Jockey habits

[Mulliganthegreat]

New here and new to handicapping, but just wondering if anyone follows jockeys regarding their typical riding style. That is, if they are a constant pace presser or front runner etc? Are there some who just always run the same way and is that an important aspect to handicapping. It seems to me that if they do this ever, it would be rather important for prediction.

[Tom]

Agree., I just did a several year study for Aqueduct to come up with a rating for a jockey's early speed tendencies, the same thing that appears in the charts of The Power of Early Speed.

[Robert Fischer]

New here and new to handicapping, but just wondering if anyone follows jockeys regarding their typical riding style. That is, if they are a constant pace presser or front runner etc? Are there some who just always run the same way and is that an important aspect to handicapping. It seems to me that if they do this ever, it would be rather important for prediction.

Tendancies/Styles
Yes you have to be able to know how a jockey will ride a horse when there are several options. You have to be able to look in the pastperformances and know if the jockey in that past race was a help or a hinderance. When you watch the replay it will confirm what you knew about the tendancies and styles. For example a cheap sprinter who lead for all calls and then lost by a nose at Arlington in a synthetic race and Mojica was up. = He was the best horse in the race! I know that with a seconds work. Today Ocampo is up on that mount. Ocampo will win. His stats aren't great but he can win wire-to-wire on the best speed horse. Then Ocampo gets injured and you have to be observant as to how he returns. Or you see a horse that won free on the lead with Dominguez, and today you have a jockey change = you have to understand Dominguez may have won that last race. Sometimes you switch from a jockey with a loose reign to a tight-reign. You knew when Pletcher took Dominguez off of Sunriver and went to Gomez that sooner or later you would get the kind of ride we saw in the Canadian International. You know as much as you can about the Jockeys. Take a day or two at a certain track and put the video and the chart side by side. Keep watching the last 3-4 furlongs and refer to the chart to see what Jockeys are battling. What did they do? Certain things should start to stand out.

An extreme example
And yes certain jocks ride a horse the same way no matter what. A while back I was in the paddock with a trainer at "smaller" track in West Virginia. The jockey was a decent jockey, but he didn't understand english. He literally could not be given jockey instructions. He wasn't going crazy over the racing form for this horse - he was simply going to ride the horse the way he knows how to ride.

[Grits]

MTG, google one name--Earlie Fires--this alone, this one man, says it all.

Everything you will ever need to know and learn about front end speed!:lol:

[46zilzal]

It is the HORSE that has the early speed, some riders just exploit it more than others. The jockey is a passenger on a Ferrari, Volvo or a Ford, and is NOT the same as the motive element beneath him/her.

[Jeff P]

It is the HORSE that has the early speed, some riders just exploit it more than others. The jockey is a passenger on a Ferrari, Volvo or a Ford, and is NOT the same as the motive element beneath him/her.In most races you can accurately break the horses out into categories... Ferrari, Chrysler Minivan, 72 Ford Pinto... Yet after digging deeper I'm convinced there are some riders who when handed the keys to a Ferrari literally can't compete (win a race) against a 72 Ford Pinto once the guy behind the wheel of that Pinto makes it clear he is determined to compete. All riders are good and bad at various aspects of the game. They all have strengths and weaknesses. Knowing their tendencies and matching that to the capabilities of the horse can be a huge difference maker.

-jp

.

[46zilzal]

As great a rider as Laffit was, his weakness was on the lawn.

STILL and forever, horses run against one another with passengers on their backs called jockeys. One can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear and a rider cannot make a horse do what it is not capable of doing.

[Tom]

Happens every day. You get a rider with poor early speed ability and replace him with one rated better and the horse run better early.

But since you do not agree with positonal running styles or jockey handicapping, you have no reason to post in this thread, since that is what we are discussing here. We conceed your theory and prefer to discuss our real results as we do not agree with you.

Thaks for sharing, but it would be preferable not to have this thread hijacked, as is your usual MO.

[Tom]

Knowing their tendencies and matching that to the capabilities of the horse can be a huge difference maker.

-jp

.

This idea has made some major changes in the way I look at early speed - the jockey ratings outlined in Klein's Early Speed book, updated to include only Aqueduct, and also a second rating, less than a length off at the first call, has been eye-opening. I am looking to do for each circuit I play - I think track specific data might be more useful than general.

[jma]

As great a rider as Laffit was, his weakness was on the lawn.

STILL and forever, horses run against one another with passengers on their backs called jockeys. One can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear and a rider cannot make a horse do what it is not capable of doing.

Do you have to post fifty times in every thread saying how that method doesn't work? I mean, some of the time it might be valid, but this site isn't actually all about you. Could you let people who have an interest in the topic just discuss it while you go take a jog, or watch some TV, or anything else? It's the only way people get to learn *anything* from those who know *something*.

[46zilzal]

Sticking to one's guns is consistency of experience in realizing the point brought to mind in the great work BLINK (Malcolm Gladwell): Once you recognize the implicit nature of something, all else is superfluous and serves only in complicating the understanding of it.

Never once said anything was wrong, just have a differing point of view. A discussion allows that you know.

[onefast99]

Westcoast jockeys are always on the engine, eastcoast jockeys may be a bit less speed happy. Different tracks may cause jocks to alter their riding style, Monmouth park is speed biased(until they mess it up in August)so in a 6f race you got to be on the engine, the Meadowlands is always a speed biased track CC Lopez guns from the gate and is always a threat on his horses. But I have to agree with 45zilzal the horse is the vehicle and I have seen many a jockey run against the horses style and lose.

[bigmack]

Sticking to one's guns is consistency of experience in realizing the point brought to mind in the great work BLINK (Malcolm Gladwell): Once you recognize the implicit nature of something, all else is superfluous and serves only in complicating the understanding of it.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, he starts with a story about The Getty in LA not knowing a statue was a fake. All the while they were extemely biased about its origins. WOW - earth shattering stuff.

That book is drivel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/books/review/16COVERBR.html

[Robert Fischer]

CC Lopez guns from the gate and is always a threat on his horses.

Oh yea. His ride on Gotcha Gold in the Salvatore Mile this year was nice.

[46zilzal]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, he starts with a story about The Getty in LA not knowing a statue was a fake. All the while they were extemely biased about its origins. WOW - earth shattering stuff.

That book is drivel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/16/books/review/16COVERBR.html
The fat man has just posted a reference which states the opposite: less is more.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/71514/page/1

"Hunches, gut feelings, intuition—these are all colloquial English for what Gigerenzer and his colleagues call "heuristics," fast and efficient cognitive shortcuts that (according to the emerging theory) can help us negotiate life, if we let them."

[Tom]

What the hell is your major malfunction????
Take your unrealated CRAP and start a new thread - this one has nothing in it to concern you.

[46zilzal]

Isn't it fun TO TRY TO BE a policeman? Having self-anointed position to pick and choose content in a discussion.

Less is more. It works.

Horses have a running style. The best riders know this and follow along with WORKING WITH THAT STYLE. The also-ran's work against the intrinsic style of the horse.

[Fastracehorse]

It is the HORSE that has the early speed, some riders just exploit it more than others. The jockey is a passenger on a Ferrari, Volvo or a Ford, and is NOT the same as the motive element beneath him/her.

But yesterday I got beat by Husbands up the rail at Woodbine. Then he just missed the finally by saving ground.

Then at Hollywood I got beat by Gomez up the wood.

Then Channing Hill won 3 yesterday at Aqu - probably up the wood.

fffastt

[TEJAS KIDD]

Welcome Mulligan


Here is my take on Jockeys
A good jockey can win on a capable horse
A bad jockey can win on a capable horse
A good jockey can lose on a capable horse
A bad jockey can lose on a capable horse
But neither a good jockey nor bad jockey can win on an incapable horse.

I think looking for positive rider switches is the key. Here are a couple of examples. If you know a rider isnt very good and the trainer convinces a better rider to ride next out or if a rider has had prior success on a horse and the trainer goes back to that rider after being unsuccessful with another rider. Of course, higher rated jockeys offer less value on the tote board.

[skate]

Do you have to post fifty times in every thread saying how that method doesn't work? I mean, some of the time it might be valid, but this site isn't actually all about you. Could you let people who have an interest in the topic just discuss it while you go take a jog, or watch some TV, or anything else? It's the only way people get to learn *anything* from those who know *something*.

since zilly has been put on the "Recall List", and

since ive not seen zilly say anything lately (ever) could you guys please stand aside and let him speak.


thanks

[Tom]

Isn't it fun TO TRY TO BE a policeman? Having self-anointed position to pick and choose content in a discussion.

Less is more. It works.

Horses have a running style. The best riders know this and follow along with WORKING WITH THAT STYLE. The also-ran's work against the intrinsic style of the horse.

The topic of the thread was picked by the original poster. We are trying to discuss that, and you are once again trying to hijack the thread. You were warned by PA about this recently - what don't you understand about it?
Start your own thread if you cannot participate like an adult and stay on topic.

[46zilzal]

Asked about riding styles. I answered.

That answer comes with the condition that no one has to accept or reject it.

Don't like it, don't agree: DON'T read it......Very easy to do.

keep off topic out of horse racing discussions.

One of the great ideas that Bradshaw stated many times, and is at the heart of the better rider's understanding, is the notion that "only the horse owns the first fraction."

At the heart of that notion is the expanded version of the same: the horse dictates the racing style NOT the rider. Learn the horse's style, work with it, not against it.

After the half you can almost tell when style horses are grossly out of position for their style in that field with that pace, and you can predict they will falter whenever forced out of their "comfort zone" best style.

[Tom]

You have said the same thing three times now. Are you done yet?
Or will you taking us back to Blink again?

[46zilzal]

The rational mind never stays put but always questions their belief system since it is a single discovery or a new variation that can require a re-working of an entire belief system. Understanding never stands still. It is challenged routinely.

When one confronts a new topic, it requires a gleaning of information in the construction of that individual's modus operandi belief system. A system under such construction requires a breadth of input so that the receiver can utilize their powers of observation in formulating their own position. Multiple source input allows this observer the option to test each position within their own sphere of understanding and to accept or reject this eclectic mix in the construct of their own newly acquired knowledge.

The objective mind realizes it take this broad input before putting each idea to the test before their position can emerge.

Views differ, inputs are needed.

[Robert Fischer]

BJ Hernandez is a really underrated jockey. He gave a lot of good rides during the Churchill meet. Had some nice prices when he got a good horse and rode a lot of bad horses about as well as possible. Anyone he rode last out could carry form forward. I would only guess that a trainer would value that type of thing.

[Pace Cap'n]

What's a "modus operandi belief system"?

[pandy]

I was just reading BLINK today, interesting book. Intuition has always helped me in handicapping and making sound bets.

[Tom]

The rational mind never stays put but always questions their belief system since it is a single discovery or a new variation that can require a re-working of an entire belief system. Understanding never stands still. It is challenged routinely.

When one confronts a new topic, it requires a gleaning of information in the construction of that individual's modus operandi belief system. A system under such construction requires a breadth of input so that the receiver can utilize their powers of observation in formulating their own position. Multiple source input allows this observer the option to test each position within their own sphere of understanding and to accept or reject this eclectic mix in the construct of their own newly acquired knowledge.

The objective mind realizes it take this broad input before putting each idea to the test before their position can emerge.

Views differ, inputs are needed.

And yet here you are, the most closed minded one on the board. You offer nothing but your opinions with no facts or data to back them up, over and over again, ad nauseum, and then change the subject when called out on it. And once again, you have hijacked this thread. Your post has nothing at all to do with the thread topic.

[TEJAS KIDD]

You offer nothing but your opinions with no facts or data to back them up.


FACT:something that actually exists; reality; truth
OPINION:a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.

Last time I checked an opinion didnt need to be backed up by data.

[Robert Fischer]

:bang:

[Dahoss9698]

Tendancies/Styles
Yes you have to be able to know how a jockey will ride a horse when there are several options. You have to be able to look in the pastperformances and know if the jockey in that past race was a help or a hinderance. When you watch the replay it will confirm what you knew about the tendancies and styles. For example a cheap sprinter who lead for all calls and then lost by a nose at Arlington in a synthetic race and Mojica was up. = He was the best horse in the race! I know that with a seconds work. Today Ocampo is up on that mount. Ocampo will win. His stats aren't great but he can win wire-to-wire on the best speed horse. Then Ocampo gets injured and you have to be observant as to how he returns. Or you see a horse that won free on the lead with Dominguez, and today you have a jockey change = you have to understand Dominguez may have won that last race. Sometimes you switch from a jockey with a loose reign to a tight-reign. You knew when Pletcher took Dominguez off of Sunriver and went to Gomez that sooner or later you would get the kind of ride we saw in the Canadian International. You know as much as you can about the Jockeys. Take a day or two at a certain track and put the video and the chart side by side. Keep watching the last 3-4 furlongs and refer to the chart to see what Jockeys are battling. What did they do? Certain things should start to stand out.

An extreme example
And yes certain jocks ride a horse the same way no matter what. A while back I was in the paddock with a trainer at "smaller" track in West Virginia. The jockey was a decent jockey, but he didn't understand english. He literally could not be given jockey instructions. He wasn't going crazy over the racing form for this horse - he was simply going to ride the horse the way he knows how to ride.

I am not trying to pick on you at all, but do you really believe some of this stuff? If a horse lost by a nose at Arlington with Rafael mojica, the same horse would have won with Ocampo, that seems foolish to me. Sure certain jocks have riding styles that they prefer. CC Lopez was mentioned in this thread, he's a definite speed rider. Garrett Gomez obviously prefers to take his horses off the pace and make one run. Ramon Dominguez and Calvin Borel have an affinity for the rail.

However these guys are "professionals" for a lack of a better word. Most of the time the jockey has little to do with a horse winning IMO. People put too much emphasis on the jockey and why he is riding for someone, etc. I do it sometimes, we all do. But I know players, who make a good living at this who don't even know who is on the horse.

Sometimes a jockey causes a horse a win and sometimes they are the reason the horse won. But more often than not, a jockey is just another person to blame for someone losing a bet.

[pandy]

Jockey styles are interesting. I was a big fan of Julie Krone. When she came back after 3 years off, a lot of people in So. Cal didn't think she could win there because of her off-the-pace style, but she was awesome. There were many days in which she'd win 2 or 3 races from off the pace--with price horses--and every other race was won by a speed horse. It goes to show you how a truly gifted rider can overcome the track bias.

[TEJAS KIDD]

When I read the Title of this thread, I though we were going to be talking about P VAL and Garret Gomez.:D

[46zilzal]

What's a "modus operandi belief system"?
The one that works for YOU. He one you synthesize from multiple inputs by what YOU learn not by what you regurgitate.

[Robert Fischer]

I am not trying to pick on you at all, but do you really believe some of this stuff? If a horse lost by a nose at Arlington with Rafael mojica, the same horse would have won with Ocampo, that seems foolish to me.

You have to know the jockeys to understand. Mojica was a horrible jockey and especially poor at driving a horse to the wire. Ocampo was a 2nd tier average jockey, but he showed some ability wire to wire in synthetic sprints. (i believe he suffered a recent injury). I am reading your reply more as if you believe that the jockeys have little influence, than if you are arguing that Mojica was talented with a horse on the lead ?

The jockeys are up on these horses back and they can ask them for run , they can hold them back, they direct them, they can whip them and they can waive the whip or swing the horse into another horse.
These guys are human and the cream rises to the top.

[Dahoss9698]

You have to know the jockeys to understand. Mojica was a horrible jockey and especially poor at driving a horse to the wire. Ocampo was a 2nd tier average jockey, but he showed some ability wire to wire in synthetic sprints. (i believe he suffered a recent injury). I am reading your reply more as if you believe that the jockeys have little influence, than if you are arguing that Mojica was talented with a horse on the lead ?

The jockeys are up on these horses back and they can ask them for run , they can hold them back, they direct them, they can whip them and they can waive the whip or swing the horse into another horse.
These guys are human and the cream rises to the top.

I know Rafael mojica and I don't know if I'd say he is horrible. Ocampo is a name I saw a few times in the few races I saw at Arlington and i believe he is new to this country. But I think it is foolish to think if a horse lost by a nose, that another jockey, ANY other jockey could have gotten the horse to the wire a nose better. It just seems like splitting hairs to me.

I realize what a jockey is and what they do. I also realize that most of the top jocks in the game are there because they have the most talent. But, as with anything there are other factors. Look at Fernando Jara, he is certainly NOT a top jockey, yet he rode for a lot of the top outfits last year. Certainly in this game, who you know and behind the scene stuff goes on and to think the "cream rises to the top" all of the time is a bit naive.

Like I said earlier, IMO far too much emphasis and praise and or blame is given to the jockey. The horse is what does the work and blaming jockey's is a crutch too many gamblers use.

[Robert Fischer]

blaming jockey's is a crutch too many gamblers use.

I am talking about winning , and how knowing jockeys help me win. Not complaining about jockeys.

If someone does something opposite their nature then that is time to complain. Sure Gomez gave a horrible ride to Hard Spun in the Belmont or Sunriver in the Canadian INt. That was expected. Gomez doesn't run well with no other pace in a distance race. He doesnt know what the hell to do. Look how he butchered the ride on trippis storm. You can't have a gripe with that. Those horrible rides go hand in hand with the great rides he gave Sunriver at Arlington or in the Man o' War at Belmont.
If Dominguez has a speed horse on a first on turf with no opposing early speed and he unexplainably holds the horse back -then you have a gripe!

[Dahoss9698]

I am talking about winning , and how knowing jockeys help me win. Not complaining about jockeys.

If someone does something opposite their nature then that is time to complain. Sure Gomez gave a horrible ride to Hard Spun in the Belmont or Sunriver in the Canadian INt. That was expected. Gomez doesn't run well with no other pace in a distance race. He doesnt know what the hell to do. Look how he butchered the ride on trippis storm. You can't have a gripe with that. Those horrible rides go hand in hand with the great rides he gave Sunriver at Arlington or in the Man o' War at Belmont.
If Dominguez has a speed horse on a first on turf with no opposing early speed and he unexplainably holds the horse back -then you have a gripe!

You and I have a far different outlook on importance of jockey's and that is fine. We also have a far different approach as to what is a great ride and what is a horrible one.

What was so great about the rides Gomez gave to Sunriver in the Million or Man O War? Didn't the finish of those races have more to do with a lack of pace in the race than anything Gomez did? When did Gomez ride Trippi's Storm?

[Dahoss9698]

I am talking about winning , and how knowing jockeys help me win. Not complaining about jockeys.

If someone does something opposite their nature then that is time to complain. Sure Gomez gave a horrible ride to Hard Spun in the Belmont or Sunriver in the Canadian INt. That was expected. Gomez doesn't run well with no other pace in a distance race. He doesnt know what the hell to do. Look how he butchered the ride on trippis storm. You can't have a gripe with that. Those horrible rides go hand in hand with the great rides he gave Sunriver at Arlington or in the Man o' War at Belmont.
If Dominguez has a speed horse on a first on turf with no opposing early speed and he unexplainably holds the horse back -then you have a gripe!

I just went back and read this again. You contradict yourself throughout the entire post. You say Gomez doesn't ride well with no other pace in a distance race. Yet claim he gave "great rides" in the Million and Man O' War. Races that were paceless distance races. Which one is it?

[Tom]

FACT:something that actually exists; reality; truth
OPINION:a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.

Last time I checked an opinion didnt need to be backed up by data.

Then one shouldn't pawn off opinions as facts.

[Robert Fischer]

I just went back and read this again. You contradict yourself throughout the entire post. You say Gomez doesn't ride well with no other pace in a distance race. Yet claim he gave "great rides" in the Million and Man O' War. Races that were paceless distance races. Which one is it?

well, in the man o' war johnny murtagh forced a quality pace with his foriegn horse. He had a horse who was competitive on paper come up and make the drive for home very long.
In the arlington race the turf was a lilttle soft and was murder to a speed horse and and Gomez rightly went with a moderate pace. The turf an important factor that day. I don't even remember what Sunriver finished in the Arlington (4th? 5th?) but it was better than if he had taken the horse out on fast fractions. The turf fit his style that day, and in the man o war he didn't flinch in the face of a pace ambush which appeared to set the race up for the pumped up doctor dino. Doctor Dino should have romped but Sunriver was full of run and for his part, Gomez did a fine job.

[Dahoss9698]

well, in the man o' war johnny murtagh forced a quality pace with his foriegn horse. He had a horse who was competitive on paper come up and make the drive for home very long.
In the arlington race the turf was a lilttle soft and was murder to a speed horse and and Gomez rightly went with a moderate pace. The turf an important factor that day. I don't even remember what Sunriver finished in the Arlington (4th? 5th?) but it was better than if he had taken the horse out on fast fractions. The turf fit his style that day, and in the man o war he didn't flinch in the face of a pace ambush which appeared to set the race up for the pumped up doctor dino. Doctor Dino should have romped but Sunriver was full of run and for his part, Gomez did a fine job.

The Murtagh horse was inexplicably near the lead that day and never seemed right before the race. I was at Belmont that day and he looked awful on the track and even worse when warming up. They crawled early and flew home late. Pace ambush? They went 49 and 1 to the half on a firm turf.

There was a moderate pace in the Million because there was no speed in the race. Why would Gomez set fast fractions if there is no speed in the field. These are bad examples IMO. Sunriver was one of the luckiest horses in training this year because he somehow found 4 consecutive paceless races. When in a race with some early lick, we saw where he finished at Woodbine. The rides in all of these races had more to do with race dynamic than anything else.

[Mulliganthegreat]

I just figure that if the horses were let out of the gate without Jockeys they would be all over the place... maybe they would race together a little as they do in the fields, but im sure it would be somewhat chaotic a race. So jockeys must do something. And if so, then where does that "something" stop?

I was just thinking that if jockeys were creatures of habit, or some of them were anyway, and they prefer to control a horse in their prefered fashion - regardless of what they may be told to do by a trainer - then if I see a horse who likes to run wire to wire and it just so happenes to have a jockey who ive decided has a tendency to run wire to wire... is this a case where a handicapper might see something that most other betters don't and get good value? Do you guys do this?

I really have little idea what im talking about. I'm reading Brad Free's Handicapping 101 as a start, and thats about all I know thus far. But as I read I begin daydreaming off on tangents about interesting potential betting/handicapping angles and I thought I'd bounce this one off more experienced people.

I have read all the previous posts in this thread and I must say i find it interesting people can put such little value on the jockey. But then again, I am really so new to this that I can't rightfully have an educated opnion on this. But this is all part of my learning process I guess.

[Pell Mell]

It has often been said that more races are won or lost coming out of the gate than anywhere else on the track and I really believe this. I also used to believe that when a race was over that any jock in the race would have won with the winner of the race but since the advent of replays being available I have changed my mind. Just in the last couple of months I have been the victim of so many bad rides I want to tear my hair out. I'm not trying to play "Poor Me" but so much stuff is obvious. For instance, the horse breaks good and for the first 1/8 mi. is in good position and then the jock stands up and takes the horse back to the rear. Maybe he's following orders but I don't think a horse in any kind of condition stops after an 1/8. Then there are the jocks that are always 6 wide turning for home and by the time the field straightens he's 10 lengths back.

There are some jocks that are great out of the gate and for this reason alone win more than their fair share. Some will say that these jocks are great on the front end but I think they are so good out in front is, because of their great gate ability, that's where they often find themselves to be.

By the way, finally, on Sunday I got a really great ride on the #2 in the 5th at WO. Montpellier found so many holes it made the field look like swiss cheese. Take a look to see a great ride.;)

[Tom]

I also see a lot of jocks get closers or mid pack horses out very quickly, then ease in to postion, letting the front runners push hard to get there. That quick surge would seem to be less taxing than breaking 3,4,5 and having to gun to get out in front.

[46zilzal]

EVERYTHING at the time of the Belmont, said and later it has been proven, Hard Spun, not his rider, NEVER won over 9 furlongs. The rider having a horse with known distance limits didn't fight his style and let him run as far as he could.

The horse didn't get the distance not the rider.

[Robert Fischer]

Sunriver was one of the luckiest horses in training this year because he somehow found 4 consecutive paceless races. When in a race with some early lick, we saw where he finished at Woodbine. The rides in all of these races had more to do with race dynamic than anything else.


"Marsh Side set slow fractions of 25.18 seconds, 50.89, and 1:15.60 while being pressed by Sunriver in the mile and a half turf event." -NTRA.COM


CANADIAN INTL.
VISUAL EVIDENCE

Sunriver Leads
sunriver breaks alertly and his natural speed puts him in front
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/8162/sun1hl4.jpg

Sunriver Leads but Gomez has hold
well in front and gomez starts to take hold
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/2848/sun2kq9.jpg


THE JOCKEY CHOSE 5 WIDE OVER THE LEAD.
FLUSHES A FEW LENGTHS DOWN THE TOILET.
http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/3668/sundumum0.jpg

Sunriver finished 6th, 2.5 lengths back of the winner.

[Robert Fischer]

visual #2

BELMONT HARD SPUN

FEET ON THE DASH HOLD EN 'EM BACK
WHY NOT HOLD THE HIGH-CRUISER OUTTA THA GATE?
http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/6695/holdspun1mk0.jpg

AT LEAST HAMMERLOCKING OUT OF THE GATE WORKED RIGHT?
THE RAIL LANE OPENS UP AND HE CAN LET THIS HIGH-CRUISER
RUN A NATURAL RACE RIGHT?
http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/3691/holdlockspunrailnorw7.jpg

tHIS IS REALLY THE SAME TURN!
WHY LET YOUR SPECIAL HIGH-CRUISER CRUISE WHEN U CAN TURN DOWN
THE RAIL AND GO 5 WIDE?
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/4365/holdspunyessameturnjj2.jpg

RATHER THAN CRUISE TO AN EASY LEAD/
LETS BOX IN ROBBIE ALBARADO AND CURLIN.
WHO CARES IF WE OFFSET HARD SPUN'S ONLY ADVANTAGE OF HIGH CRUISING SPEED?
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/888/hammerlockspunqq8.jpg

"When it was time for sprinting, he just didn't have the turn of foot the other two or three had," said Hard Spun's jockey Garrett Gomez.- NOSHIT

Hard Spun almost certainly does not win this race even with a perfect ride, but it doesn't excuse the horrible ride, nor does it dim this example of jockey control.

[Dahoss9698]

EVERYTHING at the time of the Belmont, said and later it has been proven, Hard Spun, not his rider, NEVER won over 9 furlongs. The rider having a horse with known distance limits didn't fight his style and let him run as far as he could.

The horse didn't get the distance not the rider.

Did you actually see this race? I try and not blame jockeys and really Hard Spun probably would not have won anyway. But Gomez did not let him run as far as he could. He fought him and had him under a hammerlock early. It was obvious, at least to me that Hard Spun ran best on the engine and on the lead. Being choked early on a soft pace is the complete opposite of this. Again, did you actually see the race?

[Dahoss9698]

"Marsh Side set slow fractions of 25.18 seconds, 50.89, and 1:15.60 while being pressed by Sunriver in the mile and a half turf event." -NTRA.COM


CANADIAN INTL.
VISUAL EVIDENCE

Sunriver Leads
sunriver breaks alertly and his natural speed puts him in front
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/8162/sun1hl4.jpg

Sunriver Leads but Gomez has hold
well in front and gomez starts to take hold
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/2848/sun2kq9.jpg


THE JOCKEY CHOSE 5 WIDE OVER THE LEAD.
FLUSHES A FEW LENGTHS DOWN THE TOILET.
http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/3668/sundumum0.jpg

Sunriver finished 6th, 2.5 lengths back of the winner.


Again, we have different views on things and you seem to want to have an excuse when a horse you like doesn't win. I've seen it on other boards. I'm not an excuse guy. Personally I think you worry too much about the jockey. Basically if a horse runs like you think he should, the jockey gave a great ride. Any other way and it's a horrible ride. Seems unfair to me.

[Show Me the Wire]

Did it occur to anyone that sometimes jocks ride their mounts to beat other horses? Block in another horse so your horse can get first run or possibly your horse doesn't have a chance to win but you are not going to let so and so win due to outside reasons or just personal dislike.

Explains some of the questionable rides.

[shanta]

visual #2

BELMONT HARD SPUN

FEET ON THE DASH HOLD EN 'EM BACK
WHY NOT HOLD THE HIGH-CRUISER OUTTA THA GATE?
http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/6695/holdspun1mk0.jpg

AT LEAST HAMMERLOCKING OUT OF THE GATE WORKED RIGHT?
THE RAIL LANE OPENS UP AND HE CAN LET THIS HIGH-CRUISER
RUN A NATURAL RACE RIGHT?
http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/3691/holdlockspunrailnorw7.jpg

tHIS IS REALLY THE SAME TURN!
WHY LET YOUR SPECIAL HIGH-CRUISER CRUISE WHEN U CAN TURN DOWN
THE RAIL AND GO 5 WIDE?
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/4365/holdspunyessameturnjj2.jpg

RATHER THAN CRUISE TO AN EASY LEAD/
LETS BOX IN ROBBIE ALBARADO AND CURLIN.
WHO CARES IF WE OFFSET HARD SPUN'S ONLY ADVANTAGE OF HIGH CRUISING SPEED?
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/888/hammerlockspunqq8.jpg

"When it was time for sprinting, he just didn't have the turn of foot the other two or three had," said Hard Spun's jockey Garrett Gomez.- NOSHIT

Hard Spun almost certainly does not win this race even with a perfect ride, but it doesn't excuse the horrible ride, nor does it dim this example of jockey control.

Great shots Robert :ThmbUp:
While the horse runs the race a jock can sure help screw things up can't he(she)?

[Robert Fischer]

Again, we have different views on things and you seem to want to have an excuse when a horse you like doesn't win. I've seen it on other boards. I'm not an excuse guy. Personally I think you worry too much about the jockey. Basically if a horse runs like you think he should, the jockey gave a great ride. Any other way and it's a horrible ride. Seems unfair to me.

Don't worry about me I have a winning expectation. I just loaded up 6 pictures. Take a look. Maybe you will see some examples of jockey habits. It could possibly be evident that their are races where jockeys control a horse and aren't helpless passengers on Ferraris and Saabs. :D
If no one that enters this thread sees any jockey habits, or jockey influence from the examples, then apparently I did a lousy example or my perception is way off.
I agree to disagree ;) this thread was headed for some interesting tangents before we started talking about jockeys and habits.
46 to thread

[46zilzal]

Did you actually see this race? I try and not blame jockeys and really Hard Spun probably would not have won anyway. But Gomez did not let him run as far as he could. He fought him and had him under a hammerlock early. It was obvious, at least to me that Hard Spun ran best on the engine and on the lead. Being choked early on a soft pace is the complete opposite of this. Again, did you actually see the race?
About 50 times frame to frame and the HORSE told me he was having trouble getting the distance NOT the rider, who, by the way is only a passenger. As the distances grew, this one's percent median rose: a sure sign of continual exposure of distance limitations in a fit three year old.

[Tom]

Did it occur to anyone that sometimes jocks ride their mounts to beat other horses? Block in another horse so your horse can get first run or possibly your horse doesn't have a chance to win but you are not going to let so and so win due to outside reasons or just personal dislike.

Explains some of the questionable rides.

Angel Cordero Jr.

[Dahoss9698]

Don't worry about me I have a winning expectation. I just loaded up 6 pictures. Take a look. Maybe you will see some examples of jockey habits. It could possibly be evident that their are races where jockeys control a horse and aren't helpless passengers on Ferraris and Saabs. :D
If no one that enters this thread sees any jockey habits, or jockey influence from the examples, then apparently I did a lousy example or my perception is way off.
I agree to disagree ;) this thread was headed for some interesting tangents before we started talking about jockeys and habits.
46 to thread

I'm not worrying about you, I welcome your money in the pools. I never said jockeys don't have habits. I explained a few that do have some habits. But I also think people, yourself bigtime, try and blame something when they lose and jockeys seem to be the most popular.

I never said jockeys do nothing. Stop putting words in my mouth. I just think people put too much emphasis on them. Good luck with your winning expectation.

[Dahoss9698]

About 50 times frame to frame and the HORSE told me he was having trouble getting the distance NOT the rider, who, by the way is only a passenger. As the distances grew, this one's percent median rose: a sure sign of continual exposure of distance limitations in a fit three year old.

Frankly I could care less about your graphs they mean nothing to me. I trust my eyes. Since you apparently speak horse, did Hard Spun have anything else interesting to say? I agree, for the most part the jocks are passengers, but in this instant, Gomez chose to take a horse back who runs well on the lead. Did it cost him the win? Probably not. But it did happen.

[46zilzal]

Frankly I could care less about your graphs they mean nothing to me. I trust my eyes.
Horses scream out to tell you these things all the time, as Bob n John did before he ran the Belmont. His pattern was even worse (strangely THE SAME PATTERN) and where did he run? no where......Don't make this contention with idle commentary. It is there all the time if one looks.

Eyes are about as SUBJECTIVE as they come. A constantly and repeatedly applied standard yardstick is much closer to objectivity.

You call these numbers a graph? We must speak different dialects.

[Dahoss9698]

Horses scream out to tell you these things all the time, as Bob n John did before he ran the Belmont. His pattern was even worse (strangely THE SAME PATTERN) and where did he run? no where......Don't make this contention with idle commentary. It is there all the time if one looks.

Eyes are about as SUBJECTIVE as they come. A constantly and repeatedly applied standard yardstick is much closer to objectivity.

You call these numbers a graph? We must speak different dialects.

In a game where our opinion is rewarded and since I wager based on MY opinion I'll trust my eyes.

[Dahoss9698]

You call these numbers a graph? We must speak different dialects.

You know what I mean.

[46zilzal]

Having utilized the scientific method all my adult life, and having discovered and reproduced this pattern over and over, it is amazing how many people, after seeing it in action again and again and again, deny it's validity.

In a more subtle application of going off form even Street Sense showed a steady climb upward that last several before finishing out in the B.C. Classic. Slow steady rise in percent median last several.

Moving out of the comfort zone, this one was signaling to anyone who looked. The horse, not the rider, was changing.

[Greyfox]

Horses, like humans, each bring individual strengths to the table.
Some are genetically equipped to sprint; others inherit bone and cardiovascular processing systems designed for longer distances. Each brings a unique nervous system that determines at what distances optimum performances will be achieved. Add to those genetic predispositions the fact that equines are herd creatures. As such they have millions of years of
genetic make-up influencing their predisposition to take a particular place in front of, within, or towards the rear of the herd.
In time, different animals will, as they learn to race, show their preferences for herd position. Jockeys and trainers who refuse to recognize those preferences may get a win here or there but in the long run will not get optimal performance and more victorys from the steed.
The very best jockeys are also very good positional handicappers.
Other jocks are just pinheads who try to take every charge to the front or
anchors who slow every horse down so that it can't win.
At the top tracks, the top jocks, usually don't fight the horses natural running disposition unless they've just got the horse in a race for a "blowout."

[Semipro]

Angel Cordero Jr.Bailey Hard Rock Ten

[Fastracehorse]

I understand what U are saying but I think U are understating the importance of the jock.

I evaluate the horse and make most my decisions off of this - but when I get beat it is often by a superior ride, not horse.

I get alot of satisfaction when I can win a race based on evaluating the animal - and I do not hesititate with 'C' flight jocks - however, a good riding strategy is a formative factor as well.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Luv the video breakdowns.

fffastt