Rating Tampa Bay shippers

[jeebus1083]

Playing the early weeks at Tampa means a steady diet of shippers from tracks all over. How does one digest these shippers? What tracks are strong with ship-ins and what tracks are weak?

I'm experimenting with using the Universal Rating System (URS) formula that is used to rate the success of drivers and trainers in harness racing to answer that question for me. For those not familiar with it, the URS is a calculation of (# Races Won x 9) + (# Races 2nd x 5) + (# Races 3rd x 3) then divided by (Total # of runners x 9). The result is a "batting average" style of number that is supposed to paint a more accurate picture of a driver's (or trainer's) abilities due to the fact that 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishes are not weighed equally. Like in baseball, a .300 rating is considered extraordinary.

The hope is that calculating a URS for all tracks that have shipped runners into Tampa, it will pinpoint the strong and weak circuits more accurately.

Thoughts?

[JustRalph]

Playing the early weeks at Tampa means a steady diet of shippers from tracks all over. How does one digest these shippers?

I watch and wait. I have made one bet in the first couple of cards. You really have to be careful.............especially with those horses that only run at Tampa Bay.........amazing........they turn out after Tampa and go back into training a month before.............. I probably won't start hitting Tampa hard for another month..........but I am watching closely. If you have lifetime PP's you can find some that return every year for an early score........but I don't usually use lifetime pp's

[john del riccio]

Playing the early weeks at Tampa means a steady diet of shippers from tracks all over. How does one digest these shippers? What tracks are strong with ship-ins and what tracks are weak?

I'm experimenting with using the Universal Rating System (URS) formula that is used to rate the success of drivers and trainers in harness racing to answer that question for me. For those not familiar with it, the URS is a calculation of (# Races Won x 9) + (# Races 2nd x 5) + (# Races 3rd x 3) then divided by (Total # of runners x 9). The result is a "batting average" style of number that is supposed to paint a more accurate picture of a driver's (or trainer's) abilities due to the fact that 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishes are not weighed equally. Like in baseball, a .300 rating is considered extraordinary.

The hope is that calculating a URS for all tracks that have shipped runners into Tampa, it will pinpoint the strong and weak circuits more accurately.

Thoughts?


I agree with Ralph. Wait til the horses have a race or two over the surface. Some really nice horse flop over that surface and others move way up.

Be leary of GP shippers, they get overbet and typically underperform.

John

[Tom]

I'd keep some ealry records - "good looking" paper horses that fail to fire, longshots that move up, and past records by trainers. Right now is the time to catch some nice ones - during the chaos phase.

[garyoz]

While Tampa is a great place to catch prices, my experience is to pay close attention to the tote during the first month of the meet. Action is important-horses often seem like steam jobs -don't leave horses taking action out of gimmicks. IMHO it is easier to toss chalk once the meet is established.

It is a great meet.

[GaryG]

Ronnie Allen is a trainer to watch early in the meet. He usually comes down from Michigan with a barn full of ready horses. His son Mike rides many of them.

[Doc]

I agree about the Michigan connection ... last year, a lot of Great Lakes Downs shippers paid juicy prices when they were overlooked. Not sure how many there will be this season, but they're worth tossing in exotics.

Doc

[boomman]

I agree with Ralph. Wait til the horses have a race or two over the surface. Some really nice horse flop over that surface and others move way up.

Be leary of GP shippers, they get overbet and typically underperform.

John

I agree with BOTH Ralph and John:) If you bet any meet without letting the horses run over the track once, you are doing a high degree of guesswork. I realize it's not possible to wait and see in short meets like Keeneland, so to overcome the "guesswork" there (of who will take to the poly or who won't), I go back to previous poly form, and where the horse is in his current form cycle. Tampa is a long meet so you have the luxury of sitting back the first couple of weeks, then bet back horses at a price that seemed to go well over the sandy Tampa surface..........

Boomer

[Tom]

Last two seasons, Tampa Bay, dirt only, the "USDR" type ratings:

[Tom]

I found an error in my query and re-ran it.
THIS is the right stuff......

[Tom]

This is the USDR type ratings for TURF shippers......

[Bubba X]

I like the early part of the Tampa meet.

I find pace to run a shade under my par early on in sprints as some of the shippers, especially those without TBD races in their past, need to adjust and/or need a race.

Horses without TBD experience are at a strong disadvantage sprinting on dirt first out, especially without two works.

Personally, I find the -3's and p-4's very tough at Tampa and limit play to vertical wagers when I have a strong negative opinion about a low priced runner.

[Wickel]

I seem to remember in recent years that Suffolk shippers were having a major impact on the mutuels, especially in 2006. Tracking the able Suffolk trainers is worth the effort.

[jeebus1083]

Can you do a combination rating of both dirt and turf together?

Thanks

Last two seasons, Tampa Bay, dirt only, the "USDR" type ratings:

[Tom]

Friday morning-will do

[eqitec]

Attached is the 5th at TAM on Sat. which demonstrates exactly the challenge early in the meet. Anyone care to rank this field by class and say why?

[point given]

I just luv them layoffs hoses, just gimme a 3f breeze, and luk good on d'track, and my moneys down. Then them first time maidens, just get my heart a pumpin'. But those $5k claimers in 12 hose fields are sumpin else. :rolleyes: It's been a challenge, and I keep tabs on connections, which has helped a bit. First couple of weeks are worth playin to me, sure its more guesswork,but you get paid for those good guesses. Its a trip.

[Tom]

Can you do a combination rating of both dirt and turf together?

Thanks
Here it is

[jeebus1083]

Thanks!

[GaryG]

Many of the Suffolk shippers are in sharp form and most fit well class wise.