Top 4 Modeling

[gallahadion]

Does anyone know if there is a software out there that takes result data along with pp data and develops a model of the "type" of horse that finishes in each of the top 4 spots. Then the software would look at all of todays horses and provide you with a report of which horses fit which of the top 4 spots and of course tell you which horses didn't fit any of the top 4 spots. This is definately a "more likely" type of pigeon holeing but thats what I'm looking for.

[Donnie@HTR]

Check out HTR....you can model off past races and when you open the modeler, it lets you bring up the exact type of race that you are looking at and shows you what works for that exact type of race....or what doesn't work for that upcoming race......

www.htr2.com

Ken will usually give a free weekend with the program so you can try before you purchase data for it...the program is always free.

[richrosa]

HandicappingOS has powerful modeling features and does exactly what you are looking for. It models the most likely to win and a value line. You can model by track, distance, surface, track condition. Every week I've been bulking up the features in the modeler.

[TonyK@HSH]

HSH should have no problem serving your needs. Definitely worth checking out

[kitts]

Models and profiles are a major componenet of All-In-One V6

[shanta]

My lady won't let me keep a model on the side.Says what's in front of me is enough.
:(

[GameTheory]

But none of those specifically model each slot -- 1,2,3, & 4 -- as he asked, do they?

[richrosa]

HOS has a model builder for Win, Place and Show. You can query that by track, distance, surface, and track condition.

[Gibbon]

Devils Advocate – no rudeness intended......

With all the talented application builders I'm bewildered that not every
winner pays 2/5 or less????

Those no pace simpletons {sheet players} continue to exert undue influence upon major race venues.
At some tracks, completely dominate pools.








_____________________________
He knows when you're happy
He knows when you're comfortable
He knows when you're confident
And he always knows when you have carrots.
~Author Unknown

[Jeff P]

Devils Advocate – no rudeness intended......

With all the talented application builders I'm bewildered that not every
winner pays 2/5 or less????
Are you saying just because I consider myself to be a "talented" application builder I should be able to create an algorithm that picks one horse to win from every race run in North America and have that algorithm be right more than 70 percent of the time?

Don't you think that's asking a lot?

Here's the thing - I can build algorithms that predict win rates of horses across large data samples with (IMHO) a surprisingly high degree of accuracy. Yet the highest win rates I can accurately predict are limited to a smallish set of horses that do win their races outright about 2/3rds of the time. In those limited cases where I can do that, fair odds on those horses translates to about 1-2 or a win payoff of about $3.00.

Devils Advocate – no rudeness intended......

Given the actual win rates of horses in multiple horse fields I'm bewildered why anyone would think the public would bet the most likely winner in each field down to 2/5 or less...

Sigh... I can only dream how nice it would be if someone would step up and do that for me. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:



-jp

.

[gallahadion]

But none of those specifically model each slot -- 1,2,3, & 4 -- as he asked, do they?

Game Theory stated my question in one sentence. Do any of your programs model each slot - 1,2,3, &4?

Output I am looking for is: for example - 12 horses are in this mythical race. I want to play the superfecta. I usually play a
$16 ticket ( 1,2 / 1,2,3 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5). I start with selecting my contenders for the win slot. Then I select an additional horse for the place slot. Etc, Etc. Right now I keep a spreadsheet of which running styles are finishing in the top 4 spots for specific distances. I use this data to help me select the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots. I'm looking for some output from a program that would lead me to select say Horse 7 over Horse 8 to finish in the 4th slot because of a certain number of factors that a program might be able to identify that I am not able to.

[Gibbon]

Don't you think that's asking a lot? An interesting query. All the rhetoric on new and greatly improved modeling based on yesteryear data whose dynamics has probably changed for today's race is a curiosity. Once a data set has some discernible nugget of wisdom today's randomness is sure to upset that model.

That's not to imply modeling is useless. Not at all. On very large samples we can draw factual conclusions. Example: early speed on old fashion dirt, late speed on turf. The obvious has no need for expert systems.

If a computer player is certain of his/hers models then one has a reasonable expectations of ever increasing bet size. As is the case with pompous and smug sheet players. :cool: Jeff, I can tell you with absolute confidence; computer players are an insignificance/nuisance on the biggest $ circuit in this country. NYRA. And pose no threat to my bankroll.

Many a wall street firm hires real rocket scientist and math Ph.D's to build impress models which works within a short time frame. Ask the subprime mortgage lenders! In the long run, simple fundamentals work best. But hey, the vast array of computer generated numbers {based on flawed collection methods} sure do look impressive.








The old dfr + variant. :lol:


My poor Giants. Should have listened to those computer models. Dallas - computer best bet of week. :faint:

[bigmack]

new and greatly improved modeling based on yesteryear data whose dynamics has probably changed for today's race is a curiosity. Once a data set has some discernible nugget of wisdom today's randomness is sure to upset that model.
Newsbreak, Gibbon/Bala. Randomness is an entity present in all endeavors. Modeling, when done properly, serves the end-user well and is often the basis for churning large numbers through the windows. Try it without them & you'll be doomed.