back to back winners

[HUSKER55]

Hello everybody,

I got burned the other night by a horse who went back to back winner in less than 2 weeks for the first time. Is that just a fact of life or is there a clue that I need to learn.

Your help and input is appreciated and thank you for your efforts. :)

[JustRalph]

Hello everybody,

I got burned the other night by a horse who went back to back winner in less than 2 weeks for the first time. Is that just a fact of life or is there a clue that I need to learn.

Your help and input is appreciated and thank you for your efforts. :)

I think you need to be a little bit more descriptive in your inquiry..........

If you mean, do maidens come back and win very often after their first win?

Often enough. I don't rule them out........ first up against winners is a tough condition............ I often do bet them if I think they have the right field. everything else has to be right.

[boomman]

Hello everybody,

I got burned the other night by a horse who went back to back winner in less than 2 weeks for the first time. Is that just a fact of life or is there a clue that I need to learn.

Your help and input is appreciated and thank you for your efforts. :)

I agree with Ralph that you need to be a little more specific about what class of race it was and did the horse just break his/her maiden. However, having said that, I can tell you that there is a stat on the Daily Racing Form formulator program that actually gives you a percentage to tell you how this particular barn does with horses that have won their last start. But the bottom line is this: How do they match up against today's field, and if they are facing winners for the first time, how impressive was their maiden score, what type of field of maidens did they face, and how do they fit today via a pace scenario?

Boomer

[Overlay]

Also, don't forget odds. I've seen last-race maiden winners overlooked in the betting their next time out (and not even necessarily in an allowance, but just in a straight claimer) for no discernible reason other than the fact that they were now facing previous "winners" (generally of just one race) for the first time. Leaving the maiden ranks is a jump, but, depending on how the winning chances of the rest of the field stack up, I would regard the higher odds on the solid last-out winner as a bonus in that case.

(It wouldn't even have to be confined to maiden winners last out. To me, any last-out winner could be potentially playable based on its current form, and how it stacks up against the rest of the field, if the odds are right.)

[njcurveball]

His post stated

by a horse who went back to back winner in less than 2 weeks for the first time

And by what I read into it, he is saying that usually horses that lose a lot of races do not come back to repeat wins. I do not think the post meant ALL last out winners.

In the case of a horse who is something like 1 for 30, or 2 for 40 and steps up to win. History certainly is not in favor of them repeating. However, there are many things that go on in the barn and perhaps some favorable event caused the win.

We all have heard the goat story, or a new groom or hotwalker who takes an interest in the horse and gives it special care.

Many things contribute to a win, even the attitude of the horse. Even an old horse can learn new tricks sometimes and their new attitude may be the reason for the repeat win as well.

[Robert Goren]

It happens quite a bit in open claimers and starter alws.

[HUSKER55]

I apologize for tha bad post. Sorry. :) The race was a 10K claimer. I keep old forms for about 3-4 weeks and I didn't find any back to back wins. I generally dismiss past winners thinking they can not win unless there is a layoff of 21 days or more because they need to recoup. I do the same for photo and nose to nose finishes, thinking they need to recoup.

Other than that I thought the horse was good to go for the race.

Thank you for your responses.

[phatbastard]

i will look hard at accomplished winners that win off an ascending beyer pattern, but the last out win was not a new Top...

[Norm]

Back in the old days (the 70's), any horse who won by 4 or more lenghts would be sent right back within a week and would be expected to win again (and usually did at low odds). I don't think that today's trainers subscribe to the "hot horse" theory anymore. At least I haven't seen it in recent years.



Anybody remember Tiki Minx at Aquduct about 30 years ago? I think it was trainer Frank "Pancho" Martin, sent the horse to the post 5 times in 12 days. The horse won all 5 races even while stepping up the claiming ladder a rung each time. Ole Frank knew what to do with a hot horse.

[bobphilo]

Back in the old days (the 70's), any horse who won by 4 or more lenghts would be sent right back within a week and would be expected to win again (and usually did at low odds). I don't think that today's trainers subscribe to the "hot horse" theory anymore. At least I haven't seen it in recent years.



Anybody remember Tiki Minx at Aquduct about 30 years ago? I think it was trainer Frank "Pancho" Martin, sent the horse to the post 5 times in 12 days. The horse won all 5 races even while stepping up the claiming ladder a rung each time. Ole Frank knew what to do with a hot horse.

Yep, old Pancho really knew how to run a horse to death. Just ask anyone who claimed a horse from him after he was done with it.

Bob

[Norm]

Yep, old Pancho really knew how to run a horse to death. Just ask anyone who claimed a horse from him after he was done with it.

Bob

True enough. Pancho would squeeze the lemon 'til it was dry. Claiming from him was a bad idea. Betting on his horses when they looked ready had its merits although he was not a good role-model as a horseman.

[whyhorseofcourse]

I dont dismiss past winners at all.
I noticed horses who run at Mountaineer or even Charlestown does this a lot.
But it takes a couple races to get into good form.
So they may have 1 win over 10 races, but finally get a feel for the track and often pull 4 or 5 wins in a row.
I had a huge hunch with smart tale and rex stokes at the mountin about a year ago.
Boy I love that horse.

[sammy the sage]

HGH...not tested for in horse's yet...that I'm aware of?