7f Races

[Pell Mell]

7f races seem to give me more trouble than any other distance. If capping a 7f race and most of the entries have run either shorter or longer distances, which do you prefer? I usually land on a horse that has good success at 6f but I always seem to get beat by a horse that has speed at a longer distance. Do you think it's easier for a horse to cut back rather than to stretch out? I usually like to think the 6f horse will get an easy lead but someone always seems to go with it and it folds like a wet noodle. Just wondering if anyone has data on distance change in general. :confused: Thanks

[46zilzal]

I bet and lost on, by actual count, 39 seven furlong races in a row until I discovered two things; 1) the 7 furlong specialist and how their record at that distance is usually much much better than their overall record and 2) ENERGY DISTRIBUTION of successful 7 furlong horses is usually consistent at each track around a narrow % median. Once you record that race to race and get a profile, it is easy to eliminate over half the field remaining after you have eliminated the obvious ones.

There are a few track that have a profile at 7 that is so different than the rest, they are even more predictive.

Find what has worked and look for it in the horses in today's contest.

[equicom]

That question has a two-part answer!

Firstly, it is generally accepted that horses tend to do better when stepping up in distance than stepping down.

The exception, however, is with dishonest trainers. In this case, trainers will run a horse at a longer distance than the horse can naturally handle, so therefore building up a string of bad runs. Drop the horse back to a suitable distance and if he is a good natural athlete then he could get the win at massive overs (even if there are smart handicappers who are onto you, there will be enough mug money diverted away from your "sure thing" to keep it interesting).

How to work out the latter scenario? Well look for horses that are in a good position (but not necessarily leading) on the 2nd or 3rd section, but that's only a rough guide because the jockey may not even be in on the set up, so he's not trying for a good position at that point. He might be waiting for the stretch.

And one final thing... sometimes this tactic backfires on the dishonest trainer (yay!) because if the pace is very slow and the horse is allowed to stroll the first furlong or two, he could still have enough in him to make a race of the last 7 furlongs, especially if the rest of the field is weak. This is why trainers doing this usually also run the horse out of his class a bit as well.

So:

1. Horses moving up in distance by 1 furlong: very acceptable
2. Horses moving up in dist by 2 furlongs or more: caution advised but look at the history of the horse, he may have managed it before
3. Horses moving down in distance: check the trainer's stats. Good? He is probably honest. Bad? the opposite. And then, if you think he might be a little bit (or a lot) dishonest then:

a) Check for pattern in the form of dropping back in distance and winning
b) Look at horse's stats for this distance or similar
c) Look at jockey rating... if poor he may fail anyway, even on a set up
d) Look at the odds today compared to normal... bad value? That's a clue!
e) Look for signs of early speed, late failure (PP's)
f) and finally the strongest clue:

HORSE IS STEPPING DOWN IN GRADE BUT ALSO DOWN IN DISTANCE

So with any combination of the above, plus the final BIG clue, you have a formula that will find you quite a few decently priced winners, especially good for exotic bets. It won't win all the time, but you will be very pleased with how often it does!

[shanta]

2) ENERGY DISTRIBUTION of successful 7 furlong horses is usually consistent at each track around a narrow % median. Once you record that race to race and get a profile,


-1 to +4 on the e/l screen

[shanta]

There are a few track that have a profile at 7 that is so different than the rest, they are even more predictive.



Woodbine +13 or higher on e/l
Tampa +11 or higher on e/l

[46zilzal]

Woodbine +13 or higher on e/l
Tampa +11 or higher on e/l
The man keeps accurate records.

[Pell Mell]

A point I forgot to mention is that I catch a lot of winners stretching from 6f to a mile or more. The only explanation I can come up with is that there is usually less speed in a route where as the 7f races, with the mixture, has more speed in them.

[jonnielu]

A point I forgot to mention is that I catch a lot of winners stretching from 6f to a mile or more. The only explanation I can come up with is that there is usually less speed in a route where as the 7f races, with the mixture, has more speed in them.

Hey Pell,

7F - The bastard distance, take a good look at sprinters that run late, or just a little slower up front. Remember that the able speedball in an outside post will realize and possibly be in the race for more room to work. So, expect him NOT to run early.

Coming in from two turn distances, take a good look at those early runners and pacesetters. They will run early at 7f, especially from inside posts because of the long straight. They often lose at 8.5 and 9 because they go a little too fast early, 7F fits well.

7F is tough on the handicapper because it is a good training distance for all other distances as routers will tighten for both ends here, and sprinters will usually get back end work.

7F is also perfect for trainers to get a good race that looks bad on paper for any other distance too. Although, it has been explained that none of them ever do that on purpose.

jdl

[Hosshead]

Years ago I talked to Gary Stevens (at SA) about this before a 7f race he was riding "my horse".
This horse was in the # 1 post, and didn't have a lot of early speed.
I asked him about the possibility of getting boxed in early because (his horse's) lack of speed.
He told me that it was good that it was a 7f race.
He said that because horses (especially outside speed) don't usually "cross over" towards the rail until after they cross the "break" where the 7f. chute joins the main track, that gives him (Gary) just enough extra "chute distance" to get his horse going, and get him more forwardly placed behind the speed.
I believed him.
I bet him.
He Won !
I Won ! :)

[thespaah]

7f races seem to give me more trouble than any other distance. If capping a 7f race and most of the entries have run either shorter or longer distances, which do you prefer? I usually land on a horse that has good success at 6f but I always seem to get beat by a horse that has speed at a longer distance. Do you think it's easier for a horse to cut back rather than to stretch out? I usually like to think the 6f horse will get an easy lead but someone always seems to go with it and it folds like a wet noodle. Just wondering if anyone has data on distance change in general. :confused: Thanks
I look for turn backs from 1m or 8.5F going 7f. I toss horses stretching out from less than 6f going 7f. Except in the case of 2yo's going longer for the first time. My worst distance is a flat mile on dirt. Is it a long sprint or a route? Fortunately the tracks I go to don't run ths distance all that often.

[thespaah]

A point I forgot to mention is that I catch a lot of winners stretching from 6f to a mile or more. The only explanation I can come up with is that there is usually less speed in a route where as the 7f races, with the mixture, has more speed in them.yep..me too..love those stretch outs..

[Robert Fischer]

I like a horse with speed and talent that could get a mile. I don't necessarily look for a stretch out or cutback. I may be wary of a cutback from more than 8.5furlongs back to 7. I don't want a fast 6furlong horse either if I think he will weaken.

[Tom]

I agree with you guys on the distribution.
What would your comments be on this race?

The wiinner was 3 McMag.......not the best late, but he had more total energy than the best late. How do you guys work TE into the E/L distribution evaluation?

Myself, I don't go past the top 5 TE, unless it is a severley biased track.
This was Aqueduct, 10/25. Race 1. I would hide the 1,6,8 based on TE.

[Pell Mell]

Wow, you guys sure snow me under. I don't understand a thing about energy distribution. I only wanted to know if you prefer horses stretching out or cutting back in 7f races.


This kind of reminds me of discussions hunters have over the merits of different caliber guns. The bottom line is, they all kill in the right hands. :)

[john del riccio]

PM


I actually love betting 7f races, they are my favorite. Many times the public will overbet a horse with superior figs at 6f but they often look like they have been hit in the head with a brik at the 1/8 pole when they try 7f. My favorite angle is to look at a horse cutting back from a 2 turn route with solid pace figs and a few other attributes. Give me a horse that can run further than 7f over a 6f horse trying to to go 7f any day.

John

[borntoride]

I agree with the above poster regarding 7f horses that can get a mile. To me, 7f is more akin to a mile race than a sprint. I like a winning miler at this distance. Seen too many runners that excell at 6f burn out at 7f. Oftentimes, like at KEE, there are more 7f races than 6f, so trainers are somewhat forced to enter at the longer distance because of the short meet. Brilliant 6f runners can be a great bet-against at 7f.

[Tom]

Here are the results of 7 furlong races at Aqu/Bel April 2005 - Oct 2007,
by where the horse raced last out.

I broke it down by turf/dirt/and one or two turn routes.

Some interesting results.......

[Cangamble]

I'm an old school speed handicapper. I treat 7 furlongs as a specialty distance. I don't rate a 7 furlong race on a horses form unless today's distance is 7 furlongs, or the horse has no other ratable races.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

If capping a 7f race and most of the entries have run either shorter or longer distances, which do you prefer? The distance of 7f has provided me with some of my biggest paydays. I like the race distance so much that it is the first thing I look for on a card, and spend more time with the 7f races than any other.

My favorite angle is when a horse shows some speed in a race carded at 9f (1 1/8th mile) and then fades or flattens out, finishing out of the money. These horses can come back at 7f with a solid bottom in them, and often have the stamina to get the job done in the elongated sprint.

Another profitable angle is when a horse is going 7f at Saratoga after a route on the grass at Belmont.

My preference will always be the shortening up to 7f. The race is often referred to as the bastard distance, but I think it is merely misunderstood. An easy way to come to grips with it is to look at a horse's PP's and check out how he/she comes into a 7f race and the result.

I posted this perspective on the Prodigy BB in 1993 when supporting my selection of AVOID PENALTY with a ML of 30-1 at Santa Anita. He went off at odds of 101-1 and won the race, keying the biggest exacta in the history of the track of over $4,400. It prompted me to write an article titled Nine to Seven for the Cramer/Olmsted Report that Bill and Mark were kind enough to publish on the angle.

[Tom]

I remember that article!
Belated "Nice hit!" ;)

My table above shows the best performances at 7 come after a race at 9 or 10, including turf. Apparently, it has been going on formore than a few years.

[Fastracehorse]

I agree with you.

I luv fast routers that find themselves able to stalk a 7f sprint.

fffastt

[cmoore]

Horses who shorten up from a mile who have shown some early speed but tired late are my favorite ones to play when coming back at 6 or 7 furlongs..

[Hajck Hillstrom]

My table above shows the best performances at 7 come after a race at 9 or 10, including turf. In poker, when a player is holding the cards 9-5, they are referred to as the "Dolly Parton" by Vince Van Patten when doing commentary for the WPT in reference to her movie "Nine to Five." I refer to the 9-7 angle simply as.... "Overtime." ;) Make sure you are well paid with this angle. The underlay can be readily dismissed, and a healthy overlay should be embraced.

[pandy]

At some tracks, Tampa Bay is one that comes to mind, you can do very well betting turn backs from two turns, such as 8.5f to 7f, especially if the horse raced fairly close to the pace in the route.

[Cratos]

7f races seem to give me more trouble than any other distance. If capping a 7f race and most of the entries have run either shorter or longer distances, which do you prefer? I usually land on a horse that has good success at 6f but I always seem to get beat by a horse that has speed at a longer distance. Do you think it's easier for a horse to cut back rather than to stretch out? I usually like to think the 6f horse will get an easy lead but someone always seems to go with it and it folds like a wet noodle. Just wondering if anyone has data on distance change in general. :confused: Thanks

Seven furlong races appear to be an anomaly in thoroughbred racing even though it is run very frequently. I believe that the 7f race and the 1 1/4m race are the two most difficult races for a horse to run and win in North America.

However the reason for winning either one is different. The 7f race is typically won by the horse which has both speed and stamina. The 1 1/4m race is a stamina race.

In looking back at some of the very good 7f horses you will see a commonality when you view the likes of Alderbaran who ran nine times at the 7f distance while winning 5 and finish second in the other four. In each of Alderbaran 7f races (win or lose) the 6f furlong time was always run in a time less that 1:10.

The great Forego who is known for his tremendous weight toting over a distance of ground was also a very good 7f racehorse in winning 8 of his 13 attempts and never finishing worse than third.

Another good 7f racehorse was Ghostzapper and even though he ran the distance only three times, his performance in the 2004 Tom Fool was a race to remember when he stopped the timer at Belmont for 7f in 1:20 and change.

There are many more good 7f horses, but I believe the best of the best was the good doctor, Dr. Fager. The good doctor raced the 7f distance 5 times during his illustrious career and each time he was victorious including his career finale when he set a then world record for the 7f distance in 1:20 1/5 seconds while toting an incredible 139 pounds.

Therefore what is the key for handicapping a horse at the 7f race distance? Simply speed and stamina. A good 6 or 6 ½ furlong horse who kicks in a the 5f mark and began to draw away or a good miler or a 1 1/16 miler who shows speed for the distance.

[dylbert]

Angle (1): horse moving from 7f chute races at major track to 7f 2-turn race at minor track where horse has run LONGER such as 2-turn 1m-1-1/16m at major track. Beware one-turn mile or greater races! This works for horses moving from LaD or FG to DeD and can get prices.

Angle (2): horse moving from 2-turn 7f races at minor track to 2-turn 1m70yd/1-1/16m races at major track. Stretching out when horse has already been running 2-turns proves beneficial. Lawyer Ron was excellent 2-turn horse who stuck up track when he raced one-turn anywhere.

Extra juice -- Angle (1) horse moving DOWN in class or Angle (2) horse moving UP in class. My contrarian view courtesy of my Mark Cramer readings!

[cmoore]

tops sires for 6.5 to 7 furlongs over the last 3 years

http://www.breedingwinners.com/reports/TopSiresFor6AndAHalfTo7FurlongsDirt.PDF

[how cliche]

There are so many good reponses in this thread that there is not much for me to add. I'll just list a few running profiles from last out at different distances that translate well switching to 7f. The simpleton's approach, if you will.

6f to 7f "even": 4 to 5 lengths behind the leader at every call.

6.5 to 7f "z": Example, 5th 3 1/2, 4th 3 1/2, 5th 5, 4th 2.

Mile to 7f "speed and fade": speed to the final 1/4, weakened.

I wish they would build a 7f chute at GGF.

[LRL Racing]

There are horses which LOVE 7F. Usually they will come running late going 6f but have the ability to go two turns. 7F puts them closer to the pace but they have a late kick and can run right by the speed. Look for horses which show they like the distance through previous winning efforts at the distance. 7F races are one of the best betting opportunities available.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

7F races are one of the best betting opportunities available....and is there any track that cards more of them than Laurel Park? :ThmbUp:

[Wickel]

When playing 7f races, I usually land on a horse that has been showing early speed sprinting. Coming back at 7f is like an abbreviated stretch-out angle. Chances are, if one of these types is facing a lot of routers cutting back in distance or sprint stalkers, there is a greater probability of grabbing an easy lead, getting a breather, then cruising when the running starts.