Ability-X

[chrisl]

Hello: I saw this for sale on E-bay. Has anybody have any experience with this.
Thank you Chrisl

[Tom]

I read the description - a word of warning. It says the formual for the rating will never be revealed. So what are you buying. A book on how to use something you can not calulate on your own? Sounds like a sales pitch.
If one were to buy the numbers, which is apparently the only way you are going to get them, would you not expect to get the instruction as part of the price?
Save you money.....someone is looking to hook you.

[Maxspa]

Chris,
Go over to the Selection area and you will find posts written by jonnielu.
This gentleman is the creator of these ratings. He also has other posts on this board as well. Jon also has a web site and you'll be able to research this topic further. His web site is www.horseplayeru.com.
Maxspa

[jonnielu]

I read the description - a word of warning. It says the formual for the rating will never be revealed. So what are you buying. A book on how to use something you can not calulate on your own? Sounds like a sales pitch.
If one were to buy the numbers, which is apparently the only way you are going to get them, would you not expect to get the instruction as part of the price?
Save you money.....someone is looking to hook you.

Tom,

What about the age old question???

"If someone had something that was actually worth money at the windows, why would they sell it?"

Then there is, if I were willing to sell, "how the ratings are made", how much would I charge for the culmination of my 30 years of experience and knowledge, when I can continue to cash it in everyday myself?

I can tell you how to make a living at a racetrack for the rest of your life with just a program in your hand, in fifteen minutes. If I put that up on Ebay, what would you bid? Maybe 10 bucks out of curiousity. At that point, why should I.

Ability-X is the same thing, maybe I could sell "how to make the ratings" to 10,000 people for 20 bucks, but, I would be underselling by a great deal. I could sell the ratings themselves for $10 a month to the same $10,000 people, and everyone would be getting good value, without me losing anything that is valuable, or giving away anything that has value.

It works better that way, when someone is selling something of value.

jdl

[judd]

i find ability-x to be very interesting

[Tom]

If one cannot make them on one's own, what good is buying a book on how to use them. Unless one is willing to make a committment to buy them from now on. In which case, my original question still valid - if I were to committ to a long term subscription, I would expect the instructions on how to use them as part of the package. It has nothing to do with how good or bad the number are - what does it matter if you don't have acces to them?

This is just like that handicapping book we bashed a few weeks ago where the guy showed example after example of how to use his ratings, but never bothered to explain what they were or how they were calculated.

I was born at night, but not last night.

[Tom]

i find ability-x to be very interesting

So you are buying them regularly?

[Maxspa]

Tom,
Below is part of the e-bay advertisement.I haven't received the E-book! I've been keeping track of the scratches and results for 3 race cards and without the additonal information, I cannot believe they are strong enough to play on thir own.
Maxspa


"These are the only ratings strong enough to play on their own. They are that much stronger with consideration of just a few basic horse racing principles.

Know what the answers are with "Using Ability-X Ratings". Get your copy of this Ebook today.

Using Ability-X ratings is about how to add simple handicapping criteria to use the ratings well and to learn from them. How these ratings are constructed will never be made available.

Your copy of, Using Ability- X Ratings comes with 15 days of Ability-X ratings included."

[Tom]

Thanks Max...I stoped reading at
How these ratings are constructed will never be made available.

OK, for $15, and 15 days worth of numbers, it is not a rip off. How many tracks covered?

[Show Me the Wire]

Now I understand jonnielou's vehement attitude about ratings in the what is class thread. Good luck with your product and I hope the birds miss.

[Tom]

Saw that one coming too! ;)

[Tom Barrister]

Tom,

What about the age old question???

"If someone had something that was actually worth money at the windows, why would they sell it?"

Then there is, if I were willing to sell, "how the ratings are made", how much would I charge for the culmination of my 30 years of experience and knowledge, when I can continue to cash it in everyday myself?

I can tell you how to make a living at a racetrack for the rest of your life with just a program in your hand, in fifteen minutes. If I put that up on Ebay, what would you bid? Maybe 10 bucks out of curiousity. At that point, why should I.

Ability-X is the same thing, maybe I could sell "how to make the ratings" to 10,000 people for 20 bucks, but, I would be underselling by a great deal. I could sell the ratings themselves for $10 a month to the same $10,000 people, and everyone would be getting good value, without me losing anything that is valuable, or giving away anything that has value.

It works better that way, when someone is selling something of value.

jdl

I can tell you in three seconds how to make a living at the racetrack for the rest of your life, too: get a job at the racetrack.

Or perhaps hold Handicapping "Semesters" at various tracks and hope that enough people pay for it to make it worthwhile.

Do you honestly believe that giving/selling something to 10,000 horseplayers won't deflate the odds?

What makes your ratings better than the other hundreds and thousands of ratings which can't produce a profit on their own? Do you make your own variants or otherwise use information not available to the general public?

[Maxspa]

Tom,
One track per day! it started with Churchill Downs and then Calder ratings were sent!
Gulfstream is his big project with ability ratings, physicality information and a daily summary of handicapping strategies etc.
This is all discussed on his web site www.horseplayeru.com.
Maxspa

[Overlay]

Do you honestly believe that giving/selling something to 10,000 horseplayers won't deflate the odds?

Your comment highlights the importance of coming at handicapping from the standpoint of not confining yourself to just one horse to be bet at any odds, but assessing the winning chances of multiple horses (or, at the very least, of the horse you plan to bet on), and then wagering based on the presence of value.

[jonnielu]

I can tell you in three seconds how to make a living at the racetrack for the rest of your life, too: get a job at the racetrack.

Or perhaps hold Handicapping "Semesters" at various tracks and hope that enough people pay for it to make it worthwhile.

Do you honestly believe that giving/selling something to 10,000 horseplayers won't deflate the odds?

Well, 10,000 subscribers might be a little ambitious, but there are many tracks. It would be interesting to see what would deflate odds other then the public overbetting favorites. And, since they are always doing that, it does allow for extra room on other contenders.

What makes your ratings better than the other hundreds and thousands of ratings which can't produce a profit on their own?

Mine are an accurate reflection of ability, others aren't. Take Beyers for example, flawed from the start. But, who cares when you can blame it on the track.

Do you make your own variants or otherwise use information not available to the general public?

Does something vary? My ratings are on this board from Keeneland to Churchill to Calder to Delaware to Monmouth, variance is a myth. But, don't take my word for it, I don't believe in complexity either. Take a good look at everything that I have posted in the selection thread, and see how much variance there is.

jdl

[Tom Barrister]

I didn't say anything about "variance". I asked if you make your own variants, as CJ does for his pace program, and as some people here do for their own homegrown programs. If all you're doing is manipulating the same data available to the public, then it's very unlikely that you're going to come up with anything profitable. Just about everything that's available to the public. and which uses the standard Equibase data, has been beaten to death. Generally, the seller has to add something unique to make whatever is being offered potentially profitable.

Assuming that whatever it is that you're offering is actually profitable right now, if enough subscribers pay for your service, what do you suppose will happen to the odds on the horses rated at or near the top of the field in each race? Those odds will go down, and eventually, they'll go down far enough that betting on them will be unprofitable. It won't take 10,000 of them and won't take 1,000. Nor does it matter if you offer one track or 30 tracks. There will be enough greedy people or gamblers whose craving of action is insatiable, and as a group they'll manage to play every top-rated horse at every track running, day and night---just as they do with the top Beyers, Thorograph, Ragozin, BRIS Prime Power rating, K-rating, J-rating, PF-rating, and whatever other handy power rating with a good reputation is available---until it isn't profitable anymore.

[Maxspa]

All,
I received the e-book that explains the use of the Ability X ratings. The book is fifteen pages and briefly discusses the nuances of handicapping with the ratings. Without going into the specifics as the e-book is copyrighted, IMHO there will be a learning curve using them. Jon, the rating originator, has no problem finding the winning gems that exist: Horse comparisons, layoffs, types of speed etc. but the rookie will have to gain valuable experience to use them effectively with money on the line.
My suggestion to those of you that want to try this program is to sign up for the Gulfstream meet and learn on a day to day basis with Professor Jon.
He definitely has handicapping knowledge and understanding to share with you. IMHO, his guidance will be critical for you to be successful with the ratings.
Maxspa

[jonnielu]

I didn't say anything about "variance". I asked if you make your own variants, as CJ does for his pace program, and as some people here do for their own homegrown programs. If all you're doing is manipulating the same data available to the public, then it's very unlikely that you're going to come up with anything profitable. Just about everything that's available to the public. and which uses the standard Equibase data, has been beaten to death. Generally, the seller has to add something unique to make whatever is being offered potentially profitable.

Tom, That is saying that the public understands horseracing. :eek:

The unique thing is accuracy. Accuracy is profitable.

Assuming that whatever it is that you're offering is actually profitable right now, if enough subscribers pay for your service, what do you suppose will happen to the odds on the horses rated at or near the top of the field in each race? Those odds will go down, and eventually, they'll go down far enough that betting on them will be unprofitable. It won't take 10,000 of them and won't take 1,000. Nor does it matter if you offer one track or 30 tracks. There will be enough greedy people or gamblers whose craving of action is insatiable, and as a group they'll manage to play every top-rated horse at every track running, day and night---just as they do with the top Beyers, Thorograph, Ragozin, BRIS Prime Power rating, K-rating, J-rating, PF-rating, and whatever other handy power rating with a good reputation is available---until it isn't profitable anymore.

That's a point, and the main reason that I won't reveal how the ratings are made. After awhile the same 5% of successful players will learn enough from my ratings that they will understand why they work. I figure that they will keep it to themselves the same way they keep their current methods to themselves now.

The other 95% won't even think about it, the same way that they don't think about how many times the favorite loses, or that the average mutual paid is still $10.40. Or, what is the difference between dirt and grass... really?

But, they will know that when I have a first time starter rated above 150, they had better not leave him out of the exotics. They won't be better horseplayers, but they will cash more frequently.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I won't make how to make the ratings available, because overall the ratings as I supply them are a good replacement for past performances and this will be a competing publication. Once you get used to them the same way that you are used to gauging PP's, you will see a race from a more accurate and consistent perspective. Then use some PP info to bolster that view.



Exacta Magic, is a systematic method of play that I put together from my own acquired knowledge of the ratings, what they mean, and what they show.

The ratings have taught me a great deal about horseracing, and revealed that I was more an expert at past performances then I was at what will likely happen today. Was.

They will do the same thing for anyone.

It is a way of using the ratings in a live mode while you also learn from what is happening results-wise. It shows you where the consistent effect of ability lies in horseracing and allows you to put it to use live as you become more and more tuned to it. As you see the effect of the ratings and how to evaluate them, you can grow the systematic Exacta Magic into a viable and accurate method of identifying the competitive group in any race. Without losing the one that you can't cover from PP's.

jdl

[jonnielu]

All,
I received the e-book that explains the use of the Ability X ratings. The book is fifteen pages and briefly discusses the nuances of handicapping with the ratings. Without going into the specifics as the e-book is copyrighted, IMHO there will be a learning curve using them. Jon, the rating originator, has no problem finding the winning gems that exist: Horse comparisons, layoffs, types of speed etc. but the rookie will have to gain valuable experience to use them effectively with money on the line.
My suggestion to those of you that want to try this program is to sign up for the Gulfstream meet and learn on a day to day basis with Professor Jon.
He definitely has handicapping knowledge and understanding to share with you. IMHO, his guidance will be critical for you to be successful with the ratings.
Maxspa

From "Using Ability-X Ratings":

As you work with Ability-X ratings, and recap the days results to see how the results are in line with the ratings, you will begin to get a better understanding of the up-coming race through your understanding of what the ratings are telling you.
For example, you may see by results that a race with 4 horses, close in their respective ratings is won more frequently by the longer odds horse then it is by the shorter odds horse. And, that which one will win is a tough call to make when ability is fairly equal. Perhaps, one of the group can be eliminated from consideration by negative "form", but that still leaves 3 having relatively equal ability.

Here, the ratings can direct you to 2 sound betting decisions, depending on your own makeup as a player. The first to consider is the conservative route of passing. You can not really go wrong with this. Or, if you are the kind of player that doesn't mind taking a shot, as long as you figure it to be a reasonable shot, and you understand that it is a shot. You may decide to take a reasonable shot on the longer odds horse here.

Either way, you understand going in that you have a 3 horse race here, and you understand that the chances for winning are fairly equal. No need to seriously question why your horse may have lost or switch your outlook because of it. You also know that the result is not due to some voodoo from the track maintenance crew, or your mis-calculation of the pace, or that the jockey didn't have his ears tucked into his helmet the right way.

If you were to make a betting decision in such a race, you would have a good idea of your risk, you might bet on the speedy horse, or the one that you feel has the best jockey, or the longest odds, but the results will not change your mind about betting on ability in general, because the 4 horse group pointed out to you by Ability-X ratings will cover most of the board, consistently.

I have a recent example of this from GP on Feb. 8th, 2008:

1st - 6.5fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

341 3 98 3
476 1 97 30
340 6 96 12
274 2 95 2.5
360 5 95 4
403 8 95 8
320 7 93 6
286 9 92 20
286 4 92 6


There are three relatively equal and low rated horses here, with #9 and #4 being tied in both rating and early speed.

The #9 is highlighted in red because this chart is from my Ability-X - Stickouts service. #9 sticks out in relation to the favorite on the overall rating, and the 20-1 odds. The four horses highlighted in various shades of blue are the top four ML.

Without looking at past performances, we can assume that the favorite #2 is favored because of a very good effort last, and that #9 must have past performances that look negative, while the actual run was quite similar to the favorite #2, same with the #4. The three horses are relatively equal in ability, with a wide separation in odds to win.

Different handicappers may see this race in several differing ways while looking at it through the limited scope of form past performances. But, Ability-X ratings show it to be competitive between a group of only three horses. Reason enough for the conservative player to pass.

The favorite, #2, has an advantage in post position and is rated just a little better at short odds. Being the favorite, and likely to look good in the form, this horse will probably be overbet. The player that goes with the majority opinion may find this a good situation for a bet to win.

The exotic player, might put the three horses here into an exacta and trifecta, figuring that the three horse finish is a lock. But, any handicapper can readily see that these are the three competitors in this race when looking at Ability-X ratings. Without regard to individual style, betting decisions would be based on more meaningful information, when Ability-X ratings are considered.

# Horse Win Place Show
9 Up 'n Up 150.60 35.60 14.80
4 Ruth's Mick 9.00 5.20
6 Creme de La Cat 7.80 - $1 Exacta $526.40 9-4

Because of the limits of past performances, it will always be difficult to single one out based only on past performance information. Difficult, and inconsistent on a day to day basis. Every horseplayer should understand this reality as well as the racing secretary does.

Equality in ability, breeds chaos.

Ability-X ratings will point this out to you, where the lessons of evaluating "form" can only tell you to prefer good "form" to bad "form". Good "form" is generally a horse that ran close to the front in last, while bad "form" is generally a horse that ran an identical race close to last place in it's last. Same performance, just different positions, but, "form" will never show the equality, Ability-X does.

With consideration of Ability-X for today's race, both equalities and inequalities become evident. The ratings will show the equality of the past performances in a way that "form" will not, applying that to the circumstances today will show any inequalities for today's race. This is the race that you may be betting your money on.

jdl

[socantra]

Are you running late on your January commercial, or early on your February commercial?

Your advertising on PA is appreciated.

[jonnielu]

Are you running late on your January commercial, or early on your February commercial?

Your advertising on PA is appreciated.

Well, this race was such a fine example that Ability-X ratings are easy to follow that I was adding it to "Using Ability-X Ratings" this morning and while I was doing that, I thought this would be a good spot to hang the point of the addition.

I don't figure to get much advertising value out of it, and I'm surprised that anybody reads this dusty old thread anyway. But, I did want to show an example of the simplicity of Ability-X, especially on this old thread.

jdl

[Kelso]

MaxSpa, Judd, anyone else?

GP is about a month-and-a-half into its meet. How is the professor doing? Is he going to cover his $50K guarantee?

JoLu ... when are your ratings distributed each day?

Thank you, all.

[jonnielu]

MaxSpa, Judd, anyone else?

GP is about a month-and-a-half into its meet. How is the professor doing? Is he going to cover his $50K guarantee?

Ability-X -Gulfstream Park 2/02/2008 Saturday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+. 1st - 8fD # POST ErlSpd / ML

193 1 102 8
215 5 102 3
181 3 92 2
250 4 92 12
225 2 91 4
209 6 91 6
229 7 91 6

3 Poovey 4.80 3.00 2.80


2nd - 8f Turf # POST ErlSpd / ML

210 8 101 20
111 2 101 3
135 7 98 6
110 3 93 6
104 1 93 4
101 4 92 20
196 5 89 15
95 6 83 1.6

6 With Essence 3.40 2.40 2.10

$2 Daily Double $8.40 3-6




3rd - 6.5fD # POST ErlSpd / ML

280 6 101 3
268 5 98 1.8
293 2 94 6
310 7 94 8
314 1 93 10
230 3 0 8
179 4 0 4


5 B B Frank 4.00 2.40 2.20

$2 Daily Double $8.40 6-5

$1 Pick 3 $9.60 3-6-5


4th - 8.5fTurf # POST ErlSpd / ML

165 1 97 10
166 8 96 12
110 7 91 6
121 3 86 3
116 6 86 2.5
161 2 83 15
153 5 81 5
106 4 80 4

7 Reata's Vixen 12.60 6.80 4.80

$2 Daily Double $56.00 7-5

$1 Pick 3 $111.80 5-7-5


5th - 6.5fD# POST ErlSpd / ML

244 5 97 4
241 6 95 1.6
256 2 95 3
291 7 93 6
260 4 92 6
277 3 85 20
296 1 85 8

5 Informed Decision 7.60 3.60 2.80
6 J Z Warrior 3.20 2.40


$2 Daily Double $56.00 7-5 $1 Pick 3 $111.80 5-7-5
$1 Exacta $11.50 5-6

6th - 6.5fD # POST ErlSpd / ML

311 7 102 2.5
213 5 101 3
254 3 101 20
311 1 100 20
253 4 98 6
220 6 95 1.8
254 2 91 6

2 Eaton's Gift 9.60 5.00 3.40
3 Surrealdeal 24.80 6.20
6 Wincat 2.80 / 5 - Silver Edition

$2 Daily Double $44.20 5-2 $1 Pick 3 $162.00 7-5-2
$1 Exacta $123.10 2-3 $2 Trifecta $909.80 2-3-6 $1 Supr $1,199.10 2-3-6-5


7th - 7fD # POST ErlSpd / ML

192 2 99 5
197 5 97 10
161 6 96 4
188 1A 96 2
184 8 95 20
162 3 93 6
217 7 91 20
179 4 89 4

2 Ling Ling Qi 9.80 4.60 3.00
4 Referee 2.80 2.40
1A Larrys Revenge 4.00

$2 Daily Double $77.80 2-2 $1 Pick 3 $137.70 5-2-2
$1 Exacta $14.40 2-4
$2 Trifecta $97.80 2-4-1

8th - 9fD # POST ErlSpd / ML

83 3 100 12
94 7 97 12
64 11 96 5
60 9 96 6
51 2 93 4
171 1 92 20
91 10 92 12
108 8 91 10
102 6 89 10
99 5 89 3.5
94 4 88 8

2 Juicy Point 9.00 4.60 3.60

$2 Daily Double $59.40 2-2 $1 Pick 3 $193.10 2-2-2

9th - 9fD # POST ErlSpd / ML

75 7 91 10
35 4 91 2.5
70 6 90 5
155 3 90 20
129 8 89 5
168 5 89 4
261 9 86 6
182 2 83 6

2 Spring At Last 14.00 5.40 4.80
5 A. P. Arrow 4.40 3.80

$2 Daily Double $90.20 2-2 $1 Pick 3 $315.10 2-2-2 $1 Exacta $37.60 2-5





10th - 9fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML 118 5 94 6
184 7 93 10
70 1 93 15
62 9 91 4
106 4 90 12
76 8 90 3
106 2 88 10
28 10 88 12
63 3 88 8
91 6 87 20
89 11 86 6

9 Stratostar 6.00 3.60 3.00
8 Chestermite 3.80 3.00
5 Red Alert 4.60

$1 Pick 3 $196.80 2-2-9
$1 Pick 4 $1,019.50 2-2-2-9
$2 Pick 6 $640.20 5-2-2-2-2-9 (5 Correct)
$2 Pick 6 $126,847.80 5-2-2-2-2-9 (6 Correct)
$2 Daily Double $68.00 2-9 $1 Exacta $10.10 9-8







Exacta MagicBet=92U - Ret=378U

8 Exactas Won



JoLu ... when are your ratings distributed each day?

Thank you, all.


My subscribers are a bit on the quiet side, the chart above is my Ability-X Stickouts, they come highlighted with those horses that stickout. Red sticks out quite a bit, orange sticks out a little, and blue is the favorite. The favorite sticks out in the absence of any other stickout horse and anyone can see what sticks out and why.

I really didn't expect to cover the guarantee with one day of stickouts, but it is satisfying to see it done this way. I got a lot of ridicule for also saying that it might require a $1,000 bank.

jdl

[Kelso]

I really didn't expect to cover the guarantee with one day of stickouts, but it is satisfying to see it done this way. I got a lot of ridicule for also saying that it might require a $1,000 bank.



Thank you. Impressive report.

With a $1K bankroll, how much do you require your students to bet on each race (win/exacta/other?) ... or what sort of betting pattern do they have to follow ... in order to qualify for the $50K guarantee? And, again, when are your numbers distributed each day?

[jonnielu]

Thank you. Impressive report.

With a $1K bankroll, how much do you require your students to bet on each race (win/exacta/other?) ... or what sort of betting pattern do they have to follow ... in order to qualify for the $50K guarantee? And, again, when are your numbers distributed each day?

The guarantee was about Ability-X as an indicator, not individual betting decisions. This one day of Stickouts is an example of how many betting styles can be well supported by an accurate rating. The only betting strategy that I recommend to anyone is to be conservative, and Ability-X supports that well also. I believe that sound money management comes from a reliable measure of opportunity. Each individual needs to develop skill for the betting decision along the lines of his/her own makeup and according to what they want from the game.

Before I saw your post here, I was looking to post this day of Stickouts on the "Aternative Methods of Handicapping" thread where I recieved the most extensive ridicule because a big segment of the ridicule was about the idea that big money could be made at a racetrack with small money.

Ability-X ratings are now sent out in the early evening for the next day, Stickouts are sent out usually by 10am in the morning for that day.

jdl