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MANOWAR
01-15-2003, 12:52 PM
In the pp's, what should I be looking for that suggests that a race horse's form has been darkened?

What's the tip off?

so.cal.fan
01-15-2003, 01:15 PM
Races where a horse is obviously outclassed will "darken" form.
Wait until you have a decent horse and wait until it drops into a good spot.

GameTheory
01-15-2003, 01:44 PM
Study trainers.

Some trainers are bad bets almost every time they have a favorite go to post -- they'll stiff the favorite, and then cash on him next time. In other words, see what odds at which the trainer wins at -- if his low-priced horses don't win as they should, that is probably by design. Watch out for these horses when they come back at higher odds. (Generally talking about claimers here.)

Most other forms of "darkening" are really just forms of prepping for future races or normal form cycles. (Sprint to route and back, etc.) The most powerful evidence of an upcoming strong race is improved early speed without final time/speed figures going up much or at all (but without a dramatic drop either).

Fastracehorse
01-15-2003, 07:19 PM
Here's a few scenarios:

1) Horse runs flat at a route - but the horse is a sprinter - and then cuts back to a distance he likes.

2) Horse runs a good dirt race - but runs terrible on the lawn - then is back to dirt at an appropriate distance.

3) Horse is protected in a starter allowance - but then dropped into claiming for an unprotected score - in this way, the trainer protects the horse so that he can earn an extra check and possibly a bet when he drops him.

Most winners make sense.

Sometimes the 5th best horse may win because of a superior trip but sound fundamentals work in this game.

fffastt