Formula $2500-$8000

[timtam]

I picked up a daily racing form yesterday and saw some guy is

advertising how he has a formula to turn $2500 into $8000 in just 20 days.

The price is $200 and there are no other details. I could turn $8000 into

less than $2500 in a shorter period of time. I just can't believe some of

the ads that people actually take out in these papers. If he had a formula

that worked would he ever sell it ?

[Maxspa]

Tim Tam,
I check the DRF classified ads every day! It is apparent to me that any one with money can post an ad. I would think that some kind of standard should be met before an an item is accepted. Wouldn't some kind of criteria upgrade the credibility of the DRF?
Maxspa

[JustRalph]

Wouldn't some kind of criteria upgrade the credibility of the DRF?


I don't think mags or rags care..........if you got the money.......they will print it

[Vigors]

......and from what I've been told, here in another column the last 2 day's,
that their very own DRF handicapper's don't do better then a
negitive 0.80......if that's true, then their standard's CAN'T be very
high..................and as from what I understand reading those
comment's, selling a WINNING system is the EXCEPTION to their
rule's and guideline's.

.

[PaceAdvantage]

......and from what I've been told, here in another column the last 2 day's,
that their very own DRF handicapper's don't do better then a
negitive 0.80......Huh? How do you come to this stat?

[equicom]

If he had a formula that worked would he ever sell it?

Yes. Because any formula that you create, you have to spend time and money playing it. It's much better if other people are spending their time and money, because then you can sit back on the beach and sip piña coladas all day (not that I do that!).

Seriously, the thing is that anyone who develops a system usually has to be persuaded that it is more profitable to sell it than to play it. I know I had to have my arm twisted before deciding to put my own product up for public consumption.

But if he sells that product indiscriminately and without limit, then while it may be profitable in the short term, as it gains popularity (and if it works, then it will become popular) it will rapidly begin to become unprofitable because that popularity will undermine the returns to the extent that even if the formula manages to consistently pick winners (excluding a 100% success rate), they will not return enough to cover the losers.

I call this "The law of cyclic disparity" (if there's a law already with that name, I guess we can call it "Carroll's law of cyclic disparity"). This law states that in any totalizator based market where a system is used, the returns will diminish proportionate to the number of people using the system. As the players of the system realize that they are not making a profit, they stop using it, the popularity falls and the profitability increases. Thus the system will enjoy waves of profitability that come and go for those who stick with it, but the majority of players will end up losing because of the prevailing "follow the herd" mentality.

That's one of the things I'm trying to avoid with BetBlaster. Ironically, the protection we're trying to provide is one thing that seems to be putting some people off. They just don't understand the consequences of an open slather approach.

Now, as for how the DRF "experts" manage to only return 0.80, the reason is that they have to make a selection for every race. If they were allowed to pick and choose which races they play like the rest of us, they'd probably do a little better. But how do you determine if they are really experts? Does DRF require them to have a degree in Handicapping 101? (BTW how many of you would show up for class?)

[Vigors]

........This is where that stat came from :


11-15-2007, 04:23 PM #2
Tom Barrister

Probably in the 25-28% range. ROI would be around 0.75 to 0.80.

.

[Vigors]

11-15-2007, 01:16 PM #1
Rexdale You

DRF Handicappers

To all interested participants.

Has their ever been a survey of drf handicappers { must be over a 100 ]

Would be interesting to know what software the majority use.If any.

There success rate has to be less than 25%.

ROI would be Approx...?????

[kenwoodallpromos]

Any seller ever been sued for failure of what they sell?

[TEJAS KIDD]

Now, as for how the DRF "experts" manage to only return 0.80, the reason is that they have to make a selection for every race. If they were allowed to pick and choose which races they play like the rest of us, they'd probably do a little better. But how do you determine if they are really experts? Does DRF require them to have a degree in Handicapping 101? (BTW how many of you would show up for class?)


You did point out that each handicapper has to make a selection in every race.
There is something that most people don't know.
They have to make these selections well in advance to make their print deadline.
After the entries are drawn at the racetrack (at the latest, two days before the race), a proof is made for the DRF handicappers. I've seen these guys in action. They scan the form like Evelyn Wood trying to make their deadlines. Noone could ever have a positive ROI handicapping in this manner and noone should ever invest a cent on those selections.

[equicom]

They scan the form like Evelyn Wood trying to make their deadlines. Noone could ever have a positive ROI handicapping in this manner and noone should ever invest a cent on those selections.

:D I agree. Plus every mug from Vancouver to Miami will be playing them. Good though, because we get overs sometimes. Hate it when they pick the same ones I do though!

[Murph]

Any seller ever been sued for failure of what they sell?
You may have missed the little disclaimer statement! :D

Murph

[PaceAdvantage]

........This is where that stat came from :


11-15-2007, 04:23 PM #2
Tom Barrister

Probably in the 25-28% range. ROI would be around 0.75 to 0.80.

.Is this even close to accurate?

[Tom Barrister]

Is this even close to accurate?

Vigors missed the word "probably".

It's an estimate, and it's an overall view of all DRF handicappers at all tracks. Some do better than others, some worse. Also, a handicapper at a track with mostly 5 and 6 horse fields will have a higher win percentage than one at a track with mostly 10 and 12 horse fields. I'd imagine that 0.80 is close to correct for the group as a whole. The overall might be a big higher, but I'd be surprised if it got as high as 0.85.

[PaceAdvantage]

Vigors missed the word "probably".

It's an estimate, and it's an overall view of all DRF handicappers at all tracks. Some do better than others, some worse. Also, a handicapper at a track with mostly 5 and 6 horse fields will have a higher win percentage than one at a track with mostly 10 and 12 horse fields. I'd imagine that 0.80 is close to correct for the group as a whole. The overall might be a big higher, but I'd be surprised if it got as high as 0.85.Maybe I should ask the question again. Your reply here smacks of serious uncertainty. Are you pulling these numbers out of thin air? Or do you actually keep track of their performances. I haven't looked at a DRF selection page in a while, but I think they don't keep track of their own stats....

[Tom Barrister]

My apologies. I have no clue whatsoever what win percentage and ROI the DRF handicappers have. I was voicing an opinion, something I'll be sure to never do again in this forum.

[riskman]

I picked up a daily racing form yesterday and saw some guy is

advertising how he has a formula to turn $2500 into $8000 in just 20 days.

The price is $200 and there are no other details. I could turn $8000 into

less than $2500 in a shorter period of time. I just can't believe some of

the ads that people actually take out in these papers. If he had a formula

that worked would he ever sell it ?

Sure--thats how he is turning 2500 into 8000 in 20 days.

[PaceAdvantage]

My apologies. I have no clue whatsoever what win percentage and ROI the DRF handicappers have. I was voicing an opinion, something I'll be sure to never do again in this forum.Actually, you were putting numbers out. Numbers usually have a basis in fact. Another poster took your opinion as fact (vigors). All I'm trying to do is establish where these numbers came from. Why is that too much to ask without getting the ol' "i'll be sure never to do THAT again" response?