Thanksgiving 4 From Churchill

[bellsbendboy]

Hope T'giving is a good one for everyone as we battle through what appears a very cut and dried sequence.

7) When the condition book came out, this race was simply carded as long (one mile and up) so to discard Winter Forest on the basis of distance would not be prudent. Forestry 975K filly debuted going six panels but FG does not offer longer sprints. Assmussen chestnut bulleted into that race but drew the fence and was even thruout at 8-5. Put on the shelf after the sealed course debacle she has worked very well for this and is the one to beat... but in order to clear the heat we are adding another half a dozen. In post position order Time flies and somethinginthe way who come off runnerup efforts, CLEAR THINKING who took big money in last behind run and hide favorite, APACHE PLUME who "Shug" could not get a handle on but Carroll very clever and this one figures, firster Palm Princess and homer Matchless Moment.

8

Class is the answer to most of these types although five panels with the rial up and give in the ground can wreck havoc. Two deep COWBOY who fits and Smoke who shows twelve stakes in twenty outs.

FALLS CITY

Thinking Huffman gave WAY too much credit to 6-5 morning line Panty Raid giving five pounds to the speed and am not certain that TESSA BLUE willl not end up favored. Average winning Beyer 102 and Awesome Again filly should get there and none of the others have shown that ability yet. Brothers filly has improved a ton when stretched out as her breeding suggests...long gone under hall of famer Smith

10

While not a free square AVENSTOKE lays all over these and if he runs back to his last; another that wins well. A half to REPENT and monster race horse King Ruckus Miller charge could not contain Phipps 4yo cross state but worked back extremely quickly and need only a good voyage from SXB to score here. Call it 4,6,7,8,9,10,11 / 1,10 / 6 / 6 Rushed for time. Thanks for the kind words. Do not know why the three blind mice harass me but am told two have little handicapping acumen and the other has a pound more ego than game. Who knows, who cares. Good cappin .BBB Play here tomorrow before traveling.

[Tee]

Has the potential to be a yawner, unless Kettleoneup stirs things a bit.

[Tee]

How bout Faith's Magic(#4) here in the finale - fresh back off the bench?

I don't see too much pace in here so Xela(#8) might have a shot as well.

[Tee]

1/16 horse made the favorite - we shall see.

[Tee]

Ummm forget that Xela stuff. :)

[rrpic6]

BBB and Tee combined to hit the Pick 3 in races 9 thru 11 for 1,300...not bad guys


RR

[bellsbendboy]

Tough to string four winners on small tickets but not hitting yesterdays sequence a bit more than frustrating. Ending single single for the second time this meet, seemed prudent, but in the twenty twenty vision hindsight provides, was a fatal flaw in our play.

9

Our opinion was more than strong late in this sequence so we spread here, foolishly looking to bend the ticket and inject value. Originally we were going four deep and would have cleared the race there but....as it was we went seven long and ALL our horses finished in the top seven spots earning us a free happy meal at Mickie Dees. B. J. wins it on the reride, for Rusty paying a generous $14.20. Awesome Again homebred was not going to be a maiden for long and, as noted, took a ton of money in her last. Firster Palm Princess was off at a big number and finished a better than it will look fourth. A cappin concept concerns two in here coming off runnerups efforts, Time flies and Somethingintheway were off at 8-5 and 9-2 yesterday after being 35-1 and 80-1 in their last. Horizontal players are good at tossing horses and this angle is often a good one. Alive, at least for now.

8

After taking our trusty highlighter (yellow) and highlighting the conditions we find only TWO fit. Starting with the rail horse, as we always do, COWBOY HARDWARE ($29.60) was a snug condition fit and would have been 9-5 if the race came off the turf. Since being taken by Goldsmith 'Cowboy has been beaten by msw Junior College twice, msw Off Duty twice, msw Straight Line, the talented Monkey Hill and the total freak Fabulous Strike! The question was would he turf? A quick analysis showed that in his only turf effort he showed little but competent cappers always employ due diligence and a little homework here paid off. In his only turf start ( January 1, 2006 at Tampa) 'Cowboy drew the fence and was off last. With the rail at 22 feet he had no chance from there but finished quick. Why not turf again? There are not that many opportunities for sprinters and he earned over $150K the last two years. Enough prattle, he is a talented closer in a field that had a no chance runoff and three need the lead types on a surface that they would not like. We added 'SMOKE and that is where our ship began to take on water.

FALLS CITY

Perhaps the toughest race to handicap is just, that a small field that is weighted. We could not envision a scenario where TESSA BLUE was not well in front early but after breaking funny she never got a breather and when they went under the finish line for the first time Calvin's filly KETTLEUP would have been 2-1 instead of a remarkable ($17.60)!! As we posted Panty Raid was weighted too high and the average winning Beyer was 102. While the use of speed figures is a bit overblown they often provide historical significance and playing a horse that cannot run par is seldom good business. Without endorsing Beyers, our question became; could 'Kettle run par? On the surface no, but bending Beyer is and has been a pretty lucrative practice for us. Beyers do not incorporate ground loss or weight carried and in the May race at Pimilico 'Kettle carried 124, blew both turns and Beyered 96!!!! Clearly with a ground saving voyage and under 118 she COULD run par. Beyer did not drop the ball; we did, and our chance for a $10K ticket was toast.

Nightcap

We posted, in a pick four or two ago, that objectivity is a handicappers trump card and we ignored that basic tenet in this race. A shame we were not still alive in the pick four as nothing makes a handicapper remember like a tough beat. We did not decide to single AVENSTOKE from reading yesterdays DRF; we decided to single him two weeks ago when the condition book came out!! True enough, off the paper he looked tons the best with only League of Nation and Faith's magic having any chance at all. The former is a one for a million ridgling (one nut) and is too well bred to cut and the latter has been off since being tagged in July and would need to improve a bunch. Would he?

'Faith ran twice here at two with modest success then after being off two months was entered for 62,500 at Gulstream in his turf debut. Boom, he wins and Goldsmith claims him giving him to Pletcher. Two months go by before he starts again but runs a big second this class (although restricted to 3yo's) and then shows up here derby week facing older with a no chance rail. Nevertheless he runs a good third, followed by two very troubled trips before a trainer change and a drop to a tag with bandages added. No takers.

Off since, Goldsmith gives him to Talley who immediately gelds him, freshens him, works him well into this, puts Robby up and with the rail up, sends. AVENSTOKE looks like a winner but at the three eighths it becomes clear that the speed will hold and 'Faith returns $22 for those with the "faith". The four comes back ten large for a buck and features four horses who are very possible winners. Undaunted we will post later with a couple of graded heats and a pair of optionals. BBB