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jeebus1083
12-17-2007, 12:29 AM
Through 3 days of racing, Hawthorne, Churchill and Laurel shippers have been amazing. HAW shippers are 4-for-10, batting .489 on the URS scale, and are only showing a 1% loss. Only 7 runners have shipped from Churchill, with 2 winning and 1 2nd place finish for a .365 batting average and +57% ROI. Laurel runners are 4-for-12 with a 3rd, netting a .361 batting average and a +70% ROI.

First-time starters have been snakebit thus far. 0-for-20 in the first 3 days of racing, and a 2nd and 3rd leaves the debut runners batting .044 so far. New Jersey and Hoosier shippers are also off slowly, a combined 0-for-31. Shocking is the slow start for Great Lakes shippers. 1 win, 1 2nd and 1 3rd from 12 runners, batting an anemic .157. Since Gerald Bennett and Ron Allen are the primary trainers from that site, it's inevitable that they will eventually kick into high gear.

Our hometown heroes from NYRA have also flattered at Tampa: 2 winners from 4 starters, and a 2nd place finish net a solid .639 batting average and about a +38% ROI.

Michael Dini (Hawthorne), Michael Catalano (Hawthorne), Tony Wilson (Philly/NJ), Dale Bennett (Hawthorne), Forrest Kaelin (Churchill), Gregory Griffith (Calder), and Chad Stewart (Calder) are your "hot" trainers of now, all batting over .300. In the ROI department, Dini and Griffith are bar none getting the value with their winners, as evidenced by their positive ROI's of +113% and +110%. Catalano is 2-for-2, with a +230% return on investment. Watch them close.

One trainer in particular to watch is Bernard Bramante from Suffolk. He has sent out 10 runners so far, and has a win at 13-1, a 2nd at a mind-blowing 88-1, and a 3rd at 9-1. He's only batting .189, but it's obvious that he has a few live ones in his barn early on, and he's come close to really putting over hefty prices in addition to his initial winner this meet.

Lori Smock has a couple of 2nd finishes with some long prices, and she is too good of a trainer not to get a win in the near future.

The track has been pretty fair so far, as early speed nor closers have a distinct edge in sprints. Post positions have also played fairly in short races. Only two races have gone 2 turns on the dirt, and seem to be playing the same as the sprints.

Turf races are playing to both form, inside draws, and mid-pack to late runners. No early speed horses have won on the Tampa turf so far this meet.

That's your Tampa report! Have fun with it!

JustRalph
12-17-2007, 02:42 AM
That's your Tampa report! Have fun with it!

Great stuff! Keep it up!!

whyhorseofcourse
12-17-2007, 07:41 AM
Thanks for posting!
That will give me some angles when I go to bet it on tuesday! :jump:

1st time lasix
12-17-2007, 08:55 AM
The Suffolk shippers helped my "group" catch two really nice tickets Saturday. what surprised us is that they were stepping up in class a bit and hit the board at long odds. Turf course took some rain Friday night and was probably softer than the "good" condition reported. It sure looks nice. It might be one of the best surfaces in the East. Thanks for the report!

jeebus1083
12-17-2007, 09:42 AM
For those who are believers in track bias, here are the Steve Klein Track Bias numbers for the 1st 3 days of main track racing this Tampa meet. Klein's numbers are on a 0 (extreme closers' track) to 300 (extreme speed bias), with a 150 considered a fair and uniform surface. The farther away from the 150 median, the more speed-favoring, or closer-favoring the track is playing.

12/8 - 113 (Fair main track for Opening Day)

12/11 - 150 (Early speed dominant early on, but generally fair)

12/15 - 50 (Severe closer-favoring track on drying surface; nobody better than 3rd at 1st call)

The key with these ratings is to spot a horse's last running who ran strongly "against the grain" on that day, and figures to run strongly again. For example, horses who were front-end speed on 12/15 that ran credibly in defeat may very well be strong betbacks next out.