Posted picks

[advancedcapper]

It was advised that I should "put up or shut up" yesterday, so against my better judgement, I posted three horses here. I actually had three bets for yesterday, but the first one had already won, which i stated. I added another pick later, after issuing two plays. He looked like an easy wire to wire candidate.

My first horse won, and the three I mentioned to play under him ran 2-3-4, resulting in a nice tri and super, as well as an $8+ payout.

The second horse ran second and the three horses i mentioned to use with him (I originally had him with 5 horses, but two scratched) ran 1-3-4, again having my choices sweep the first 4 spots.

My third horse blew a three length lead turning for home stretching out to a mile and tired badly at the 1/16 pole to run 4th??, I believe. Doesn't matter, he lost.

Only a 33% win percentage, but enough to produce a profit.

I just realized another reason for betting at OTB instead of at home. My computer froze up in the 8th at Crc and I got it up just in time to hit the superfecta real good, but then it really froze up and caused me to miss a superfecta box that paid $15K at Aqueduct in the last race, as I only liked 5 horses in the entire field. I don't know if I would have hit it anyway, as i rarely box and usually only play one and at the most two horses on top in that situatin, but after getting back online and seeing my horses run 1-2-3-4, it makes you mad as hell. NJBETS has two video streams and it messes with your computer if you decide to run some spreadsheets, like I was doing. (dumb of me)

Either way, I hope at least one person out there hit the races yesteray.

Good luck.

ac

[HUSKER55]

Doesn't it suck when the computer crashes? Good to see your night was not a total loss. Mine was fine until the last race, (which was my pick of the litter). Never abandon a betting strategy. I am thinking of getting a tattoo with that on my arm so I don't forget. When I think I have the lock on the door I find out I staggered to the wrong door. :)


Would you mind giving me some guidance? How do you deal with (or create) a variant when the DRF does not provide one?

Thanks

[advancedcapper]

Explain more. I am not exactly sure what you mean. Are you referring to the 79-18 number to the right of the weight and just before the top three finishers?

Usually, when the DRF doen't provide a variant, it is because the track was so incredibly fast for the day, they couldn't come up with a proper number. In this case, at an equal distance, you will find that subtracting about 8 Beyer points will do the trick.

If you are talking about something different, please explain further.

I NEVER use the variant, unless it is very slow, such as 78-34, and I am looking at the fractional times for a race and need to "know" why the pace was so slow. Other than that, the only time I will use a variant is when many horses have Beyers about the same and i know those 3-4 horses have the top spots locked up and I just can't figure out which is the winner. I will look to see the variant, as sometimes, such as in the first race a Calder yesterday, the top three choices were my three picks and the total variants added together produced the winner for me as well as the tri.

ac.

[cj]

DRF often doesn't provide a variant when the track is new, or the surface is new. This has happened a lot lately with the new artificial surfaces. It doesn't have anything to do with the times being too fast.

[GaryG]

Husker - If you have the time it is MUCH better to create your own variant. That way you know just what went into the figures. Of course, if you play more than two tracks it is nearly impossible.

[advancedcapper]

I didn't know what his question pertained to. I don't play the polytrack or artificial surfaces as a rule, so that answer would never pop into my head. You are correct in that respect though. My answer is also correct.

In thinking it over, yours is probably the answer he was looking for, because of all the polytrack and other surfaces popping up.

I have one thing that does produce some nice winners on the polytrack (slower surfaces) and am fine tuning it on a daily basis, although not wagering too much yet. If I am having a good dirt day, i will throw a couple of bets in and have done quite well to date, but I can't seem to pick from the 3-4-5 horses that I come up with. Convebtional handicapping doesn't work.

ac

[HUSKER55]

Thank you for the input. I appreciate your efforts. I always thought that the variants had a lot to do with the condition of the track but as I learn more each day I am starting to rethink traditional wisdom.

Lets take these variants for example. If a track was properly maintained then what would cause the difference in final time? The whole point of synthetic tracts is for all weather conditions and consistent times.

Maybe I am wrong but the higher the variant then the slower the horses were for that day and it has nothing to do with the track.

If a horse runs a 90 (DRF Score) and the track variant for the day is 15 then if the track was rated 10 on the next day we can assume this horse would set a new record?

I don't think so. I think the horse was running in a slow field and has more to do with the quality of the entries than speed of the track.

Since I made that post I have been giving this some thought and I am wondering what the value really is.

Your input and thoughts would be appreciated. Am I looking at this right??

[advancedcapper]

If a horse runs a 90 by DRF standards, it means he is 10 pts, or 2 seconds slower than an avg time for that distance. If he did it on a 10 track, then theoritically, he was par for the day/distance. If he did it on a 20 track, then he was two seconds faster than the par.

All this is worthless in handicapping. These numbers are meaningless and like a caveman & einstein having a conversation compared to the Beyer ratings.

BUT..........And this is a big but. All the numbers are worthless if you don't have a grasp of what kind of pace a horse can keep, what kind of class he has shown and what kind of company he has kept. These three things, specifically pace are the most important thing in picking winners.

Did you see the horse I posted at Crc yesterday? I mentioned he was a strong candidate to go wire to wire. He, under normal circumstances, would have packed it in after 5-6f in a normal paced race with normal competition. However, yesterday, he had the advantage of going at a slow rate for 6f, thereby conserving his energy for the stretch, where he pulled away. PACE. The first thing I learned was to determine HOW the field would be running after 2f & 4f in sprints and 4f & 6f in route races. If you can "see" this in your head before the race goes off, you can set a mental picture of the rest of the fields ability when they reach that second point of call I mentioned.

ac...More to come if you are lost so far.

[GaryG]

More to come if you are lost so far.:lol: :lol: :lol:

[cj]

Two things about the DRF variant (which, by the way, I wouldn't use in a million years).

If a horse runs a 90 by DRF standards, it means he is 10 pts, or 2 seconds slower than an avg time for that distance. If he did it on a 10 track, then theoritically, he was par for the day/distance. If he did it on a 20 track, then he was two seconds faster than the par.

Actually, this isn't true. There is no average time for the distance. DRF uses the BEST time recorded at the track in the last three years. This is why I have to disagree with your assertion below that your answer is also correct. I don't think it is. If you don't know something, there is no harm in saying so rather than leading someone astray.

In this case, no harm, no foul. As you noted, the variants are horrible anyway.

I didn't know what his question pertained to. I don't play the polytrack or artificial surfaces as a rule, so that answer would never pop into my head. You are correct in that respect though. My answer is also correct.

[advancedcapper]

You are correct. I knew that, but stated it incorrectly. Where i typed "average" is beyond me. Brain cramp. They do in fact take the best time, which I was trying to state, but that best time may or may not be a true indicator of speed or time on a track.

Don't be a hater. You could have worded your answer differtently.

As for my statements after the mistake. I stand by them 1000%.if not more.

ac

[advancedcapper]

After the first reply about the variants most likely being connected with the polytrack and newer surfaces, I would have bet $1,000,000 I was barking up the wrong tree in this matter, I never play poly, so it amazed me that the guy in question was STILL using those variants. They have maybe one or two purposed at best.

You realize my last answer was in jest. :)

ac

[sally]

BUT..........And this is a big but. All the numbers are worthless if you don't have a grasp of what kind of pace a horse can keep, what kind of class he has shown and what kind of company he has kept. These three things, specifically pace are the most important thing in picking winners.

Did you see the horse I posted at Crc yesterday? I mentioned he was a strong candidate to go wire to wire. He, under normal circumstances, would have packed it in after 5-6f in a normal paced race with normal competition. However, yesterday, he had the advantage of going at a slow rate for 6f, thereby conserving his energy for the stretch, where he pulled away. PACE. The first thing I learned was to determine HOW the field would be running after 2f & 4f in sprints and 4f & 6f in route races. If you can "see" this in your head before the race goes off, you can set a mental picture of the rest of the fields ability when they reach that second point of call I mentioned.

ac...More to come if you are lost so far.

This is what I'd like to learn more about...what was it that told you your horse would have the advantage of a slow rate for 6f??? Are you looking to see who ran the quickest 6f in the past? Was that your horse?