Beyer v. Speed Ratings

[OaklawnRailBird]

The DRF has Beyer ratings and Speed ratings

If the Beyer number takes into account the track, conditions, and all of the other horses that have run at that track at that distance; then what is the point of the Speed Ratings?

I realize that this question is more than likely retarded. I am new to this and any help you could give would be appreciated.

[Show Me the Wire]

Not a retarded question at all.

Simple answer the Beyer number does not take into account the track's physical condition, i.e. sloppy, sealed, etc. The Beyer theoretically makes a speed rating to equalize different performances in various classes and distances. It is an objective measure of performance by the individual horse on a specific day.

The DRF speed rating includes the track variant, which measures the performance of a horse against the three year best time (usually not available with the new surfaces) at that specific track at that specific distance and the variant is usually a component of most speed figures.

[the_fat_man]

I don't know if you saw the recent decision by the Olympic Committee, in conjuction with the world track and field organization,

BUT

they going to do an about face and GIVE BACK all the medals taken away from those caught JUICING in competition

and they're also going to reinstate any records set that were taken away as well

their attitude is basically: WE DON'T care HOW (under what conditions) THEY RAN the RACE but rather HOW FAST they ran. In fact, we're only focuing on the FINAL TIME as an ABSOLUTE!!!!

which means that they can't penalize the juicers/cheaters

so, I welcome you and others like you, new to the game, who are looking for answers in numbers rather than attempting to actually
LEARN the game. I suspect in a number of weeks you'll be posting as an expert in all the relevent threads (I'm sure we'll be revisiting)

instead of firing up some replays and watching a few races, you choose to focus on how 2 numbers relate to each other. very abstract of you.

keep 'em coming, boys

this is why the game will always be CRUSHABLE

[Show Me the Wire]

Hey fat man:

Take it easy. The popster has a legitimate question about published data wondering why there are two forms of speed ratings in the DRF if they both measure the same thing?

[the_fat_man]

I realize that.

And, I'm basically telling him that it might be a good idea to learn something about the game first before tackling the real difficult modeling questions.

Even the commentators had a basic grounding in philosophy before they became apologists for a particular philosopher/school.

Then again: ALL IN!!!!:lol:

I mean, is there anything more boring than turning on a racing show and finding that Dan ILLman is one of the guest handicappers? Every other word out ILLman's of mouth is 'Beyer'. :D Beyer fig this, Beyer fig that. Talk about paradigm inculcation.

[Overlay]

Simple answer the Beyer number does not take into account the track's physical condition, i.e. sloppy, sealed, etc. The Beyer theoretically makes a speed rating to equalize different performances in various classes and distances. It is an objective measure of performance by the individual horse on a specific day.

I agree with you about equalizing classes and distances, but wasn't one of Beyer's main objectives also to take into account the effect of day-to-day changes in the nature of the racing surface on final times?

[njcurveball]

The DRF has Beyer ratings and Speed ratings

If the Beyer number takes into account the track, conditions, and all of the other horses that have run at that track at that distance; then what is the point of the Speed Ratings?

I realize that this question is more than likely retarded. I am new to this and any help you could give would be appreciated.

This is a good question and anyone who embraces concepts like Blink should love answering it.

The Beyer number is based on a projection adjusted to reality. The DRF calculation is purely based on reality.

Many people use the speed of the horse as a quick (aka Blink) method to get contenders. They simply go down the page and look for the top 10 or so ratings and circle those horses. Some go back 2 races, some 3 races, etc.

The mechanical speed rating has a severe limitation, since the track may be extremely fast or slow, but only one or two races may be run for that distance/surface combo.

They make different variants for routes and sprints, as well as, turf or dirt.

On a given day at Fair Grounds (for example), they may have a maiden race and a stakes race both going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. The stakes field may break the track record and the maiden field may go 4 seconds slow.

The variant is averaged from those 2 races thus making it worthless to gauge the speed of the track.

However, on a day where they have 6 dirt sprints and mostly cheap claimers (say Phila Park), the variant can actually be pretty good.

People embrace the Beyer number because it is consistent even if only one race is run on that particular surface for the day.


Jim

[FlyinLate]

He asked a simple question, no need to just down his throat for it.
It's not like he phrased it "Which is better and more accurate so I could use it as my sole form of handicapping to make money?". He just politely asked the difference. To me it looks like he is trying to "learn the game" as you put it. I personally don't like speed ratings, but whether I like them or not they are part of the game.

[Show Me the Wire]

Overlay:

From reading his early works a loooong time ago in a distant, ah excuse me. It seemed to me the variant was more important to accounting for the classier days than the actual physical condition of the track. I do not remember his theory being big on biases, but of course the physical part of the track did contribute to the variant for the day in question.

Any how I was trying to give a simple answer to a rather complex issue.

[the_fat_man]

He asked a simple question, no need to just down his throat for it.
It's not like he phrased it "Which is better and more accurate so I could use it as my sole form of handicapping to make money?". He just politely asked the difference. To me it looks like he is trying to "learn the game" as you put it. I personally don't like speed ratings, but whether I like them or not they are part of the game.

Yet another sensitive GIRLIE BOY (assuming) on this forum. :lol:

I realize that the suggestion of a paradigm shift will rub some the wrong way.

Typically one starts with a complicated event or object, then attempts to model it for better insight. Here, we go directly to the model without consideration of the event. Ass backwards, if you ask me.

[Tom]

2 out of 10 posts in this thread are insulting new members.


Do we really need to put with this childish behavior?



Oaklawn RailBird:
Welcome to the board - MOST here are civilized adults.
You will find the Beyer number is transferable track to track and distance to distance, but be careful that the HORSE can actually get the distance.

[nobeyerspls]

The DRF has Beyer ratings and Speed ratings

If the Beyer number takes into account the track, conditions, and all of the other horses that have run at that track at that distance; then what is the point of the Speed Ratings?

I realize that this question is more than likely retarded. I am new to this and any help you could give would be appreciated.

I suggest that you ignore both numbers in your handicapping. Before you do you might want to read one or more of Beyer's books as he is a knowledgable horseman who made an honest effort to digitize the performance of thoroughbreds.
The next step is to peruse the past performances to look for horses winning at 10-1 or more and horses losing at 8-5 or less. You'll see a high beyer assigned to the win, often much higher than those preceeding the win. Conversely, the losing favorites will be assigned a much lower number for the loss. You will then question the predictive value of figures and look to handicapping methods and strategies that avoid their use.
Welcome to the forum.

[Dahoss9698]

2 out of 10 posts in this thread are insulting new members.


Do we really need to put with this childish behavior?



Oaklawn RailBird:
Welcome to the board - MOST here are civilized adults.
You will find the Beyer number is transferable track to track and distance to distance, but be careful that the HORSE can actually get the distance.

TFM's point is actually a valid one. He probably could have been a little nicer about it, but whatever. I'm obviously new around here, but are you like the board cop?

[njcurveball]

TFM's point is actually a valid one.

I really do not see how it was valid to the original question. It was a nice rant about the Olympics and watching replays and how his opinion is that numbers mean nothing.

Look at the recent threads on jockeys, trainers, workouts, etc. There is more than one opinion or method winning today.

[rcknhrse]

The DRF speed ratings have been in that publication since "forever".They were and are a quick unscientific way of providing a number with which to compare different horses.The DRF only purchased the rights to the BEYERS because the Beyers were originally published in the now defunt SPORTS EYE and SPORTS EYE was draining customers away from the DRF.

They kept the old "SPEED RATINGS" because some of their longtime customers preferred the old system.
If you want an explanation of the fallacy of the old DRF speed ratings read BEYERS the winning horseplayer.
As far as the usefullness of speed figures they are just 1 of many tools along with trip handicapping ,trainer patterns ,pace figures,identifying a track bias,predicting the early pace setters,reading the tote board....

[Dahoss9698]

I really do not see how it was valid to the original question. It was a nice rant about the Olympics and watching replays and how his opinion is that numbers mean nothing.

Look at the recent threads on jockeys, trainers, workouts, etc. There is more than one opinion or method winning today.

This was the point I thought was valid.



And, I'm basically telling him that it might be a good idea to learn something about the game first before tackling the real difficult modeling questions.

[FlyinLate]

Yet another sensitive GIRLIE BOY (assuming) on this forum. :lol:

I realize that the suggestion of a paradigm shift will rub some the wrong way.

Typically one starts with a complicated event or object, then attempts to model it for better insight. Here, we go directly to the model without consideration of the event. Ass backwards, if you ask me.

Sad to see that I'm "girly" because I'm not an arrogant prick like yourself. I'm not even going to stoop to your level and try and make e-thug comments back. 90% of people who act like you online do it because if they made comments like that in person they'd get their teeth knocked in. You wouldn't happen to be from Chicago? :cool:

[njcurveball]

This was the point I thought was valid.

And, I'm basically telling him that it might be a good idea to learn something about the game first before tackling the real difficult modeling questions.




Some would say that was exactly what he was trying to do before being ambushed in this thread.

[Dahoss9698]

Some would say that was exactly what he was trying to do before being ambushed in this thread.

That's the great thing about opinions, we all have them. As for the ambushing, could you be more dramatic?

[Fastracehorse]

I suggest that you ignore both numbers in your handicapping. Before you do you might want to read one or more of Beyer's books as he is a knowledgable horseman who made an honest effort to digitize the performance of thoroughbreds.
The next step is to peruse the past performances to look for horses winning at 10-1 or more and horses losing at 8-5 or less. You'll see a high beyer assigned to the win, often much higher than those preceeding the win. Conversely, the losing favorites will be assigned a much lower number for the loss. You will then question the predictive value of figures and look to handicapping methods and strategies that avoid their use.
Welcome to the forum.

Like anything, if U take it out of context it doesn't mean much.

It is not uncommon to see a horse bounce off of a top effort. Hence, is a high BSF always predicitive of a 'supposedly' high effort again?? Or is it perceived to be a predicitve factor??

It actually has nothing to do with the Beyer - the horse may bounce regardless of the fact the Beyers even existed or not.

Is a young improving racehorse's BSF predicitive of the same effort next out?? Or is there a possibility he might improve??

Beyers are just another method of evaluating/prediciting performance. They are useful because they are packaged and wrapped in a neat and tidy numerical gift.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

IMHO use Beyers.

But U have to understand that horses ebb and flow with consistency.

The question for U is: Why is that??

fffastt

[the little guy]

The DRF speed ratings have been in that publication since "forever".They were and are a quick unscientific way of providing a number with which to compare different horses.The DRF only purchased the rights to the BEYERS because the Beyers were originally published in the now defunt SPORTS EYE and SPORTS EYE was draining customers away from the DRF.




They were not in the Sports Eye. They were in the Racing Times.

[Cratos]

The DRF has Beyer ratings and Speed ratings

If the Beyer number takes into account the track, conditions, and all of the other horses that have run at that track at that distance; then what is the point of the Speed Ratings?

I realize that this question is more than likely retarded. I am new to this and any help you could give would be appreciated.

I don’t use either Beyers speed figures or the DRF’s speed ratings because they are both too unscientific to be reliable. Mathematically you can’t solve a problem to an exact solution with all variables and in speed figures you have the horse’s time varying independently because of the limitations that are innately put on its ability along with other things such as pace. The track surface resistance (and it is not speed) is varying do to its geometry, surface composition, and the environmental conditions at the track’s location.

Speed Ratings leaves out the important variable of class. Therefore theoretically the 3-year average can shift dramatically if there is a class shift in the reference years that make up the rating.

Therefore should you use both or either one of them? That is a personal decision because when you bet, you are taking a financial risk in a zero sum game and it should be up to you to decide what references you need or want to use to wager your money.

[Fastracehorse]

I don’t use either Beyers speed figures or the DRF’s speed ratings because they are both too unscientific to be reliable. Mathematically you can’t solve a problem to an exact solution with all variables and in speed figures you have the horse’s time varying independently because of the limitations that are innately put on its ability along with other things such as pace. The track surface resistance (and it is not speed) is varying do to its geometry, surface composition, and the environmental conditions at the track’s location.

Speed Ratings leaves out the important variable of class. Therefore theoretically the 3-year average can shift dramatically if there is a class shift in the reference years that make up the rating.

Therefore should you use both or either one of them? That is a personal decision because when you bet, you are taking a financial risk in a zero sum game and it should be up to you to decide what references you need or want to use to wager your money.

Luckily in this game we have a tote.

And also, we have a large # of races to chose from.

Even Warren Buffett probably had a methodology that only worked in very specific conditions.

The BSF definitely has its place in this game.

fffastt

[Cangamble]

I don't like Beyers at all, they are better than cold speed ratings of course, but I make my own ratings for at least four tracks, and find that when I don't have enough info, the Speed Numbers from TSN are way better than Beyers.

[JustMissed]

I don’t use either Beyers speed figures or the DRF’s speed ratings because they are both too unscientific to be reliable. Mathematically you can’t solve a problem to an exact solution with all variables and in speed figures you have the horse’s time varying independently because of the limitations that are innately put on its ability along with other things such as pace. The track surface resistance (and it is not speed) is varying do to its geometry, surface composition, and the environmental conditions at the track’s location.

Speed Ratings leaves out the important variable of class. Therefore theoretically the 3-year average can shift dramatically if there is a class shift in the reference years that make up the rating.

Therefore should you use both or either one of them? That is a personal decision because when you bet, you are taking a financial risk in a zero sum game and it should be up to you to decide what references you need or want to use to wager your money.

I vote this one as the dumbest post ever posted on PA.

I'm sure some will have other picks but please re-read it a few times.

JM :cool:

[Pace Cap'n]

The BSF definitely has its place in this game.

fffastt

How about an adjjjusted BSF?

[wonatthewire1]

They were not in the Sports Eye. They were in the Racing Times.


spots eye used BRIS speed figs and after the DRF bought out Sports Eye for their other gambling products instead of developing their own

[rokitman]

I vote this one as the dumbest post ever posted on PA.

I'm sure some will have other picks but please re-read it a few times.

JM :cool:
I vote for this post :cool:

[Tom]

What is this ?? Point/Counterpoint all by yourself:confused:


Not he does by himself, I'd wager.

The guy is just trash.

[FlyinLate]

Not he does by himself, I'd wager.

The guy is just trash.

Agreed.

[the little guy]

I don’t use either Beyers speed figures or the DRF’s speed ratings because they are both too unscientific to be reliable. Mathematically you can’t solve a problem to an exact solution with all variables and in speed figures you have the horse’s time varying independently because of the limitations that are innately put on its ability along with other things such as pace. The track surface resistance (and it is not speed) is varying do to its geometry, surface composition, and the environmental conditions at the track’s location.

Speed Ratings leaves out the important variable of class. Therefore theoretically the 3-year average can shift dramatically if there is a class shift in the reference years that make up the rating.

Therefore should you use both or either one of them? That is a personal decision because when you bet, you are taking a financial risk in a zero sum game and it should be up to you to decide what references you need or want to use to wager your money.


This is truly funny stuff.......I gotta hand it to ya.

[Zaf]

ROR :lol:

Z

[Cratos]

Luckily in this game we have a tote.

And also, we have a large # of races to chose from.

Even Warren Buffett probably had a methodology that only worked in very specific conditions.

The BSF definitely has its place in this game.

fffastt

You are absolutely correct and that is why I said it is an individual decision to use or not use BSF or the DRF Speed Ratings.