Surface handicapping revisited

[nobeyerspls]

In a recent thread on surface handicapping I discussed the unique feature of the Calder surface and its relationship with the dirt surface. I noted two things:
1. Horses that have performed well on turf and were then given a little time off with good works on the Calder main track will come back to run very well on the grass.
2. Horses with only northern turf experience are likely to underperform on the Calder turf.

Both of these showed up in the same race on Saturday, the John Franks Juvenile fillies stakes. Wise Cookie, the $26.20 winner, had last raced on September 8th and then posted a series of solid works on the main track. Elle Cashareau, the 3-5 fabvorite who finished fifth, had one race on the Belmont turf. From a betting aspect, it helped that she was ridden by Prado and had been assigned a high beyer as jockey players and numbers people are often led astray. The verticals were difficult in this race but using the winner as a single in the horizontals was most productive.

In that same thread I noted that sprinters running at Calder for the first time are often compromised by the holding nature of that surface. Such was the case for Smoke'n Coal in the race prior. Came in 4th at 4-5 and was never in it.

Lastly, I discussed the move from Kenneland poly to Churchill dirt. There are too many to cite but you will have noticed that the early speed liability at Keeneland has turned into an asset at Churchill.

[point given]

" ...In that same thread I noted that sprinters running at Calder for the first time are often compromised by the holding nature of that surface. Such was the case for Smoke'n Coal in the race prior. Came in 4th at 4-5 and was never in it."


Yeah, I took a stand against the Gilchrist/Baze horse shipping in too, and how the other riders had a nice view of its posterior as well. :blush:

Your other points have some validity. But, trumpeting your $26.score after the fact is a little more red boarding now, rather than purple boarding in your other post on your big p3 score with added self criticism. Glad you made out well. As my grl friend keeps saying, " Keep it up " :lol:

[nobeyerspls]

" ...In that same thread I noted that sprinters running at Calder for the first time are often compromised by the holding nature of that surface. Such was the case for Smoke'n Coal in the race prior. Came in 4th at 4-5 and was never in it."


Yeah, I took a stand against the Gilchrist/Baze horse shipping in too, and how the other riders had a nice view of its posterior as well. :blush:

Your other points have some validity. But, trumpeting your $26.score after the fact is a little more red boarding now, rather than purple boarding in your other post on your big p3 score with added self criticism. Glad you made out well. As my grl friend keeps saying, " Keep it up " :lol:

I took a stand against that one as well. I'm certainly guilty of redboarding but I found a real-time example of the Calder turf attributes that I identified in an earlier thread on surface handicapping so at least the reason for picking the horse was previously posted. Gulfstream is coming soon so I will post some of these before the race as that angle is even more productive at GP.

[Tom]

Nobeyer.....nice angles to have in your tool box. Surface is a bigger factor than I used to give it credit. The last year or two, I have been paying a lot more attention to it. I gotta thank you and Bellsendboy for getting me interested in a couple things I skimmed over in the past.

[bellsbendboy]

Agree Nobeyers that the Calder surface is extremely quirky but would add that the humidity is a much bigger hurdle for shippers, especially with lasix.

I also think that turf performers that have been freshened bear watching most anywhere. Most tracks do not let horses work on the turf unless they are nominated to a stake, that may be why legging them up on the main track works.

I think, the two hardest turf courses to ship into are Keeneland and the Fairgrounds as going gate to wire at either is very difficult. I have some issues with turf races run out of chutes and may be biased as I play Calder maybe once a year.

Tom, all good cooks, skim the fat off the stew! BBB

[Cratos]

In a recent thread on surface handicapping I discussed the unique feature of the Calder surface and its relationship with the dirt surface. I noted two things:
1. Horses that have performed well on turf and were then given a little time off with good works on the Calder main track will come back to run very well on the grass.
2. Horses with only northern turf experience are likely to underperform on the Calder turf.

Both of these showed up in the same race on Saturday, the John Franks Juvenile fillies stakes. Wise Cookie, the $26.20 winner, had last raced on September 8th and then posted a series of solid works on the main track. Elle Cashareau, the 3-5 fabvorite who finished fifth, had one race on the Belmont turf. From a betting aspect, it helped that she was ridden by Prado and had been assigned a high beyer as jockey players and numbers people are often led astray. The verticals were difficult in this race but using the winner as a single in the horizontals was most productive.

In that same thread I noted that sprinters running at Calder for the first time are often compromised by the holding nature of that surface. Such was the case for Smoke'n Coal in the race prior. Came in 4th at 4-5 and was never in it.

Lastly, I discussed the move from Kenneland poly to Churchill dirt. There are too many to cite but you will have noticed that the early speed liability at Keeneland has turned into an asset at Churchill.

Nobeyerspls,

You have raised an interesting observation with your introspection about tracks’ surfaces and their applicability to handicapping,

Therefore as an addendum to your contemplation about surface handicapping I would add that track layout differences should become an integral part of handicapping; especially in sprints.

An example of track differences would be Pimlico, Churchill Downs, and Monmouth. They are all 1 mile in circumference main tracks, but have very different turning radii and stretch lengths. Again, the same comparison can be made for Gulfstream, Saratoga, and Hollywood Park. They are all 1-1/8 miles in circumference, but again very different turning radii and stretch lengths. Also Hollywood Park has a synthetic surface.

[nobeyerspls]

Hi Cratos
Sorry about my late reply but you're right about the circumference issue. I find that it comes into play more on turf where the narrower courses make races vulnerable to trip errors and the wider courses, Woodbine and Gulfstream, permit ground saving trips.
The Canadian circuit used to run their spring and fall meet at Greenwood which had very tight turns. Some horses that could not win at Woodbine excelled on that course.
Did you catch the article in the form today on the Woodbine poly. Seems that they changed the type of wax in the mixture and now they have to deep harrow it more than once a week to loosen it up. Last fall they had to roll it to make it tighter. The five inch harrowing favors closers.