Friday Churchill 4

[bellsbendboy]

Another terrific sequence with two maidens and a pair of nonwinners. Spent some time but now running late so prerace analysis will be short.

7

SCHOLAR is a big number but she worked well here in the spring, gets Jesus back and Drury plenty capable even off slow cross town three eights. Mjaka bred ran a better race than it appears the last day of the meet and Orientate weanling buy is a half to a pair of very good runners and could be very live here. STITCH has an extraordinary win early pedigree, dam is four for four and barn makes few mistakes. Pretty Carina also figures for team TNT, by exceptional debut sire out of a mare that won at 2. Also adding Bella Roja and "pursuit; the former shows a big big work ( but no gate move?)and the latter is the best bred filly in the world (her gate work was 9/19) for a pair of big time vanilla conditioners.

8

Robby should be plenty hard to hit if KJ leaves him alone. Simms batting a big percentage, the rail is out and works spot on. GLEE CLUBS dam was a very good performer on turf earning some $500K and Ian puts the shades on, and Calvin up. Also favored CURVATURE a homer who makes his turf debut and is the one to beat.

9

MINEWANDER may run these down as she drops, keeps Larry and her works very good. Also SPRITELY for team TAP who adds blinkers AFTER a win! Another with a set of solid works.

10

These sophomores have a combined 46 starts and it is safe to say many will become career maidens. CASTILLO DEL SOL looks like a nice horse even so. This breeding suggests unsoundness and the layoff lines are not attractive but this big time pricy yearling always seems to run his race. Inbred four x four to the great Gone West fitness is the question. Going to DRF.com and selecting workouts search reveals this Hobby charge has worked AUG>>> 16th, 22, 28 Sept 3,9,16,23 then the big Keenland work etc. This colt worked VERY well here last fall and maidens often point for meets and this is the first two turn dirt maiden heat. Entered at seven poles cross state with Rene and scratched. Confident Monday move. We'll single this one. 1,2,9,10,12 / 1,2,8 / 3,6, / 3

[bellsbendboy]

Could not quite get the twenty to one, the thirty to one or the 40-1 shots on our ticket but it wasn't for lack of effort.

Leg one the maiden featured the Un B song thing of Eddie K's. She is owned by Mary and Gary and the NY bred daughter of Touch Gold broke running and won with something left returning $60! Our five pack ran well enough cept for Scholar who bore out on the bend. This was a clear race for us and we failed magnificently.

Examining RIVAL ISLAND's ($43.80) past performances took a good twenty minutes and we could not discern anything regarding his level of ability. I guess he who runs in the most derby's wins. The Petionville homer had come off three similar layoffs and did not run a jump in any of them. Anytime you see Neilsens horses (Everest Stables) chaos is around the corner. We knew the Claiborne gelding was up against it and foolishly included him and his odds on frivolity. Calvin and/or Robby's horse were about fifty percent and could not get it done.

9) Normalcy returns, albeit briefly with team TAP $6.60.

10) While our single was a good try and the layoff aside solid cappin, we did look at Hapitano ($78.60) for a spell. As pointed out two turn maidens in November are seldom good plays and this heat was filled with wanna be's. Getting back to the enigmatic Hapitano and his price is right connections. The 3yo gelding from the first crop of Mott's grass MSW Hap had been well set up. To wit an incredibly declining Beyer (and TG) pattern seldom seen.
Using Beyer he debuted with a very solid 72, then, in order, 63, 57,45,42 before taking a break. This pattern is SELDOM seen. Entered on turf, second blinks at 60-1 the money was down, but so was the rail, and Melancon out of a bad post irrationally chased a fifty to one shot through insane fractions while well wide. No problem. Try again three weeks later, but he moves from racing Saturday to racing Thursday, meaning he goes from the hedge to rail at 22 feet and catches a nice colt from the late Cynthis Phipps stable who has big speed and a bit of quality. With McKee replacing the fired Melancon Hapitano chases outside for most of the race before understandably tiring. A layoff ensues, before a try upstate that is much, much , much better than it looks, although Beyer awards a 74 (no loss of ground) and Thorograph calls it a 6!!!!!!!!!!! A six can and often does win a stake. Breeze him twice at five eights, (do not take a chance on him being short) and get the money.
I have no axe to grind with Pellegrini but will note that he has won (by memory) about six races at Churchill over the last three years or so and has paid over $50 in five of them!!

The pick four comes back 78,000 for a deuce and woulda coulda.... we were not even close. But they are going to run Sunday at CD and we have a form. Thinking Guidry wins the last today. BBB

[jackmc]

Guidry off the Board in his finale ..... gl Sun from jmc

[Murph]

Could not quite get the twenty to one, the thirty to one or the 40-1 shots on our ticket but it wasn't for lack of effort.

Getting back to the enigmatic Hapitano and his price is right connections. The 3yo gelding from the first crop of Mott's grass MSW Hap had been well set up. To wit an incredibly declining Beyer (and TG) pattern seldom seen.
Using Beyer he debuted with a very solid 72, then, in order, 63, 57,45,42 before taking a break. This pattern is SELDOM seen. BBB

That doesn't feel quite right to me. On his last 3 races I have Haptiano matching
or besting my par in his last race and his 3rd race back. He
shows a poor second race back though. 101 LR - 93 2RB - 100 3RB

His last race matches numbers with Castillo's last. Best in field for
the last race was a 104 by Good Request. I thought that Bianchi's Boy
was set for this one, right back in two weeks for Romans with a 103 LR
figure.

A challenging pik sequence!


Murph