nobeyerspls
11-15-2007, 10:44 AM
I haven't posted in this section for a while but I need to make up for redboarding some angle plays recently by posting some picks before the race. This is also for Advancedcapper's benefit to show how to cite a reason for a pick when one applies:
Calder (don't play turf selections if off)
race 1 - Both Bullarium (brief freshening) and Gianormous (shortening up) can beat Victory at Shiloh, the consensus pick. Box the exacta and use them in horizontals.
race 2 - Heavy Date, the consensus best bet, is a reasonable favorite but #2 Orinoquia 8-1 (freshened filly) and #5 Barbara's Attitude 4-1 can run with her. Box all three in a tri and key #2 in the exactas. Use all three in horizontals.
race 3 - #2 Barley Sugar 20-1 is among a few in here coming off a layoff and working well on the main track. Winless in 19 turf tries is a negative but he did hit the board on the grass 7 times. The 1,6,7 should run well here so use all four in the horizontals.
race 4 - #6 Louisiana Lee 6-1 is a second time lifetime start with blinkers on. Bet win place if 7/2 or above and single him in horizontals at any price.
race 5 - #3 Stoico 15-1 is the angle horse but #5 Ho Ho Ho could be uncontested speed
race 6 - #7 Paradise Light 20-1 is the freshened filly play. There are a few negatives to get past, i.e. coming off a zero beyer effort, beat only 2 of the 24 horses she faced lifetime, and lost her 3 races by a combined 61 lengths.
Aqueduct
race 2 - Siver Paradise, the consensus pick, looks unbeatable on paper but they're going to run the race on the track so I'll box #3 Hello Natasha 20-1(freshened filly) and #9 Jeanine Joy 10-1 with her. Use all 3 in horizontals and don't look at the #3's two zero beyer races.
race 3 - Bailero, the consensus best bet, looks tough on a repeat but I'll take #9 Lieutenant Danz to beat him. Exacta box and both in horizontals.
race 4 - #8 Supah Wise 20-1 is a second lifetime start so I'll bet him straight and box him with #7 and the #1 entry in exactas and tris, using all three in horizontals.
race 5 - I stink at this category but I need the race to complete the pick 4. I'll use #2 Ocean Forest and #11 Tsuris.
The two zero beyer fillies noted above are guaranteed to record an infinitely higher figure.
Calder (don't play turf selections if off)
race 1 - Both Bullarium (brief freshening) and Gianormous (shortening up) can beat Victory at Shiloh, the consensus pick. Box the exacta and use them in horizontals.
race 2 - Heavy Date, the consensus best bet, is a reasonable favorite but #2 Orinoquia 8-1 (freshened filly) and #5 Barbara's Attitude 4-1 can run with her. Box all three in a tri and key #2 in the exactas. Use all three in horizontals.
race 3 - #2 Barley Sugar 20-1 is among a few in here coming off a layoff and working well on the main track. Winless in 19 turf tries is a negative but he did hit the board on the grass 7 times. The 1,6,7 should run well here so use all four in the horizontals.
race 4 - #6 Louisiana Lee 6-1 is a second time lifetime start with blinkers on. Bet win place if 7/2 or above and single him in horizontals at any price.
race 5 - #3 Stoico 15-1 is the angle horse but #5 Ho Ho Ho could be uncontested speed
race 6 - #7 Paradise Light 20-1 is the freshened filly play. There are a few negatives to get past, i.e. coming off a zero beyer effort, beat only 2 of the 24 horses she faced lifetime, and lost her 3 races by a combined 61 lengths.
Aqueduct
race 2 - Siver Paradise, the consensus pick, looks unbeatable on paper but they're going to run the race on the track so I'll box #3 Hello Natasha 20-1(freshened filly) and #9 Jeanine Joy 10-1 with her. Use all 3 in horizontals and don't look at the #3's two zero beyer races.
race 3 - Bailero, the consensus best bet, looks tough on a repeat but I'll take #9 Lieutenant Danz to beat him. Exacta box and both in horizontals.
race 4 - #8 Supah Wise 20-1 is a second lifetime start so I'll bet him straight and box him with #7 and the #1 entry in exactas and tris, using all three in horizontals.
race 5 - I stink at this category but I need the race to complete the pick 4. I'll use #2 Ocean Forest and #11 Tsuris.
The two zero beyer fillies noted above are guaranteed to record an infinitely higher figure.