pace numbers outta whack

[icebak]

Has anyone else noticed that pace numbers, particularly early pace numbers, are eggagerated at Keenland and Arlington. I use brisnet products, has anyone found this to be the case with DRF? Love to get some feedback.

[cj]

BRIS pace numbers are always out of whack. :)

I would imagine they aren't updating their "profile" or "par" or whatever it is they use and are basing those on the old real dirt tracks.

[icebak]

Problem is, these (especially Keeland) have seemed out of whack for a couple of years? I dunno, I don't make my own pace numbers so I just wondered if anyone else was noticing the problem? Maybe it's just me?

[andicap]

I find this sometimes happens at KEE at the "about" 7f distance.

[bigmack]

early pace numbers, are eggagerated at Keenland
What is eggagerated?

[Passthehat]

Funny you mention Bris numbers being out of wack.

Are they? How long do you thinnk they've been out of whack?

I used to make pretty regular money using Bris numbers in a Sartinesque capping system.

About a year ago, I ran so cold that it has been ridiculous -- no turn around either, I still cant buy a race.

I am wondering, too, if the #'s arent out of whack. I mean, I was making consistent money for a fairly long amount of time for my system to have been just lucky.

what do you think?

[icebak]

Funny you mention Bris numbers being out of wack.

Are they? How long do you thinnk they've been out of whack?

I used to make pretty regular money using Bris numbers in a Sartinesque capping system.

About a year ago, I ran so cold that it has been ridiculous -- no turn around either, I still cant buy a race.

I am wondering, too, if the #'s arent out of whack. I mean, I was making consistent money for a fairly long amount of time for my system to have been just lucky.

what do you think?


I had a friend who used an "adapted Sartin system" and I found that so many times - especially since he used it for exotics - that he often couldn't see the forest for the trees, so to speak. I find that systems are fine if you have the discipline to stick to them and pass many races. Dry spells like the one you are talking about should be rare especially with the Sartin methodology.

I often find myself "forcing bets" when I am on a losing streak. This invariably leads to more and bigger losses and I wouldn't be the modest winner that i am if I haden't learned to conquer it. Truth be told, it is still a constant battle. You've undoubtedly experienced it for yourself - when you're down $20 win bets just arent good enough, you've just got to "get even."

I certainly don't want to seem presumptuous, but I find that when I am going bad I drop down to small wagers and mainly win bets and small exactas. Main thing is, dont press!

On the issue of the "outta whack" pace numbers, I am really not sure. It has gotten to the point that I can actually play against big early pace numbers at both Keenland and Arlington. I find this to be especially true of early route speed. I don't know and I was really hoping to get some input from someone using the DRF products to see how they compare to the Bris ones. As to the question of how long... I am not sure. I think it was there even before they each switched to the polytrack.

I really do appreciate your input and would love to hear future input on the same (or other) subjects by you in the future. As for the losing streak, go easy and if your handicapping is sound, and you don't press... the wins will come.

[john del riccio]

If you provide me the specific days that you are speaking to regarding whacky pace figs, I will send you my data from those days so you can do a one-one comparison.

John

[Big Bill]

Passthehat,

I am and have been using BRIS pace ratings in three different programs I wrote, as you say, in Sartinesque type methods. I have not noticed any diminishing of my success in selecting winners.

With so many of the tracks going over to synthetic surfaces I asked a friend at BRIS if they were making adjustments in their pace ratings to reflect the changes in the surfaces, e.g., revising the par times used in calculating the pace ratings. He has yet to answer.

Big Bill

[icebak]

Funny you mention Bris numbers being out of wack.

Are they? How long do you thinnk they've been out of whack?

I used to make pretty regular money using Bris numbers in a Sartinesque capping system.

About a year ago, I ran so cold that it has been ridiculous -- no turn around either, I still cant buy a race.

I am wondering, too, if the #'s arent out of whack. I mean, I was making consistent money for a fairly long amount of time for my system to have been just lucky.

what do you think?

I posted a reply for this but can't find it, did you get it?

[icebak]

John, thanks for your response, i will provide some examples asap. Do u use brisnet ultimate PPs?

[skate]

Problem is, these (especially Keeland) have seemed out of whack for a couple of years? I dunno, I don't make my own pace numbers so I just wondered if anyone else was noticing the problem? Maybe it's just me?

content mystification.


especially this time of the year. Kee and AP should be "on their own" imo.

imo, dont confuse the pace fig. of Kee with any other track.

i think, what you should do, either get cold raw pace figures and/or do your own figures. do your own figures for varification.


bris or tsn are not (imo) bad, since they use very good speed figures and the pace figure is really secondary to Speed fig.
many times ive seen tsn pace figures that are just lies, since they refute themselves.

the joke being on me at times, since these tsn fig. (if used) will win you a race as often as they looz you a race.

essential to be able to do your own fig.

[TEJAS KIDD]

In my opinion, what is happening at these tracks is that the riding styles have been changed due to synthetic surfaces. The first season of Kee's synthetic, riders were riding tight and compacted like they were on the grass(not marijuana). What happens to the pace numbers is now that the paces seem to be getting slower, it's easier for someone to spurt clear and open up setting a faster pace. So when compiling the data to make the figures, you may have 2 or 3 races where the pace is well above par and 2 or 3 numbers where the pace is well below par, hence, throwing out huge differences and sending the figures out of whack.

[john del riccio]

In my opinion, what is happening at these tracks is that the riding styles have been changed due to synthetic surfaces.

I couldn't agree more. I mentioned this a while back and lets just say, not too many agreed with me...

John

[Niko]

I agree that a lot of the Bris early pace figs are out of whack for some races at Keeneland and Arlington. Overall I like to Bris pace figs but I always ignore their wacky off track early pace ratings, particularily on muddy or yielding tracks. Whatever doesn't work for them there isn't working on Poly either.

[skate]

In my opinion, what is happening at these tracks is that the riding styles have been changed due to synthetic surfaces. The first season of Kee's synthetic, riders were riding tight and compacted like they were on the grass(not marijuana). What happens to the pace numbers is now that the paces seem to be getting slower, it's easier for someone to spurt clear and open up setting a faster pace. So when compiling the data to make the figures, you may have 2 or 3 races where the pace is well above par and 2 or 3 numbers where the pace is well below par, hence, throwing out huge differences and sending the figures out of whack.

oh yah, makes sense to me.
but then what do you do about it.?

Kee ( ill still play the tracks) AP (for me) have been different. and if we get a lot of rain in S.Cal., again, i gotta adjust.
actually, i just fall apart.

[icebak]

I am sure glad to hear that I am not the only one who has noticed it. It has gotten to the point where I regulaly and severely adjust those pace numbers. Some nice overlays to be had betting against them. Does anyone know if the DRF nums show similar swings?

[icebak]

In my opinion, what is happening at these tracks is that the riding styles have been changed due to synthetic surfaces. The first season of Kee's synthetic, riders were riding tight and compacted like they were on the grass(not marijuana). What happens to the pace numbers is now that the paces seem to be getting slower, it's easier for someone to spurt clear and open up setting a faster pace. So when compiling the data to make the figures, you may have 2 or 3 races where the pace is well above par and 2 or 3 numbers where the pace is well below par, hence, throwing out huge differences and sending the figures out of whack.

This does make sense, but I think I have noticed this before the switch to poly. When did Keenland and Arlington switch? Wasn't this spring the first poly meet for Kee?

[TEJAS KIDD]

This does make sense, but I think I have noticed this before the switch to poly. When did Keenland and Arlington switch? Wasn't this spring the first poly meet for Kee?

I believe KEE's first Poly was Fall of 06. I think this year was the 1st for Arlington. Please anyone correct me if I'm wrong.

[icebak]

Another peculiarity I notice is the E1 and E2 nums in routes seem inflated. If I understand it correctly, with Brisnet the E1 and E2 nums are absolutes. That is to say that a 6f route pace num should be the same as a 6f sprint. But I have noticed - purely anecdotally - that the route nums are higher. Since I do not make my own nums any longer, can anyone explain this to me? Has anyone else noticed this?

[TEJAS KIDD]

oh yah, makes sense to me.
but then what do you do about it.?

Kee ( ill still play the tracks) AP (for me) have been different. and if we get a lot of rain in S.Cal., again, i gotta adjust.
actually, i just fall apart.


I don't do pace numbers any more. When I did pace numbers, I had my pars but I adjusted my pars based on todays field and made projections. Then I adjusted my projections based on the way the pace set up.

Example.
PACE PAR was 46.2
but race was void of any speed, so I projected it to be 47-
then some knucklehead decides to gun his horse and open up many lengths on the field,going out in 45.4. What I would do is end up using the 2nd tier runners PACE to figure my variant and throw out the run off leaders figure. Say the 2nd tier was 4 lengths back. Now my number would be 46.3, so the race would have been a PLUS 2. I'd do the rest of the card and figure out the number in the same manner, I'd average out the difference, then adjust each race based on the daily variant. Of course HEADWINDS and TAILWINDS would effect this too. Some tracks you can actually see the flags blowing on the replay.
I ended up blowing this off ,as it was very time consuming. Now I just make PACE notes that coincide with my trip notes.

Hope this makes sense:bang:

[icebak]

If you provide me the specific days that you are speaking to regarding whacky pace figs, I will send you my data from those days so you can do a one-one comparison.

John

Here's a good example from well before they switched to polytrack - 2004 to be precise.

If you have your Churchill data for Sunday Nov 11, look at the #6 (Banned in Boston) from race #3.

Notice his 2nd last race: 23oct04kee7. Notice how much higher the pace nums are?

another more recent example:

Saturday Nov 10, Race #4. Look at the obviously skewed pace num on the #2, Five star Thief in his last race. What do you think?

[john del riccio]

Here's a good example from well before they switched to polytrack - 2004 to be precise.

If you have your Churchill data for Sunday Nov 11, look at the #6 (Banned in Boston) from race #3.

Notice his 2nd last race: 23oct04kee7. Notice how much higher the pace nums are?

another more recent example:

Saturday Nov 10, Race #4. Look at the obviously skewed pace num on the #2, Five star Thief in his last race. What do you think?

Well, the kee race from 04 was on turf, so its really not a fair comparison.

i don't think the pace fig was skewed on five star thiefs last race,the 11/10 race was his career best pace fig and he did have the lead in the race he just ran.

john

[Passthehat]

I did get it, Icebak. I am definitely forcing bets -- I'll slow it down a bit.

good advice.

[Passthehat]

Hey Big Bill, When doing the Sartin numbers in your programs using Bris, do you perform any adjustments, or just take the Bris # as it is? Secondly, do you crunch the numbers in traditional Sartin Style, separating each contender into

EP -- SP -- AP -- FX -- ect.

Any one or combination work more consistently than the other?


I have real success incorporating the race ratings into the EP, AP, and SP, but I arbitrarily adjust the RR allowing 2 lengths per change in RR. When I first started this, I thought I had found the holy grail. But it has its ups and downs.

[skate]

I don't do pace numbers any more. When I did pace numbers, I had my pars but I adjusted my pars based on todays field and made projections. Then I adjusted my projections based on the way the pace set up.

Example.
PACE PAR was 46.2
but race was void of any speed, so I projected it to be 47-
then some knucklehead decides to gun his horse and open up many lengths on the field,going out in 45.4. What I would do is end up using the 2nd tier runners PACE to figure my variant and throw out the run off leaders figure. Say the 2nd tier was 4 lengths back. Now my number would be 46.3, so the race would have been a PLUS 2. I'd do the rest of the card and figure out the number in the same manner, I'd average out the difference, then adjust each race based on the daily variant. Of course HEADWINDS and TAILWINDS would effect this too. Some tracks you can actually see the flags blowing on the replay.
I ended up blowing this off ,as it was very time consuming. Now I just make PACE notes that coincide with my trip notes.

Hope this makes sense:bang:


yep, makes sense.

as im reading, im saying to myself "ut oh". so when i got to the part where you say "time consuming", i felt better.

thanks