Race Favorites

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Greetings,
I spoke to a horseplayer this week who admitted that the first task he completes in his daily handicapping procedure was to list and play only the races on the card that had (in his opinion) a vulnerable race favorite or second choice.

This player has access to the post time odds on a daily basis and feels that the edge he receives by labeling and betting only against this vulnerable post time favorite is tremendous to keeping the bulk of his wagers on the overlay combinations.

This man does not limit his betting to any one category he constructs a strategy race to race that offers the most bang for his buck ie.win only or combinations of win and exactas pick3,s when possible.

He appears to be a relatively steady winner however sometimes when all is right he connects on a nice score for a race.

Any players have any comments on this wagering approach I would be interested in hearing your comments because I personally repect the opinion of the handicappers on this site.

Thanks

Zappi

[eastie]

over time only i in 3 faves win and 2 of three are in the money. that means one in 3 are out of the money. Identify the bad faves and that's where the value lies...easy as pie. pick 4's pay the most if the fave doesn't win the first leg....turn it into a pick 3 where you throw the 2 or 3 faves out of the first leg and take the next 3 choices blind...if you get alive and are right ion the next 3 legs...cha ching

[Heuer]

"When the handicap rank matches the betting rank, the horse probably is not an overlay and should not be bet".

Winner's File by Henry Kuck

[Overlay]

"When the handicap rank matches the betting rank, the horse probably is not an overlay and should not be bet".

Winner's File by Henry Kuck

I think you have to factor odds into the equation, too. Even if you and the public both assign the same numerical rank within a field to a particular horse, the odds established by the public can still offer value. It all depends on the probability of winning that you assign to the horse. Going beyond just ranking by developing a full-field fair-odds line can allow you to spot that value wherever in the field it might be present (favorites or non-favorites).

[John]

There is no Man alive

That pays the rent with 6/5

Harvy Pack