Eliminating non contenders from Win

[douglasw32]

So I have a homegrown software (and I have to agree with a previous post by PA in another thread, the selling game is not for me) having said that.

I still use the info and after it has ranked the contenders (and anything could be used for this..like Bris Power ratingm the DRF consensus, the NY Post, etc, etc)

So you have a ranking in order...

obvious eliminations:

on pace/running style disadvantages would be two or more NEED TO LEAD TO WIN runners in Routes or Turf.

In sprints a single "S" deep closer with no major duel predicted to be in front of him/her.

So that narrows a few....

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANYMORE TRIED AND TRUE TOSS's they ware willing to share.


Oh and a third.... ANY HORSE GOING OFF AT LESS THAN 2-1

[douglasw32]

Or the opposite...


Is there something that MOVES A CONTENDER UP !

Like a recent 5F Work is one that comes to mind...

[douglasw32]

A NEED TO LEAD TO WIN Early runner, in an outside Post with a short run to the first turn and other early runners to the inside...

OUT

[grahors]

E or EP runner that did NOT have a good last race and the pace of the race was slower than he/she has done well at before.

[shanta]

negative class drop by trainer who just claimed 1st or 2nd back

[dutchboy]

These are horses to keep rather than eliminate in a non maiden race:

1. 20-1 ML or less
2. A race within the last 400 days
3. Add the last 3 bris or other speed fig's together and only keep the best 6 horses.
4. The above should win about 80% of races

Or you could just use the 5-6 horses with the lowest odds. Either morning line or actual odds. This should also win about 80% of all races.

This method applies to only trying to reduce the field to find the win horse

[Robert Fischer]

horses that have no heart

a jockey that has no talent

a horse with horrible form (im talking some of the hags they drag out for the Aqueduct winter meeting) AND has horrible late pace figures

also I like to specifically watch all the replays of the horses who had a clear lead and then lost , runnin 2nd in their last race. Once in a blue moon I will see where the horse had a problem - either an injury or a breathing problem , and then if they wheel him back anyway he cant win and he is one of the top 3 betting choices of the public

can't share anymore guys:D

[Overlay]

You might also check out this thread from last year:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=27726&page=1

[stu]

How about eliminating all turf runners ridden by 7-pound and 10-pound bugs?

I can't recall it being worth considering until they mature to the 5-pound allowance.

[andicap]

I havent made any money yet using the HTR database but it has taught me one very important thing.

There are very few absolutes about non-contenders. I have come up with winning (Plus ROI) scenarios with many types of poor handicapping factor, be it a jockey/trainer with a terrible rating, or a horse in apparent poor form or "outclassed," etc.

My favorite is eliminate horses dropping in class after a win. That's in a lot of handicapping books or online tutorials.
(This is different than the Shanta angle BTW)
Yes, it's a guideline, BUT some trainers do this all the time! The claiming game is a giant poker table. Maybe a trainer will want to get rid of horse still in decent condition because he wants to make room in his barn for fresh talent and the horse in condition has already more than made a profit. There are several scenarios when you can bet a horse dropping in price after a top effort. True these horses are usually overbet but you might lose a lot of bets going against them. Sometimes it pays to sit on your hands with these races.