New Sartin style proposed

[46zilzal]

After years of compartmentalizing each horse into the set styles which the Sartin method promotes (E, E/P, P, S/P, S or Late), I have had to realize that there is another category, heretofore not described within the methodology: the POSITIONAL FRONT RUNNER (PFR). I have discovered this type make up less than 10% of all runners, but overall that is significant enough to consider them.

Ever watch Olympic cycling? There is a contest called, I believe, the two man pursuit. It is a multi-lap race, but is only timed during the last lap. The first part of the race is all about attaining an advantageous POSITION, and riders will often come to a complete halt (balancing at a stand still) so that position can be maintained, then, without a warning will "take off." Essentially the two play 'cat and mouse' then they race. Add that element of surprise, and the positional guy has the advantage.

Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons used to get frustrated the way Nashua ran: just enough. That is what these types do: run "just enough" to stay ahead of the field no matter the pace playing 'cat and mouse' with the field. These are NOT the need to lead types which show that limitation as early pace challenges get quicker. It appears to be very strong herd instinct or akin to the standard bred phenomenon of being "sucked along."

Whatever the reasons behind this type, they throw a monkey wrench into pace evaluations because their energy distribution styles are not consistent enough, nor their total energies high enough, to evaluate then rationally in comparison with those types that run a more reproducible style.

Only problem with these types, when in form, is that they are in the money so often that they have to be considered, IN SPITE of what the computer program projects.

[Tom]

How does that differ from a need the lead horse?

[46zilzal]

How does that differ from a need the lead horse?
The need to lead gets a higher and higher % median as the early pace gets faster. These guys somehow do not: in running "just enough" their % medians don't rise that dramatically as they are running "just enough" THROUGHOUT the contest, not just the early stages.

It is almost as though they have NO INTRINSIC racing style of their own but simply "copy" the style of whatever overall pace is thrown at them.

Rare birds (with enough to gut out whatever is thrown at them), but distinct ones.

[shanta]

The Hat has taught and described your 2 man setup. He calls it the "clear-clear" and there is a whole detailed analysis of what it is and what happens when it occurs.

And yes no computer software can recognize or deal with it as it IS 100% positional issue.

Early horses who quickly clear the field and then remain ahead setting various velocities who have the ability to slow races down. Here is something that helps "see" them. Check the break position of these guys on the next 10 that run. See if there are any clues there.

Key is that these rare birds are "boss" horses and rarely will they be challenged by others in the early stages of the running. It's like the other combatants "KNOW" not to mess with the guy where in other races these quick to the lead types get exposed and run over immediately.

This "boss" can be identified(not 100% of course) from the past performances and not a computer screen. It's all herd stuff.

A few players are rumored to be using this "hole" in software and have created spot play types for these races.

Best of luck

[andicap]

How about an example or two of some current runners?

Good stuff guys.

[46zilzal]

How about an example or two of some current runners?

Good stuff guys.
HARD SPUN and I am searching my records for more.

[classhandicapper]

I've always felt that most front runners have the ability to relax on the front end and change their typical energy distribution when given the chance. The problem is that they don't often find fields where they can do that and keep the lead because most fields are fairly contentious.

[DJofSD]

I would posit that Cigar was a positional front runner.

[46zilzal]

I would posit that Cigar was a positional front runner.
Very good chance of it, although he was more ratable.
I would have put Creme Fraiche up for this award.

[46zilzal]

I've always felt that most front runners have the ability to relax on the front end and change their typical energy distribution when given the chance. The problem is that they don't often find fields where they can do that and keep the lead because most fields are fairly contentious.
Most of these are "exposed" as "need to leads" whenever the early pace quickens.

[bigmack]

they throw a monkey wrench into pace evaluations because their energy distribution styles are not consistent enough, nor their total energies high enough, to evaluate then rationally in comparison with those types that run a more reproducible style.
For all the needless verbiage let's just slot them in the NTL* category and move on.

*NeedToLead

[the_fat_man]

Early horses who quickly clear the field and then remain ahead setting various velocities who have the ability to slow races down. Here is something that helps "see" them. Check the break position of these guys on the next 10 that run. See if there are any clues there.



A while back I posted about the importance of the run to the 1st qtr: this involves both the position at the break and the point where they 'settle' --say 10 to 15 strides. Looking at the break captures only a portion of the info. Alot of things happen, in terms of position changes, horses on wrong leads, etc., that are not immediately obvious by looking at the break and qtr positions. Moreover, position at the break doesn't tell you much about how far back a given horse is ---could be noses. Watching races and adding a call goes a long way towards providing a bigger picture; although, that would screw things up in the present system. Of course, this type of thing involves ALOT of work. I wrote some code last year that would add this info to the FatCharts. But after doing a couple, I got real lazy.

[michiken]

And why not add sustained/early S/E ala Secretariat?

[Tom]

And why not add sustained/early S/E ala Secretariat?

:confused:

[46zilzal]

And why not add sustained/early S/E ala Secretariat?
This need deciphering.

[shanta]

Moreover, position at the break doesn't tell you much about how far back a given horse is ---could be noses. Watching races and adding a call goes a long way towards providing a bigger picture; although, that would screw things up in the present system.

Of course, this type of thing involves ALOT of work. I wrote some code last year that would add this info to the FatCharts. But after doing a couple, I got real lazy.

Funny you should bring up watching races. The man who I have been learning some things from for the past 17 months has a habit of sitting and watching races run. Just watches them. Looks for reactions at the gate,horses who want to take control while others want to follow someone.

While he watches things like what happens when horses do not get their accustomed position( they actually look around like lost souls!) and they are a bit different from what you do he DOES watch races intently.

I think your charts are a tremendous tool fwiw
stay cool

[bigmack]

Alot of things happen, in terms of position changes, horses on wrong leads, etc.,
ALOT of work. I wrote some code last year that would add this info to the FatCharts. But after doing a couple, I got real lazy.
Don't get lazy enough to know that "alot" is awrongo.

I'm this _, close to starting a thread about watching races and the nuances to look for complete with replays. I ask for your support and expect nothing less.

[DJofSD]

Sustained early -- let me take a swipe at it. While I know who Big Red was, I can not say I know what his charts look like -- he was BH for me, before horses.

Perhaps a more recent example (though recent is a relative term) would be Winning Colors. She had a sustained energy distibution but was running on or very near the lead.

[bigmack]

Fairly interesting move here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEOlWDz2KBw

[riskman]

Just keeps on going and going and going, just like the Eveready Bunny

[46zilzal]

Example One: a positional front runner no matter the pace and hung around late. Guess who this one was?

[46zilzal]

A more traditional positional front runner who finally found his form. Balto Star.

[Gibbon]

Zilly,

What you’ve described is Jim Cramer's RS_POS methodology. I’ll see if I can get Ron Tiller to post some appropriate link. That is if Ron is not risking his life climbing yet another mountain.








_____________________________
The racecourse is as level as a billiard ball. ~ John Francombe

[Buzz]

Try this link:

http://www.rspos.com/rsinfo.html

Buzz

[46zilzal]

Nope that is a distillation of Brohamer. ONLY this front running style has no descriptive explanation in segmental velocity and deceleration evaluations.