Wagering on Races

[HUSKER55]

I am starting this thread in hopes all of us can become better bettors. I have problems in this area. If I think I am right and the odds are good I will go crazy and if I don't think I have the "lock", well .....I play the place and show pools or just move on.

I was reading a book on the topic and the author stated I should create my own odds line and it got me wondering. How many create their own odds line? How many use the morning line? How many consider "if this race were run 100 times" type of scenerio when they wager? How often do you "bet against the winner"? Do you think that is wise?

Any tips or advise?

I, for one, am grateful for any guidence offered.

Thanks :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like to guess at what % of the current race if ran 100 times the horse would win. then convert that to my odds. Having several horses that are low odds (less than 3-1) on the tote bums me out for the race! My % depends on negatives of the horse or race situation, as well as PP factors.

[TEJAS KIDD]

.....I play the place and show pools or just move on.

I
Thanks :)

If you don't have a strong opinion, then moving on is the thing to do. Here's a hold em analogy.
If you have 4/9 off suit, would you play the hand?


Go to the track with an investment mindset.
Think of WPS betting as MUTUAL FUNDS
and multi combo exotics as PENNY STOCKS.

You want to invest a majority of your money in the Mutual Funds to guarantee a small profit. With the smaller portion of your bankroll, take a shot at the high risk/high return investments.

[Overlay]

I definitely favor the creation of a full-field fair-odds line, and any way of doing it is worth the effort, whether the "if this race were run 100 times" approach, or through the use of performance statistics (my preference, since it provides me a higher degree of precision, greater race-to-race consistency, and the added confidence to back a horse other than the favorite to win, rather than playing only place or show, or passing the race altogether).

[jonnielu]

I am starting this thread in hopes all of us can become better bettors. I have problems in this area. If I think I am right and the odds are good I will go crazy and if I don't think I have the "lock", well .....I play the place and show pools or just move on.

It all depends on how often you actually have the "lock" when you think that you do. If that were half of the time, or better, there is no reason to "go crazy" on a race as if it might be your last opportunity. To do so would be operating from "feeling lucky", as opposed to going with a sound decision based on sound criteria.

If you only have the "lock" 2 times in ten, you need to add some effective criteria to your handicapping methods. Starting with, what indicates that you should pass the eight losers?

If you do well with the place and show bets in races where you don't have a "lock", you are doing something right there, take an objective look at what you can polish up there too.

I was reading a book on the topic and the author stated I should create my own odds line and it got me wondering. How many create their own odds line? How many use the morning line? How many consider "if this race were run 100 times" type of scenerio when they wager? How often do you "bet against the winner"? Do you think that is wise?

Any tips or advise?

I, for one, am grateful for any guidence offered.

Thanks :)

I have always found the ML to be fairly accurate and consistent. Sometimes the trackman can tip you off to something that you just aren't going to see. Like when a foriegn shipper or first time starter gets put down as the 3-1 favorite. You have to wonder why, knowing that 3-1 is not a strong favorite.

Then you might see an ML where the favorite is 3-1, second is 4-1, third is 5-1, fourth is 6-1. Probably, a weak field, so you could say that the rest of the field is actually 6-1 too. The first four probably have better looking PP's, but does any have a real advantage?

The one with the best looking PP's will be overbet by the public, but, does that horse have a real advantage for winning? If not, the better bet would be with the horse that does have a real advantage. Your handicapping must show the way there.

jdl