......H P C......DAY 37......12/19......HAW R7......

[ryesteve]

Looks like Rookie is MIA, so I'll fill in...

Almost everyone cashed today. Winners were dylbert, onefast99, ryesteve, Hajck Hillstrom, alydar111, judd, and Makinithappen. In addition, onefast99, ryesteve, and Hajck Hillstrom had the exacta.

SUFAN..................35......6......4......4.... ....$281.50
ROOKIE.................36....16......7......4..... ..$279.20......$39.00
OMALLEY..............31....10......6......5....... $249.00......$39.00
ONEFAST99...........36....12......5......3........ $236.50......$14.80
ZAF......................30......4......7......6.. ......$226.80
RYESTEVE.............35......9......8......3...... .$206.00......$14.80
RCKNHRSE............36......7......5......3....... $195.00
BURLS..................31......5......7......3.... ....$194.20
HAJCKHILLSTROM..31......8......4......5.......$190 .90......$14.80
MAKINITHAPPEN....32......7......3......4.......$15 6.50
ICEBAK.................22......4......2......3.... ..$149.80
DR WIN.................28......7......4......1....... $146.00
JUDD....................31......4......6......5... ....$142.40
HUGGINTHERAIL....29......7......3......5.......$12 0.10
ALYDAR................21......6......4......1..... ..$117.70
SALLY..................33.......2......4......9... ....$111.70......$39.00
DYLBERT...............31......2......3......7..... ....$106.40
098POI.................32......3......8......2.... ...$105.30
CANLEAKID...........29......3......5......3....... ..$82.70
ALYDAR111...........20......2......4......2....... ..$34.60
BOMBSAWAYBOB..24......1......2......2.........$32. 30......$11.80

[rcknhrse]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/promo_rep.cgi?brd

#2
alt #1
ex 2-1 (alt #9)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Shhhhhhsh..... Don't tell anyone.......

Primary: 2 GRECO'S SECRET
Alternate: 5 RAINBOW'S SECRET

Exacta 2-5 (alt. 9)

[ryesteve]

Shoot, I was gonna use that line...

#5 Rainbow's Secret / #2 Greco's Secret

alt: Kellyville

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Shoot, I was gonna use that line...Great minds think alike.....;)

[HuggingTheRail]

Win 2

alt 1

ex 2-1 (alt 4)

[Zaf]

#6 Hawkster's Rose

alt. #11 Twixt

ex. 6 - 11 , alt. #7

Z

[BombsAway Bob]

7th@Haw: #1,KELLYVILLE ;alt. #2,GREGO'S SECRET
$2 exacta 5-2 (alt.2nd-#1,Kellyville)

[MakinItHappen]

- 9 of the 12 horses entered have a back speed figure equal to or in excess of the average winning Par for this class level and distance. Seems unusually high.

- The top 5 "Speed Last Race" figures (and "Back Speed" figures) all come out of the same race that was run at this distance and level a little over 3 weeks ago. All 5 of these experienced DOUBLE DIGIT increases over there previous best speed figure. WHAT ARE WE TO MAKE OF THIS? The track was EXTREMELY FAST that day and we should discount these figs a bit? Something smells a little funny.

- These 12 horses are seperated by a mere 12.4 Prime Power Points from top to bottom, which indicates this is a very contentious race.

Running Style: The "P" running style (mid-pack closer) wins 85% more than its fair share at this distance. We have 5 in this field including 3 of the top contenders.

Post Position: For the meet, the inside posts are the place to be. For the past week, outside posts are the place to be. Hawthorne has been dark the last two days. How will it play today? :confused:

Interesting Longshot: The 9 Mean Charlene (ML 20-1) was beaten last time out by only two lengths by ML favorite the 2 Greco's Secret. Last race she closed best of all earning a very high 129 Late Pace figure. I don't think anybody deserves to be 20-1 in this race and while she won't get my vote in this contest, she will likely get a couple $'s of my support if she goes off at odds greater than her ML.

My Selection: I am going to look outside that suspiciously fast race from three weeks back for my pick. #6 Hawkster's Rose has the desired "P" running style and seems to be the best of the rest. She comes into this race with the highest current class rating and has been facing slightly tougher competion as evidenced by her 112 Avg. Race Rating which is tops in this field. Last time out she bested ML favorite Greco's Secret by a quarter length. She gets the services of 16% jock Tanner Riggs. I am not thrilled by the 45 day lay-off, but am hoping that nothing is amiss.

Top Pick: #6 Hawkster's Rose
Alt: #2 Greco's Secret

Exacta: 6 / 2 (#1 Kellyville)

Best of Luck Today Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[098poi]

Haw R7



5 Rainbow's Secret
1 Kellyville

[onefast99]

hawksters rose-form is strong right now been facing better.
grecos secret(alt) and exacta

[omalley]

Haw R7 #3 alt 2
EX (3,2) alt 1

[judd]

exploit the sun / rainbow secret

[alydar111]

2=Greco's secret:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
1 Kellyville :cool:
exacta 2/1

[Richie]

denouncers gal/greco's secret

[Rookie@58]

#6, Hawkster's Rose // #2, Grecos Secret

EXACTA: 6-2 (Alt #1)

[Dr Win]

1 Kellyville



9 Mean Charlene alt



ex: 1-9

[dylbert]

#9 Mean Charlene // #6 Hawkster's Rose

EXACTA: 6 - 9 (alt. #2 Grecos Secret)

[sally]

I agree this is a most contentious race-- If you discount those anomalous speed figures you can eliminate a few horses from this race...even though #11 Twixt has a preferred running style and possibly a preferred post position her numbers are too low to be in contention (IMHO). I also think there are some class issues with some others... I think # 3 Exploit the Sun's speed figs are improving and I like the turf to dirt angle. #5 Rainbow's Secret seems to be in form, she "rushed up" in that last race--but can Agilar harness her energy better (there's some interesting comments on the "running lines" thread today :) ) #2 Greco's Secret looks to be improving-I like the trainer and jockey stats--and jockeys are important in route races...#6 Hawkster's Rose is consistent with her speed figs, obviously prefers the dirt, I don't mind the layoff but I wish the trainer stats were better...

I've discovered I have a propensity to go for the higher odds horses--that has kept me out of the money a few times--if I go with who I think is ready to fire today I'd go with #2 Greco's Secret--she failed as the favorite last time by 1/2 length but she "altered course". And I like #6 Hawster's consistency...


# 2 Greco's Secret
alt. # 6 Hawster's Rose

exacta--- 2-6 :)

[sufan]

win 5
alt 2
ex 5-2
alt 1

[Burls]

HAW 12-19-Wed R7

1 Kellyville to WIN
alt: 6 Hawkster's Rose

1/6 EXB

[MakinItHappen]

#6 Hawkster's Rose is consistent with her speed figs, obviously prefers the dirt, I don't mind the layoff but I wish the trainer stats were better...


I know what you mean Sally, 13% is nothing spectacular BUT as wagerers, if we were to look for a "silver lining" checkout Elmer Miller's ROI for 2007. Every $2's wagered to win on one of his starters this year returns $1.46 profit! That is SPECTACULAR! There is only one other trainer with an entry in the race that has a positive ROI for the year, and that is Janice Ely, whose ROI is very similar and she is also at 13% wins for the meet. The two trainers who have win %'s that are more attractive to us at 22% and 18% have done far less for their backers with 2007 ROI's of -.07 and -.44, respectively.

I guess the moral of the story is that when we as wagerers are looking at trainer's we should perhaps focus more on what have they done for their "backers" (ie- ROI) rather than what have they done for their owners (win%).

All the above sounds very nice, but before we start the celebration, I would be remiss if I did not also point out that Elmer Miller's ROI figures for "31-45 days away" and in "Allowance" races are quite alarming at -1.21 and -1.57, respectively, so perhaps this isn't one of his best spots! :confused:

Best of Luck To You Sally and Everyone Today!

MakinItHappen

[onefast99]

Lets get the race going already.

[onefast99]

Wow a big no one got this one....slewtini...nice ride on the 2 jockey must of thought he was home free. Look for Hawkster to be closer up next time and get the win.

[MakinItHappen]

#12 Slewtini............$31.60 $10.60 $7.00
# 2 Greco's Secret..............$3.20 $2.80
# 6 Hawkster's Rose.....................$3.60

$2 Exacta .... $130.80

[098poi]

I love animals and respect what these horses do BUT that looked like a real bunch of Sad Sacks out there. I got tired just watching them!

[onefast99]

I love animals and respect what these horses do BUT that looked like a real bunch of Sad Sacks out there. I got tired just watching them!
Not one of the better races of the day, but we have to abide by the format of this contest and not every race will be a Grade 1 at Hollywood Park. The fact that no one picked the winner shows how far out in left field the 12 was to even consider that one at all.

[MakinItHappen]

No winners on todays contest:bang:....DUH!!! I read the results, then went back to the form to see what I missed on the #12 and to see WHAT CLUES there were to today's win....I AM STILL LOOKING :p

Well, I have to agree with you Rookie, looking at her PP's there is not a heckuva lot there other than the fact that her trainer has a positive ROI in allowance races and she has a serviceable jock and looks to be deserving of her 10-1 ML odds assignment. So my initial thought was that in order to have selected this filly, one had to decide that this was a very contentious race with some suspect likely favorites and you had to make a commitment to go a little deeper in the field and pick one of the second tier runners that didn't look real likely but with a little racing luck might be there at the finish.

After a little more thought, I think perhaps this outcome was a bit more logically decipherable if you tried to envision how the race would be run and whom that might favor. First, who will set the pace? From looking at the PP's it was pretty obvious that Rainbow's Secret was the quality speed and would likely set a pace that would likely be even to ambitious for herself. This was what happened in the race three weeks ago and it happened again here. She even ramped it up a notch this time and led them through 6 fur in 1:12.4 vs. 1:13.3 in the previous race. What happened the last race? A deep closer circled from the back of the field and won? What happened tonight? A deep closer circled from the back of the field and won! Looking for a horse to fill that role, the #12 was the most likely choice after the scratch of the 9. Had the 9 not scratched, she may have won this race blown the toteboard to Bermuda. The favorite of course, still had a shot to hang on but once she struck the front, she didn't have anything left in the tank. After completing the first 3 quarters in just a touch over :24 each she could barely complete the next two fur in under :27 which of course explains how a horse can come from 13 or 14 lengths of the pace.

OK, that is enough Monday morning quarterbacking for me today!

Best of Luck Tomorrow Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[onefast99]

The race fell apart on the front end and it just happened to be the 12 that was still near the leaders and had a legit shot to win it. The 6 horse was too far back and made a decent run to get up for 3rd, the 2 had nothing left and if not for the 6 being so far out of this race early on that one should of been 2nd.