truer tho in sprints versus routes? The old axiom is speed in the sprints, class in the routes.

[john del riccio]

Robert--
novel idea, no doubt!
One question: wouldn't this hold truer tho in sprints versus routes? The old axiom is speed in the sprints, class in the routes.

I find that I get more lucrative bets exploiting my pace figures in routes as oppsoed to sprints.

JOhn

[Robert Fischer]

Robert--
novel idea, no doubt!
One question: wouldn't this hold truer tho in sprints versus routes? The old axiom is speed in the sprints, class in the routes.

Pace is very important in the sprints. In general the pace of the lead horse is the best indicator of a sprint. There are some very well done professional pace figures on the market that do a great job with sprints.
Pace Quality figs are an interesting supplement to handicapping sprints. There are probably some jewels to be had.

In the routes, the lead horse is less important. If the quality horses and their jockeys aren't giving chase the pace can be valued much differently with Pace Quality.

[Dave Schwartz]

I find that I get more lucrative bets exploiting my pace figures in routes as oppsoed to sprints.

John,

So do I.

So does Jim Cramer.


Dave

[Robert Fischer]

No Huge pay days yet. :mad:

Seaclipseofthemoon ran back and won the other day. She got the cutback in distance to 7f, but not the class drop. Went off at way to low of odds to play. Wasn't really a positive expectation. Ended up breaking poorly and stalking/pressing instead of where she was "supposed" to be - on the lead, so it was an odd race.


Today Doolin , and Katrinarita run back.

Doolin was supposed to go off as vulnerable favorite and a bet-Against , but they put him up in class:bang:, and this race features a Dickie Dutrow shipper MAX'S BID, who will take all the money as favorite.:mad:
Nothing that I see worth betting here as it stands. The FTS with Luis Garcia #2 NUECES RIVER, is actually interesting, and could be a small play under the Dutrow horse in an exacta or tri if the price is right.
RACE 4 http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/vinery_98956.pdf


Katrinarita is entered in the 7th race, she draws Pino which could help her go off lower than morning line 4-1. She is a bet against in the win slot, but not totally hopeless, and she will not be getting the big money I had hoped. The #1 SISTER SASSY is the most likely winner, and the 2 CALL ME CHAOTIC also has a chance. It may be of some value to key these two in a trifecta with some others, and of course to check exacta probables. If by some miracle they both go off above 2-1 a dutch win bet is also in order. Mark Shuman has a longshot in the race #4 Dixie Giggle who could possibly have some life.
Nothing that I am in a big hurry to wager on.


Patiently,
:ThmbUp: