Robert Fischer
12-10-2007, 01:57 PM
I started writing some thoughts on a basic win odds line, in response to a recent thread on Edge and fair odds, and I decided I may as well make a decent draft of it.
There are a lot of threads about creating odds lines here, and some are very good. Some of my opinions and techniques may be different or unorthodox , feel free to criticize, comment or add.
CREATING A WIN ODDS LINE
STEP 1 HANDICAPPING
You have selected a race, and now you must handicap the horses for this specific race. It doesn't matter what handicapping method you use. If you rolled some dice on the table, or watched video and read form, or looked at the horses in the paddock , or ran powerful software programs, you start by handicapping.
CONVERTING A WIN PERCENTAGE
To Convert a Win Percentage for each horse,
Start with the best horse, and move through the several top contenders and do the worst horses last.
Note: A major error that most everyone makes when they start creating odds lines is that they over-estimate the favorite's win probability. If a favorite looks like he "can't miss" than his true probability is probably not any higher than 70%. A beginner will intuitively label him as a 90% shot. It seems like they are near certain winners, and they probably will win that specific race, but that isn't what odds lines are asking.
Most favorites are going to fall between 20 and 40%. If you are outside those guidelines make sure you have a logical reason. An "even money" horse should be around 50%, a 1/5 shot would be 83% (and it better be the Horse of The Year vs. Claimers). You must become familiar with the percentages and how they relate to "fair odds".
Formulas
fair odds= (1/probability) -1
fair probability= 1/(odds +1)
YOUR 40% SHOT
So you say you have the best horse "finished" and you think he has a 40% chance of winning. Who the hell do you think you are, Andrew Beyer ?!? :lol:
I don't think the greatest handicapping consortium in the world could nail down a win percentage for any horse, much less the 40% shot in today's race.
HANDICAPPING YOURSELF / MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY
Next and this is a major step - you have to handicap yourself for this specific race. You HAVE to handicap how accurate you are. It doesn't matter what method you use to handicap, you still have to accurately estimate how accurate you are for this specific horse in this specific race! This is the Measure of Uncertainty or "error range".
You are a solid handicapper. You can read a form , maybe you watched some races and/or punched some numbers... We have to look at this "40% horse" now. He happens to have established form. He ran at this distance 3 of the last 5 races. He looks consistent. The others in this field don't particularly scare me. But we don't know EVERYTHING about this horse and we have to allow for some probability that something will go awry or different. So maybe we can reasonably "handicap our method" for this specific horse as being within 15%.
Now our rough estimate with our error range looks like this:
40% +- 15%
The odds for this horse now have a range from 4/5 to 3-1
Our "edge" for this horse is going to start appearing at odds > 3-1.
40%-15% =25%
1/.25 -1 = 3
FIRST TIME STARTER / UNKNOWN POTENTIAL
Now let's do the first time starter, or the horse with unknown potential which includes lightly raced horses especially well meant animals and/or surface changes.
Good trainer. Good jockey. Good pedigree. Good owner. All the right trainer/sire/…stats. Good works.
Maybe we think a decent starting point is around 18% for this guy.
Now, let’s take this to level 2, and get a little more advanced.
This horse could be the best in the race for all we know. Or maybe he is a dud?? What do we do here toss him? pass the race? This is a tough race.
Well our range of probability may not be equally distributed.
We can give him some points for potential.
So maybe our First Time Starter is 18% +20% -15%
18% +20% -15% ??? UH OH
Hold on! this means I don't bet this horse to win unless he goes off at an impossible >32/1??
why didn't I just say that before I had do the paper work for this horse?
THE BUMS
Most of the time the worst couple/few horses in the race have some slim chance of winning. As a general rule the worst horses (as determined by your handicapping method) will not have as much potential and also allow for less error. Maybe you get something that looks like 4% +2% -4%. That is he is a 6% horse at best. Doesn't mean you or your method got any better, only that this horse obviously has little to no potential to improve. Once in a while (aqueduct winter meet :D) you will find a terrible horse who has both terrible form AND terrible late pace figures. It is ok to disregard these rarities completely from your odds line. You must handicap them, but you don't have to calculate them.
WE STILL HAVEN'T GLANCED AT THE MORNING LINE OR TOTE BOARD YET.
APLICATION TO WAGERING
Wagering could be the longest section here. I will keep it very simple.
WIN WAGERING
Back to the examples; Horse 1 was to get a win bet @ > 3/1 TOTE ODDS , and the FTS was a win bet @>32/1.
To find our overlay odds we subtract the "minus" range of error from our rough estimated odds. ( 40%-15% =25% , 1/.25 -1 = 3 )
EXOTICS
Prerequisite to using odds lines for exotics wagering is that you understand the rules of the wager, and estimate the payouts.
EXACTAS are nice and simple because they give you a payout probable. There are different ways to use probabilities with exactas. My advice is to stick to your win probabilities. If you are great enough to form a separate "place probability" pat yourself on the back.:D One way to use your win probabilities for exactas is to use your minimum figures. Say you had two horses with minimums of 25% and 15%.
.25*.15 = .0375 = 25.7/1 = $52/2 exacta probable.
PICK6 / MULTI RACE WAGERS
These wagers also utilize the "plus" side of your error range. This is where that first time starter and his "potential" may be put to good use. These are expensive wagers especially with coverage. It is better to pass a race if you ca not afford to play on the side of advantage , which is what this thread is about.
FINAL NOTES
Make sure you under-estimate the payout at off. You don't get to lock in Win bets or Exacta probables, so make a low estimate. Know how much the win or exacta probables will change in the final minutes for this track and pool size. This knowledge comes from active practice on paper with respect to time remaining ,tote probables, track, pool size.
When utilizing advanced strategies such as coverage, leverage, hedging etc the strategy goes beyond basic odds line work in this document.
A race with a significant amount of “unknown potential” is going to reflect in the “minus” error range for even the “best” most consistent horses The “plus” potential that the unknowns have, will be reflected in the “minus” potential of the other horses and to a small degree in even the best most consistent rivals. I skipped that step to keep this somewhat straightforward.
- JK "bobby fischer"
There are a lot of threads about creating odds lines here, and some are very good. Some of my opinions and techniques may be different or unorthodox , feel free to criticize, comment or add.
CREATING A WIN ODDS LINE
STEP 1 HANDICAPPING
You have selected a race, and now you must handicap the horses for this specific race. It doesn't matter what handicapping method you use. If you rolled some dice on the table, or watched video and read form, or looked at the horses in the paddock , or ran powerful software programs, you start by handicapping.
CONVERTING A WIN PERCENTAGE
To Convert a Win Percentage for each horse,
Start with the best horse, and move through the several top contenders and do the worst horses last.
Note: A major error that most everyone makes when they start creating odds lines is that they over-estimate the favorite's win probability. If a favorite looks like he "can't miss" than his true probability is probably not any higher than 70%. A beginner will intuitively label him as a 90% shot. It seems like they are near certain winners, and they probably will win that specific race, but that isn't what odds lines are asking.
Most favorites are going to fall between 20 and 40%. If you are outside those guidelines make sure you have a logical reason. An "even money" horse should be around 50%, a 1/5 shot would be 83% (and it better be the Horse of The Year vs. Claimers). You must become familiar with the percentages and how they relate to "fair odds".
Formulas
fair odds= (1/probability) -1
fair probability= 1/(odds +1)
YOUR 40% SHOT
So you say you have the best horse "finished" and you think he has a 40% chance of winning. Who the hell do you think you are, Andrew Beyer ?!? :lol:
I don't think the greatest handicapping consortium in the world could nail down a win percentage for any horse, much less the 40% shot in today's race.
HANDICAPPING YOURSELF / MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY
Next and this is a major step - you have to handicap yourself for this specific race. You HAVE to handicap how accurate you are. It doesn't matter what method you use to handicap, you still have to accurately estimate how accurate you are for this specific horse in this specific race! This is the Measure of Uncertainty or "error range".
You are a solid handicapper. You can read a form , maybe you watched some races and/or punched some numbers... We have to look at this "40% horse" now. He happens to have established form. He ran at this distance 3 of the last 5 races. He looks consistent. The others in this field don't particularly scare me. But we don't know EVERYTHING about this horse and we have to allow for some probability that something will go awry or different. So maybe we can reasonably "handicap our method" for this specific horse as being within 15%.
Now our rough estimate with our error range looks like this:
40% +- 15%
The odds for this horse now have a range from 4/5 to 3-1
Our "edge" for this horse is going to start appearing at odds > 3-1.
40%-15% =25%
1/.25 -1 = 3
FIRST TIME STARTER / UNKNOWN POTENTIAL
Now let's do the first time starter, or the horse with unknown potential which includes lightly raced horses especially well meant animals and/or surface changes.
Good trainer. Good jockey. Good pedigree. Good owner. All the right trainer/sire/…stats. Good works.
Maybe we think a decent starting point is around 18% for this guy.
Now, let’s take this to level 2, and get a little more advanced.
This horse could be the best in the race for all we know. Or maybe he is a dud?? What do we do here toss him? pass the race? This is a tough race.
Well our range of probability may not be equally distributed.
We can give him some points for potential.
So maybe our First Time Starter is 18% +20% -15%
18% +20% -15% ??? UH OH
Hold on! this means I don't bet this horse to win unless he goes off at an impossible >32/1??
why didn't I just say that before I had do the paper work for this horse?
THE BUMS
Most of the time the worst couple/few horses in the race have some slim chance of winning. As a general rule the worst horses (as determined by your handicapping method) will not have as much potential and also allow for less error. Maybe you get something that looks like 4% +2% -4%. That is he is a 6% horse at best. Doesn't mean you or your method got any better, only that this horse obviously has little to no potential to improve. Once in a while (aqueduct winter meet :D) you will find a terrible horse who has both terrible form AND terrible late pace figures. It is ok to disregard these rarities completely from your odds line. You must handicap them, but you don't have to calculate them.
WE STILL HAVEN'T GLANCED AT THE MORNING LINE OR TOTE BOARD YET.
APLICATION TO WAGERING
Wagering could be the longest section here. I will keep it very simple.
WIN WAGERING
Back to the examples; Horse 1 was to get a win bet @ > 3/1 TOTE ODDS , and the FTS was a win bet @>32/1.
To find our overlay odds we subtract the "minus" range of error from our rough estimated odds. ( 40%-15% =25% , 1/.25 -1 = 3 )
EXOTICS
Prerequisite to using odds lines for exotics wagering is that you understand the rules of the wager, and estimate the payouts.
EXACTAS are nice and simple because they give you a payout probable. There are different ways to use probabilities with exactas. My advice is to stick to your win probabilities. If you are great enough to form a separate "place probability" pat yourself on the back.:D One way to use your win probabilities for exactas is to use your minimum figures. Say you had two horses with minimums of 25% and 15%.
.25*.15 = .0375 = 25.7/1 = $52/2 exacta probable.
PICK6 / MULTI RACE WAGERS
These wagers also utilize the "plus" side of your error range. This is where that first time starter and his "potential" may be put to good use. These are expensive wagers especially with coverage. It is better to pass a race if you ca not afford to play on the side of advantage , which is what this thread is about.
FINAL NOTES
Make sure you under-estimate the payout at off. You don't get to lock in Win bets or Exacta probables, so make a low estimate. Know how much the win or exacta probables will change in the final minutes for this track and pool size. This knowledge comes from active practice on paper with respect to time remaining ,tote probables, track, pool size.
When utilizing advanced strategies such as coverage, leverage, hedging etc the strategy goes beyond basic odds line work in this document.
A race with a significant amount of “unknown potential” is going to reflect in the “minus” error range for even the “best” most consistent horses The “plus” potential that the unknowns have, will be reflected in the “minus” potential of the other horses and to a small degree in even the best most consistent rivals. I skipped that step to keep this somewhat straightforward.
- JK "bobby fischer"