rocketsirgin

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box.

I would appreciate if you would post your note and results on the board, so others can see what "works" for me can work for others.

Have an E-mail from PA that my PM box is filling again and to please delete. I would appreciate any other requests to be posted here, as It is a long and timely process to delete froim the PM box

[ljb]

I just stumbled on your post concerning chinese doubles a couple days back. I have been checking this out at aqu and gulfstream the last couple of days and found it to be profitable. Now this is not to say one can blindly bet the top selection based on the calculations. But i have made money using this method the last couple days.
Thanks

[PaceAdvantage]

Karl, instead of posting a note to each and every individual you send a PM to, why not just post one addressed to the group who asked for info....

Thanks...


==PA

[LOU M.]

If you would be so kind as to include me I'd appreciate it. Thanks.

[karlskorner]

Thanks for the suggestion, you are talking to someone with the "computer mentality" of a Commodore 64, which I was very happy with 23 years ago, I will try it later on. Meanwhile, I am going to rewrite it tonight, as I was letting out some personal "steam", which really didn't belong and forgot 1/2 of what I wanted to say, so it turned into 2 seperate posts.

Lou M

If I finish it tonight, I will send it out along withseveral others

[karlskorner]

Rewritten is in your PM box

[LOU M.]

I did'nt receive it?No rush.

[rockitsirgin]

Karl,

Got 'em. Thanks for sending me the info. Here's the note:

I REALLY like the CD you shared with us. I found another one at TUP on Sunday...

Turf Paradise Race 6 - Jan 12, 2003

__DDWP___M/L____PRO_ODDS
1...$59...........5/1....................12
2...$30...........3/1....................10
3..$157........10/1...................16
4..$129........15/1.....................9
5..............scratched.................
6..$314........20/1...................16
7...$16..........5/2......................6
8...$61...........6.......................10
9..$109........15/1....................7

#9 won and paid $21.80
the 9-7 exacta paid $74.60
sweeeeeeeeet

Thanks again Karl!!!

Garrett

[karlskorner]

Check again, I forgot the period after M

To others who I have sent PM on key races, I have rewritten it, it's more understandable now.

[LOU M.]

Got it, thanks. Your one busy guy!

[lefthandlow]

hey guy can I get a copy of you attachment

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

I rarely pass up a chance to learn something and would appreciate seeing what you've done.

Could you send me a copy as well?

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

DaveSchwartz@HorseStreet.Com

[karlskorner]

Dave;

This one I take great pride in sending. I didn't reinvent the wheel, but it''s something that has "worked" for me for a long time. Actually I am sending the last 2. Maybe with your background you can put up a program that does more than 1 manually. Try the CD, it really works.

Karl

P.S.

As a former Miamian you'll really appreciate this , it's 45 degrees outside

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

Thanks for taking the time.

This is powerful stufff... especially the scratch thing.

Key races are a bit tough to decipher because of the dividing line between horses that can and those that can't.

Someone once shared a similar scratch system with me, but I believe this is more powerful.

What did you mean by "Try the CD, it really works?"

Dave

[delayjf]

kARL,

You sent me your key race outline a while back, would like the new issue if you don't mind. Send it :

delayjf2002@yahoo.com

Thanks

Bye the bye, I read and tried the Al Illich version of the CD about 20 years ago, don't recall a lot of winners, but did get many longshot contenders who ran well. I stopped using it thinking that the DD pools were to small and insignificant for the insiders to wager there. Will have to revisit the issue. thanks again.

[JimG]

Karl,

I'd appreciate the info on key races.

Thanks

Jim

[karlskorner]

CD

The now "infamous Chinese Double", see my original post. It really works as mentioned in this and my PM mail

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

Ah, now I get it.

Thanks again.

Dave

[karlskorner]

A couple days back somebody made a statement , that I needed a pat on the back and another made the statement that I was an egotist and needed " thank you's ". But I noticed each and every post and PM mail I get now has a Thank you.

It doesn't "hoit" to say "Thank You" as my momma said a long time ago. The check out people at the local market look at me in surprise when they hand me my change and I say thank you.
No one ever thanks them, they are just taken for granted. Try it.

[karlskorner]

Your quote from the movie "Let it Ride" I always liked the line "you like the ODDS better on getting struck by Lightning"

[cj]

Karl,

Not to be picky, but the quote is:

"What, you like the odds on lightning?"

I have watched that movie about 200 times, not an exaggeration!

:)

CJ

[Tom]

Karl,
If it's not too much trouble, could I get in on this Key Race of ours?
Sounds from this thread like a must-read.
Thank you.

BTW, do you track key races at more than one track? I used to try to do several when I was downloading TM result charts, but I have cut back to NYRA, Pen, FL, and TAM due to cost and thanks to GT's parser...but the free charts don't have the last race data.

[JoeH]

Hello Karl, Could please you send me a copy of this key method?

Thank You, Joe


josephhayes@earthlink.net[/EMAIL]

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Karl, me too! Me too! :D

Much appreciated..

MP

[hurrikane]

karl,

is the scratch thing the trainer scratch piece you mentioned a long time ago?

Thanks

[karlskorner]

Yes, except I threw in a couple of examples how to use it.

[karlskorner]

It's in your box. To the rest you'll have to wait ahwile, I have to empty the box again

[LOU M.]

Karl,could you be so kind to send the scratch play. I have CD and Key Race. Thank you, Lou M.

[Tom]

Many thanks. Better than the morning paper with my coffee today <G>.

[ponyplayer]

Following this thread really really built up the suspense, is the information too long to post?

[NormanTD]

Well, I feel left out.

Karl, could I get copies of your key race set up and the chinese double? (And anything else that you're giving away!)

via PA or direct email

farsteve@yahoo.com

Thanks!

Steve AKA NormanTD

[LOU M.]

Anyone interested in using this method might read Steven Davidowitzs' book Betting Thoroughbreds. He has a chapter on this method with some addtional tips that could be helpful.The only reason I'm not printing them here is I don't know if it's legal to do so without permission. Maybe Dave or Dick know him and can get permission.Try for the 1995 edition.

[karlskorner]

The Chinese Double is about 10-12 down on this site. Read the whole thing, it's a "fun" read

I will send you the other 2 in Private Mail

[Zaf]

Hey Karl,

You already sent me the KR thing a while back.

I wouldn't mind checking out the scratch thing.

Thanks

ZAFONIC

[karlskorner]

Bottom half of DD at GP today #6

Low number in the Chinese Double.
Out of a K2 "key race" 12./20 (charts)
Wearing "shadow Roll" first time (charts)
Claimed twice in 60 days (somebody likes him)
Jorge Chavez in the saddle

Paid $22.80

Finished for the day having more than doubled my walking-in money in the first 2 races. From a pamphlet published by Gamblers BC, 1977 by James Hills. He quoted the often used phrase

" All horse players die broke "

He added to it " those who gamble on horses, will end up broke if they do not "quit" when they are ahead". Liked it, loved it and live by it

Hung around for the 4th race to "watch" my other "key race horse" for the day, number 11, placed ($4.00), beaten by a FTS with "Lasix", had he an inside post he could have won.

[Larry Hamilton]

Just for the sake of correctness, let's one more time note...

If you have two races back to back, absolute nothing you do in the first race affects your probability of winning the second race.

It is never "your turn" to win.

If you don't know what the risk is, how can you determine if the reward is adequate,

Those are undisputable facts. If you are winning and going home early it's in spite of these facts, not because of them.

[karlskorner]

Just one more time, for those to try to understand.

The first race has "nothing" to do with the 2nd race. I approach it as a single unit, I am not interested in the probabilities posted on the tote board that the DD will pay. The race is run, I won.

Now comes the 2nd race, a new race. All I do is divide the M/L as published in the program "into" the DD payoff of each horse in the 2nd race. I am interested in the "lowest" number or low numbers. In today's case the #6 was both a low number and a "key race" horse, by all indications I should have doubled my usuall $40.00 wager, I didn't.

I now have a profit of $624.00, less the 2 $40.00 win wagers I made, leaves a profit of $544.00, or $144.00 over my goal of $400.00 a day. Should I leave or continue wagering becasue I "am on a roll" or I am LUCKY. What would you do ?

I have emptied my Private Mail box 3 times in the past few days with messages from people who have found it to work, so I know
they understand the method.

Larry , PLEASE, don't lay on my head about "undisputable facts" and "risk and reward", I am trying to earn a days pay in my own way.

[Thomason]

Karl,

My friend Buzz Donlon shared your key race method with me. I mark the charts the same method that Davidowitz discusses in his book but it's difficult to constantly refer back to the charts when you're handicapping several cards and time is precious. With your method, I can create a summary that saves time. It's simple and it works. Thank you.

Michael Thomason

[Zaf]

Thanks again Karl. I appreciate it.

ZAFONIC

[karlskorner]

Sometime in the future I will post how I handle "turf races" A method put together by Mike Fiore ( "bookwriter" and a teacher of Math ) 20 years ago. Had I stayed for the rest of the races today I would have had both turf racs ($6.00 & $12.00 ), but nothing else.

Mike Fiore's book "How to beat the races" was published in thr 70's before we devised the method. In my opinion, many of the books that followed took his basic thinking and methods and expanded on them. He lived until his 86th year, I learned a lot from him about the business of racing horses, he truly was a "craftsman" who knew the "trade" of handicapping

[cato]

Karl. Please send me the key race method. I look forward to getting it.

fpolk@hotmail.com

Thanks,
Cato

[karlskorner]

I'll throw in "scratched horses" as we are having a special today.

[Amazin]

Karl

In light of recent posts,don't take the following statement as a personal attack,but look at it as a discussion.If you're winning with this system,more power to you.
What I don't like about the CD is that a huge factor is the M.L. The system pivots on the morning line dude who may not have had his coffee or found his glasses the day he created the M.L.Or more commonly he may not be making an accurate M.L. A horse bet down from 20-1 to 6-1 is not necessarily steam.It's could just as likely be the lone speed that the M.L. dude missed.So in reality the horse should have been 6-1.Hence when the doubles also reflect this and you win because you're dividing the inflated M.L.into the DD you think you have a secret play.All you have is a reflection that the M.L. dude missed this horse as a contender.Or look at it as if the horse was at another track and that M.L. dude had his coffee and his glasses and was a little more alert,and he made him 6-1.Suddenly it's not steam.I am surprised that so many are looking at this angle as if it's the first time they've heard of it. There are many ways to spot money play's from opening odds as Cramer talks about to exacta probables etc.It's nothing new.But relying on other peoples opinion (M.L),or their money(steam) is in my experience a road to ruin.If you can't handicap for yourself,you will never become a winning player.

[karlskorner]

Well put and carefully thought out and it certainly has logic to what you have said and I take no personal offense. For the past 20 years I have lived through 6 M/L makers (maybe more) at 3 different tracks, until HIA closed. One M/L maker was an usher at HIA, who also made the M/L (no slight on ushers) and the concept that certain M/L makers were/are inept is acceptable.

The logic as to why it has worked for "me" and apparently some others who have recently tried it and responded, never entered my mind, if I really knew why it works, I probably wouldn't go near it. I offered it purely as something that has "worked" for me, to those who are of the mind to find out why it works or shouldn't work, your on your own. I personally look forward to the next 20 years

[Handy Cap]

As a fan and employee of the game, I have taken many different approaches to Racing. It seems the angles that I devise work very well the first 2 or 3 days I try it. Then after that, straight down the tubes. Karl, I have been reading your posts, and it sounds very interesting. I have always been trying to incorporate early money and funny money into my handicapping somehow, but just have never found a way that works on a consistent basis. If you can please send me your information, I would really appreciate it. Thank You..

Handy

[Larry Hamilton]

I was only trying to help with the stat/prob math facts. You can choose to ignore what ever you like.

I will say this, you have taken two half baked ideas, that are both proveby wrong and convinced half this board that you have the way. You should have been a used car salesman.

[rockitsirgin]

my two cents

Before PA pulls the plug on this thread, here's the way I see the CD/secret play from my point of view.

I do not have much skill at handicapping. If there were such a thing as a handicapping test, I would surely fall into the bottom 5 percent of anyone who posts on this board.

Those of you who have followed the CD/secret play posts closely already know that I have been testing this method at Turf Paradise. Yesterday, Sunday, 1-19-03 I was 3 for 3 on my win bets using this method. The difference was that this time I used real money instead of paper bets. Here are the numbers:

Turf Paradise 1-19-03 Race 5

....M/L....................DDWP..................PRO_ODD S...........
1....8.......................$100................. .........13...................
2....4.........................$38................ ..........10..................
3....8.........................$52................ ...........7...................
4...30.......................$551................. .........18..................
5...3.5........................$45................ ..........13..................
6....5.........................$50................ ...........10.................
7...20......................$1,103................ .........55.................
8...12........................$367................ .........31.................
9....3.........................$76................ ...........25................
10..15.......................$551................. .........37................

The 3 horse had the lowest proportionate odds and paid $12.80

Turf Paradise 1-19-03 Race 8

....M/L....................DDWP...............PRO_ODDS.. ..........
1...3.5......................$28.................. ......8......................
2..........................scratched.............. ............................
3....8........................$26................. .......3.....................
4...10......................$158.................. .....16....................
5....8........................$70................. .......9......................
6....2........................$14................. .......7......................
7...15......................$192.................. .....13.....................
8...12......................$116.................. .....10.....................

The 3 horse had the lowest proportionate odds and paid $7.20
The 3 horse was 4 to 1 as they loaded into the gate, then by half way through the race was down to 5 to 2.

Turf Paradise 1-19-03 Race 9

....M/L.....................DDWP...............PRO_ODDS. ...........
1. 5.........................$62..................... ...12....................
2....6.........................$78................ ........13....................
3...20.......................$241................. .......12...................
4...........................scratched............. ...............................
5...2.5........................$31................ ........12....................
6....8..........................$46............... ..........6....................
7...15........................$273................ .......18....................
8...4.5........................$75................ ........17....................
9...3.5........................$49................ ........14....................

The 6 horse had the lowest proportionate odds and paid $9.60
I also plunked $4 down on a 5, 6 exacta box and hit it for $29.60

Fellers...all I know is that it works. I really don't care at this point how or why.

Did I have any losing tickets at Turf Paradise on this day? Sure I did. I lost $2 on a quinella in race 2, and $4 on race 6 (quinella and a trifecta). Still, a VERY good day (for me).

The win bets? $5 in race 5......$5 in race 8....and $10 in race 9.

Garrett

[Handy Cap]

You Know, I hate the know-it-alls on this board. Why critisize someone for the way he bets, or how much he bets, or when someone leaves the track, or what system he uses. The fact of the matter is, the bottom line is, making money. I am always ready to explore new ideas. Even if you are a winning horseplayer, shouldn't you try and strive to make more? The only way I believe to do this, is to explore new ideas. You dont go to war with just guns...you go to war with cannons and tanks and ships and planes and grenades..etc...etc...you need as many different weapons as you can to beat this game.

I have complexed and crunched figures so much it makes my head spin..But when I simplify things, it seems to work better...right now, I am doing something very simple that has made me a winner 3 days in a row. Will I say what it is?? no...Why?? because not only is it so stupid I would get laughed off this board, but its simple.... it doesnt take college level calculus to figure out.

So in conclusion, why blast Karl because its simple? Just because its simple, it cant work? Karl, don't listen to them!

[PaceAdvantage]

Rocketsirgin -- Wasn't thinking of pulling plug, but if you'd like me too.....


As for Handy Cap's comments....difference of opinion is what makes this place go round and round. Try not to take things too personally.



==PA

[hurrikane]

The thing about this game is there are as many different ways to win as there are people.

I can't tell you how many times people have told me you can't win this game handicapping trainers.
Even the illustrious(?) Dick Mitchell said anyone who thinks they can beat this game handicapping trainers is just plain stupid.

Anyone who thinks they have the crystal ball and you 'have' to use speed, pace, adj Beyers, the moon, the stars, the tote board, a crooked jock is just saying this is how they do it. And it wins for them, for now. Just take is as a grain of salt.

Me, I'll just keep being stupid...all the way to the bank.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well said.

And if someone comes on here claiming to have a winning method, and YOU decided to use this method and lose without testing it beforehand, you have nobody to blame but yourself. But at least it will be a learning experience, right??


==PA

[karlskorner]

Have been gone for a couple hours, came home to find a slew of messages from PA that my inbox in Private Mail has overflowed again. To the above and others I cleaned it up

[sligg]

karlskorner

The Secret Play (Illich) with the four point difference doesn't come up often wherin the Chinese Double gives you a play in most races because you don't use this restriction.

Do you have any restrictions on CD as to when you have a bet. For example, in the SP, Illich eliminated the two morning line favorites saying that they are always bet in the doubles. Do you do this in the CD?

How about closing odds. Do you look for minimum odds in any of the CD contenders?

I'm not sure how many horses you bet in the CD. Is it one, two, or three? How do you handle ties in the proportional odds:

For example: 8 9 12 12-do you bet the four horses or try to seperate the two ties in some way?

[traildriver]

Karl

Will you send me the material on the Chinese Doubles? Thank you.

[karlskorner]

Been requested by PA to empty PM box again. Done.

Traildriver will answer you in PM
Sligg will answer you in PM

[traildriver]

Karl
Thank you for sending CD material. I have it now.

[tcat]

Karl, I would appreciate the same email as the others.
tomcat62@alltel.net.

As far as the critic...if there was one handicapping method better than any other, everyone would be using it!

Thanks for sharing.

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box

[t.martin]

Karl, could you email the info as well. Thanks.
tomartin17@hotmail.com

[Tom]

Karl,
I found that book in my basement. Been a long time since I looked at it. Giving it a re-read. I found a bunch of old school-notebook lined paper notes I hand-wrote way back when in the back of the book. Looks like I used it a lot at some point.
Thanks for reminding me about it.
Looking forward to your turf ideas.

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box

[tcat]

Karl, nothing showed up...?

Karl, I would appreciate the same email as the others.
tomcat62@alltel.net.

[karlskorner]

I didn't E-mail it, it is in your private message box

[David McKenzie]

Karl,

Please be so kind as to send me your CD material, your list of favorite TV shows, suggested movies to rent and latest gossip about Madonna in South Beach.

With undying gratitude,
David

(who suspects you have a sense of humor, or I'm in big trouble)

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box. Today you caught the Triple, you get all 3 for the same price.

[jk3521]

Karl,

Please send me info on key race and scrach plays, very interested. Thanx.

jk3521@juno.com

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box, you caught the special

[jk3521]

Karl,


I used to play the old scratch system when I first started betting the horses in the early 70's (dating myself) and I hit many a long shot with it. It works best at a short meet such as Saratoga, where there are just so many races in a short period of time and of course every owner and trainer wants to win one at that historic track. I never tried it at Del Mar, but I'm sure that it would work well there too. Thanx again.

[rockitsirgin]

Karl,

I have both e-mails on the key race method, but I don't have the scratch method. Could you send it to my PM box? Thanks.

Garrett

[karlskorner]

Done. I am seriously thinking of hiring on an assistant

[tcat]

Karl, sorry to be so dense, but where is my PM box?

[Zaf]

Boy what a difference a few weeks make. Karl went from kicking bag to celebrity.

Way to go Karl !!!

ZAFONIC

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by tcat
Karl, sorry to be so dense, but where is my PM box?


Scroll to the top of this page, click the PROFILE button, then click the PRIVATE MESSAGES link....



==PA

[tcat]

Thank you Karl, was there another one you were willing to share. I am indebited and will reply with one of my formulas.

[panda1]

Karl,

if you would be so kind to let me have the material also...........much appreciated:D...........coach1958@aol.com

[karlskorner]

It's in your Private Mail Box

[karlskorner]

One of the other methods I was going to post was how I have handled turf races for the past 20 years, but the method would fill 30 pages of controversy and I really don't have the time to skirt the flak.

[Zaf]

Why don't you email it to those interested. I suck on the turf. I'll try anything !!!

ZAFONIC

[panda1]

Thanks Karl,

i agree about the turf system..........This board loves to argue.......but if you decide to pass on the turf system .......i for one would love to see it........... Thanks again

[rockitsirgin]

Karl,

I would also like to see your turf method. You mentioned awhile back about hiring an assistant. Is $0.00 per hour acceptable? If you want to share your turf method, I will help with forwarding it to others who are interested. Will that work? I have a day job, but I can help out at night.

Maybe all those that are interested should post to this thread only, instead of flooding your PM box? In other words, if you don't ask for the turf method here, by posting a message...you don't get the info.

Will that be acceptable to PA...or is there a limit to how many replies one thread can have?

As far as handling the flak from your "fans" of the CD, you could always say something like..."I absolutely agree with you. Why do it the easy way, when you can do it the HARD way". Simple and to the point. Or, "hey! If you've got a better way - now's the time. We're all ears."

Garrett:D

[Larry Hamilton]

Ain't it amazin'. Karl has such a strong fan club base, they come out of the wood work when needed and they all love him so much they sound like him, type like him, have grammar and punctuation like him. Such a responsibility to have so many followers....

This has become sick and we appear to be the game.

[LOU M.]

Could you forward the turf method I'd appreciate it. Thanks,Lou M.

[Vinnie]

Hello Karl,

I too would love to see your turf method, if you don't mind forwarding it to me, I would appreciate it very much.

Thanks in advance Karl!

Vinnie

email: vincents94@juno.com

[Vinnie]

Karl,

If you aren't totally worn out over all of this already <G>.. Could you please send me your information on Key races and Scratch plays as well?

I would really appreciate it a great deal.

Thanks a bunch Karl.

Have a Super Day today.

Vinnie

email: vincents94@juno.com

[karlskorner]

Re: turf method.

Not at this time. They even have started another CD thread on Handicappaing Software, even PA is involved. It's out of control.

[karlskorner]

It is in your PM box

[karlskorner]

I was thinking of moving over to LARRY HAMILTONS "HAMBOWL FORUM".........Whoops, it's not there any more. I guess too much of the "same old, same old"

[Larry Hamilton]

I will close it before I allow a fraud to take over..and you, Jack, are a fraud.

[rockitsirgin]

Larry,

Thanks for stopping by. Don't let your shirttail hit you in the butt on the way out.

Garrett

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow. I think all of you have gone bonkers.....


Time to close this thread....since everyone loves to PM Karl, what's the point of keeping it open anyway, right??


==PA