CDX 2007-11-11 race 9 Commonwealth

[DJofSD]

With the late scratch of Elite Squadron, the picture becomes just a bit clearer.

The 1st and 2nd ML picks Distorted Reality and Inca King meet again in today's race. Inca was the winner in the last contest at a big price.

Inca King wants to be on or near the lead while Distorted Reality can run well from slightly further back. Today's distance of 8 1/2 furlongs seems to be more to Distorted's liking.

The big question mark in the race today is Sedgefield. A full brother to English Channel, this runner proved himself capable of running well on the grass before the Kentucky Derby. Layed up due to an ankle injury (bone chip) and subsequent surgery, it showed very little in it's first start since the spring a month ago. This runner did generate some very good numbers for it's outings over the grass with a running style that say's he likes it on or near the lead.

Between Sedgefield and Voy Por Uno Mas, I think Inca King's chances to repeat are compromised. So the question becomes: is Sedgefield ready today and can he carry his speed 8.5 furlongs, and, will Distorted Reality be able to get out to unleash a run at the top of the stretch. Likely Bejarano will be able to get the jump on some of the others to his inside and drop Reality down to the rail behind the early pace setters, saving some ground.

We'll see how this really unfolds. Likely bet Sedgefield and Distorted but until I see the tote board and probables in the exacta, I'm won't say what the structure of the bets will be.

Good luck all.

[the_fat_man]

A number of points:

1) Inca King has won over the CD turf course going 9F. Though he showed he can stalk going shorter last out, he'll probably need the lead going 8.5F. .

2) Sedgefield doesn't need the lead but always seems to get a FUNKY trip--always more wide than he needs to be; moves sooner than necessary, etc. The 2/24 race at GP is the perfect example. Twilight Meteor sucked up and got him late.

3) Distorted Reality gained a bit in the stretch on IK last out and figures to sit a perfect trip. Of course, the only way he can win is by getting a perfect trip. In other words, he ain't much.

Then again, EQUITABLE, breaking from the rail, figures to get a better trip and is cutting back in distance while most of the others are stretching out a bit. Moreover, the horse he beat last out, Parading, came back to hammer a field next time out (on an off turf at KEE). Equitable is working well and should be a price relative to the others mentioned. But he's a bit of a goof ball and is typically studdish in the paddock. I get the sense that he's alot better than he's shown to this point.

[DJofSD]

Well, Sedgefield got that funky trip. Don't know who was fighting who but to me it looked like Julien didn't need to get into the horse as much as he did.

Inca was a better horse than I thought and, well, Distorted was a horse of an alternate Reality.