Turf Inquiry [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Derek2U

01-11-2003, 10:11 AM

There is ONE main reason why BQ gave up on racing, aside from the fact that he is by nature DEF not a bettor-gambler. That reason is HE DID NOT obtain ANY "predictive" variables. The books are great reading, and they spawned others with that IV thingy, but NOWHERE, in any way, did he actually show any significant "formula"-approach that worked. I think he saw this and to his credit as a true math-guy said Enuff. It's the fake math types that exploit their little knowledge to everyones ruin.

Tom

01-11-2003, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by JimL
Speed Points, Race Shapes, Quirin Pace and Speed Figures, Turf Sires per Roi, Three of the best books I have ever read and then nothing but golf! I will never understand this!

He came, he gave, he left, he teed off.
Maybe he figures he gave us enough already. Like he was the Beatles of racing-just couldn't sustain that level forever. Too bad. I have been using his ideas for as long as I can remember.

hurrikane

01-11-2003, 12:16 PM

your a trip Derek.

karlskorner

01-11-2003, 06:40 PM

If Dick Schmidt feels that he is not priviliged to answer, maybe I can.

Spent some time during the winter of 87/88 with Quirin, Quinn, Takach, Iggy from Racing Channel and others. He was driving a 3-4 old black Mercedes at the time, took us back and forth to the hotel.

Although his books are probably worthwhile reading, he was not a "winner". If you keep losing year after year, you take up golf.

As a matter of fact, neither was Quinn a winner. Takach and Iggy were true "craftsman"

kitts

01-11-2003, 06:57 PM

I was able to hang out with Quinn a bit in the early 90s. If he bet what he said he would bet, he made money. His seminars at SA with Brohamer were superb.

karlskorner

01-11-2003, 07:20 PM

Not to be facatious and prolong this thread, I have always been of the belief that those that "do" do and those that don't, write books and hold seminars.

01-11-2003, 11:22 PM

Karl,

I have to ask...who did you learn from? You knock every single "name" person that comes up. You don't credit anyone on the forum here for being good handicappers. I'm not trying to start a pointless cyber fight, I'm just curious!

CJ

rrbauer

01-12-2003, 12:14 AM

Derek wrote:
There is ONE main reason why BQ gave up on racing, aside from the fact that he is by nature DEF not a bettor-gambler. That reason is HE DID NOT obtain ANY "predictive" variables. The books are great reading, and they spawned others with that IV thingy, but NOWHERE, in any way, did he actually show any significant "formula"-approach that worked. I think he saw this and to his credit as a true math-guy said Enuff. It's the fake math types that exploit their little knowledge to everyones ruin.

Generally, I think that Derek is in the right arena here. I spoke with Quirin several times in the early 80's (after book #1, before book #2) and tried to engage him in some model-driven betting that I was doing then with the P6 which was in its infancy at the time. He begged off repeatedly stating that on a college prof's salary with a big house payment and a young family that he didn't have the funds to risk. He did tell me that he was working on a multiple-regression model for win betting and promised to keep me in the loop if/when it showed enough promise on paper to merit going live with it.

Never heard from him again.

Lindsay

01-12-2003, 02:43 AM

Karlskorner wrote:

"Not to be facatious and prolong this thread, I have always been of the belief that those that "do" do and those that don't, write books and hold seminars."

Not to be "facatious," Karlskorner, but how do you categorize blowhards like yourself? I have always been of the belief that people who brag as frequently and as obnoxiously and as insultingly as you do are lying, jealous losers who would give anything to write a book that 10 people would BUY--instead of resorting to GIVING away over 700 posts on a message board and protesting too damn much in all too many of them.

PaceAdvantage

01-12-2003, 04:07 AM

Lindsay.....I don't get it. I don't see karlskorner at all like you do. Obnoxious?? Insulting??? Are you sure you don't have karl confused with some others on here who actually fit that description?????????????????????????

Is there a full moon out there tonight? All the personal attacks are starting to get boring.....

hurrikane

01-12-2003, 07:03 AM

Personally, I think Quirin had some very good insight into racing and some very new and creative ideas. Many of these same ideas I hear people use up here. Maybe they don't realize where they came from.

Being a winning horse player takes a lot more than picking horses. In fact, picking the horses may be the easiest part of the game.

karlskorner

01-12-2003, 09:52 AM

cjmilkowski;

Who did I learn from ? Observation. I don't think I have "discredited" any handicapper on this board.

Lindsay:

I took some time to review your contributions to this board. In the past I have posted what has "worked" for me. The latest is the CD, others such as "key race" horses, bias, tractors, trainers, jockeys, news articles and numerous other things that have "worked" for me that I am willing to share. Some may find them usefull, others may not. In most cases I have had to defend my observations.

PA;

No need to defend me, I have learned many things in 20 years at the track, some I have I have posted, the balance, from here on in, I intend to keep to myself. 90% of the members are computer oriented, I am not, they have books, programs, selections etc. to sell, I have nothing to sell.

Tom

01-12-2003, 10:24 AM

I have personally benefited from things Karl has posted. As with other posters, CJ, andicap, Sufferin, que, Melman, Derek (great guy to spend an afternoon "picking" with) and many others.

andicap

01-12-2003, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Lindsay.....I don't get it. I don't see karlskorner at all like you do. Obnoxious?? Insulting??? Are you sure you don't have karl confused with some others on here who actually fit that description?????????????????????????

Is there a full moon out there tonight? All the personal attacks are starting to get boring.....

PA, I wish you would clamp down on these personal attacks.
If you remember that's what hurt Prodigy a lot -- people got tired of all the flaming.
Secondly, why discourage Karl from sharing his insights. Those that don't want to listen -- just tune him out. There are others -- like myself -- who enjoy hearing Karl's opinion.
Some I agree with -- others I don't. I can think for myself. I don't need other people telling me who I should and shouldn't listen to.

Karl, don't let one person discourage you from sharing. After all, I'm certain you have learned some things from us.

ponyplayer

01-12-2003, 12:49 PM

Have to agree with Karlskorner. Most guys I know that have left the game have left because they are tired of losing. Think about it, would you leave if you were always in the plus at the end of the year.

Lindsay

01-12-2003, 06:50 PM

Karlskorner,

How many times have you written the following?

"Never take investment advice from someone who's working"

What, exactly, does this mean in the context in which you constantly use it? Doesn't "investment advice" signify handicapping advice? Are you not saying that we should refuse to take handicapping advice that comes from people who work for a living? If so, and I think we both know it's so, how many people on this board are you insulting? 500+, right?

More Karlskorner:

"I have always been of the belief that those that "do" do and those that don't, write books and hold seminars."

The problem here, Karlskorner, is that many people, including Dick Schmidt, Beyer, Quinn, Ragozin, Pizzola, Fotias, Brohamer, and a friend of mine, write books and/or give seminars, and claim they "do," as you are using "do" here, namely, as a stand-in for "win." You are calling them liars. It's as simple as that. You aren't doing it by name, except in the case of Quinn, but you are calling them liars nonetheless, and this is a personal attack. I, for one, would like it better if you would just go ahead and call them liars by name. It would be more gallant, I think, one hell of a lot more gallant than the way you go about calling them liars.

"I don't think I have "discredited" any handicapper on this board."

Definitions of "discredit": 1. to dishonor 2. to cast doubt on 3. to refuse to believe

On this very string, you wrote the following in regard to Quinn and Quirin:

"Although his books are probably worthwhile reading, he was not a "winner". If you keep losing year after year, you take up golf."

Earlier, Dick Schmidt wrote (and you no doubt read) that Quinn makes the bulk of his living at the track.

ranchwest

01-12-2003, 07:10 PM

Lindsay,

I re-read Karl's post and the golf comment was referring to Quirin, not Quinn. Not trying to take sides, just pointing out what I read.

JimG

01-12-2003, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by andicap
PA, I wish you would clamp down on these personal attacks.

I totally agree. This used to be a horse racing board. With the way things have been going lately, perhaps it should be re-named Soap Opera Advantage. I would like to see posts that attack another poster (not to be confused with the subject matter of the post) be immediately taken down when discovered. I believe the board would be more enjoyable for the vast majority.

Jim

Lindsay

01-12-2003, 07:29 PM

Ranchwest,

Thanks. I ended the quote prematurely. Here's more:

"Although his books are probably worthwhile reading, he was not a "winner". If you keep losing year after year, you take up golf.

As a matter of fact, neither was Quinn a winner."

Quinn writes books and gives seminars. To Karlskorner, that means Quinn cannot "do." No matter how you slice it, Karlskorner is calling Quinn a liar. My mistake was in saying he called him a liar by name. He didn't. He called him a liar in his usual way. I don't know if Karlskorner is calling Quirin a liar because I don't know if Quirin ever called himself a winner.

keilan

01-12-2003, 07:30 PM

Lindsay -- I saw through this guy in the first month or two on this board, it took a little longer for others. What amazes me to this day is the number of followers he has. Horse players want to believe sooo badly!!

I have never seen one lick of proof yet guys here will defend him to high heaven. I believe I have read most of his post in the time I've been here, and have yet to gain any handicapping knowledge.

And until I do, my opinion is not likely to change. There's guy's here who would eat his lunch daily IMO.

PaceAdvantage

01-12-2003, 09:01 PM

Keilan & Lindsay,

Does it really matter much in the end? Let it go, will you guys??

As in real life, you're not going to like and/or agree with every poster on this board. Karlskorner ain't selling anything, and comes across to me as an interesting guy with something to say. Whether he has credibility or not is up to the individual. Don't make judgements for us...we as a group are completely capable of making said judgements for ourselves.

If you feel this strongly, I recommend that you go into your PROFILE and add Karlskorner to your IGNORE list. That way, those that want to pay attention to what he says can, and those that don't won't even know he's around....

==PA

GR1@HTR

01-12-2003, 09:02 PM

Re Quirin: What if he wasn't a better? No prob w/ me. He was the first to publish statistics to go with his statements. ie...The first to make a statement and back it up with data. No other horse writer had done so to date. Besides, some folks just enjoy the research.

Statisticians scientist, engineers all do research...I assume because they enjoy it, not because they are looking to place wagers...

Speed Figure

01-12-2003, 09:13 PM

"Thoroughbred Handicapping State Of The Art" was the 1st book that i read.it made me a much better handicapper.I started playing the horses back in 98.Tom Brohamer put me up on the book from looking at his Pace & Speed video.

karlskorner

01-12-2003, 09:17 PM

I had a 2 page post written out to answer your above post, threw the whole thing out, what am I crazy wasting my time in your "sandbox"

There are 586 members on this Board, (plus untold lukers), I have 4 critics, not a bad average, smf his friend Wyatt ,you and now Keilan, there maybe others, but as of now that's all I know of. Keilan states he has viewed most of my posts and hasn't learned anything new, Keilan, why bother ?

I went to the trouble of skimming through the 93 posts you have made and the 176 made by Keilan and not once did I find a constructive suggestion by either of you that maybe of use to your fellow handicappers. Why ? You may disagree on my suggestions, this is your privilege, I have private mail and from recent post, those that appreciate some, if not all ,of what I have posted.

I posted to PA that the majority of members are "computer people" who can go through 3 zillion races in their data base and narrow it down to where a horse with one white stockiing on his left foreleg, runs a good mile and 1/16th especially on a Tuesday.
Not my bag of tea and maybe I really don't belomg here

GR1@HTR

01-12-2003, 09:24 PM

In the history of the PA board, we have been blessed with 3 bright minds...And they have all left for one reason or another...

Scoopcone
ITM
Peopleplayer

We don't need another leave...Stay and play...

PaceAdvantage

01-12-2003, 09:30 PM

Despite not wanting to prolong this line of discussion, I need to state the following:

GR1, maybe I'm missing something incredibly obvious, but I can't fathom how you can equate Karlscorner to the three ex-posters you just listed.

==PA

GR1@HTR

01-12-2003, 09:35 PM

They were 3 of the most prolific and controversial posters...Fine entertainment...Thought I would bring up some old school and classic nostalgia...

smf

01-12-2003, 10:25 PM

I have to disagree, PA. Look at the Chinese Double thread. On jan2 I asked a straightforeward question and got a rather pompous, arrogant reply.

Last night, the same thing. I asked, in a civil & curteous manner a question and he goes off on me (has happened to others as well). Look at his replies to those serious/ non flammable questions in that CD thread and there's an "attitude" that is exactly what you are describing. Not sure why it is dismissed or ignored, but it is.

We can live with it. No big deal.

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Lindsay.....I don't get it. I don't see karlskorner at all like you do. Obnoxious?? Insulting??? Are you sure you don't have karl confused with some others on here who actually fit that description?????????????????????????

Is there a full moon out there tonight? All the personal attacks are starting to get boring.....

GameTheory

01-12-2003, 10:38 PM

smf --

I consider both you & Karl to be some of the smarter ones around here, and enjoy reading both your posts, EXCEPT when you are addressing karl, wherein you seem quite snotty. That includes the Jan 2. post you just referenced, where you appeared to be asking a very much "loaded" question. You seem to be always attempting to "trap" Karl with his own words for some reason. I agree completely with PA about Karl -- I just don't see it -- no attitude. He has his opinions, and he states 'em. That's what I come here to read from everybody. But making personal attacks about people just makes the poster look foolish -- I will never understand why people do it...

smf

01-12-2003, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by GR1
They were 3 of the most prolific and controversial posters...Fine entertainment...Thought I would bring up some old school and classic nostalgia...

I disagree, GR1. I'd say that Ray Gordon and Fastracehorse are the most prolific and controversial. Let's look at the following:

-They have angles/ theories (not for sale) that only work for them, and their explanations of application(s) are vague when asked to describe their "secrets" to success in detail. Every race they bet is hit, and if you lose (or prove the methods lose) using the same method with the same raw #'s using the basic math, then YOU are to blame, not the method.

-Speaking of success, they make untold amounts from the windows. Just read their posts!

-They have never ventured into the Selections section to ply their craft/ show their stuff.

- No poster on this board has ever seen these guys at the windows making or cashing bets. ("internet personality")

--Redboard, redboard and more redboard.

-They get touchy and defensive when asked blunt questions of their method.

Does Karl fit the above profile? To me he does. That's why I'd put him, Gordo and Fast in that top 3 of "controversial" posters.

smf

01-12-2003, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by GameTheory
smf --

I consider both you & Karl to be some of the smarter ones around here, and enjoy reading both your posts, EXCEPT when you are addressing karl, wherein you seem quite snotty. That includes the Jan 2. post you just referenced, where you appeared to be asking a very much "loaded" question. You seem to be always attempting to "trap" Karl with his own words for some reason. I agree completely with PA about Karl -- I just don't see it -- no attitude. He has his opinions, and he states 'em. That's what I come here to read from everybody. But making personal attacks about people just makes the poster look foolish -- I will never understand why people do it...

GT,

This is "snotty"? I asked the question in earnest. It is pasted below and had merit. He didn't **yet** specify that the late double was not played. Curious as to what parts of that question was out of order.

---------------------------
Karl,

Straightforeward question;

You stated that you leave the track early when you've done well in the early races. Get up, go to the car, drive home.

That being the case, why would you do that when you have a "70% play" waiting for you at the end of the card? That late Double has to be worth hanging around for, assuming it's a "70% play" as you state it to be.

----------------------------

smf

01-12-2003, 10:54 PM

GT,

I should have included this piece of info in my post above...

You stated...."You seem to be always attempting to "trap" Karl with his own words for some reason. "

GT,

To my memory, I haven't posted anything to karl since mid July other than the CD thread. Can you be more specific of when it was I tried to "trap" him into anything?

Thanks.

Amazin

01-12-2003, 11:16 PM

This fued interests me because when discussing an issue,some people can't stick to the subject and address the issues as I was victim to by several in the Iraq debate..If you don't like what someone says ,show some inteligence in responding to why you disagree with what he said.BUT STOP THERE..Personal attacks are not only unnecessary but irrelevant to the subject.You don't know me.I don't even know all of me. I'll say flat out that they make the attacker look like an idiot and shows defeat in the subject because he now has to resort to emotional stupidity to make himself look smart.Hindu religion has a wise saying:When you point your finger at me ,you also have 3 pointing back at yourself.

smf

01-12-2003, 11:28 PM

Amazin,

Not sure who you are 'pointing your finger at' <G>.

Seriously, my questions to Karl in the Chinese Double thread were genuine & in earnest, but I received responses that were offensive to say the least. Usually I just let folks slide their comments in and I let em go at that. Perhaps it's the redboarding that gets under my skin. In any event, it's over, to me.

Only time from here on I'll remark of the guy is when he insists of it happening.

ranchwest

01-13-2003, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by GR1
Re Quirin: What if he wasn't a better? No prob w/ me. He was the first to publish statistics to go with his statements. ie...The first to make a statement and back it up with data. No other horse writer had done so to date. Besides, some folks just enjoy the research.

Statisticians scientist, engineers all do research...I assume because they enjoy it, not because they are looking to place wagers...

You make very good points.

If I might take this in a slightly different direction (and my comments are to the general audience, not pointed at you, GR1)....

EVERYONE, PLEASE TAKE NOTE. ANYBODY CAN PICK WINNERS. ANYBODY. A GOAT IN A FIELD CAN PICK WINNERS.

The trick is to not only pick winners, but more importantly to get off of losers. Quirin taught me a lot about what does and does not work and how to take a scientific approach to horse racing.

Yes, there's a whole lot more to good handicapping than using the numbers in the past performances, but analyzing races is a strong tool and Quirin taught me a lot.

Why, if nothing else, Quirin enabled me to learn a lot about the pro's and con's of scientific handicapping.

Amazin

01-13-2003, 01:34 AM

SMF

Was that supposed to be a joke?I'm not pointing fingers ,just saying I was fingered,classified,pidgeonholed and put down for my views in the Iraq debate.I didn't find it amusing.I never pointed the finger back cause to me I would have been as pathetic as my accusers.However,I hold no grudges against them. Love should be your absolute ruler ,not hate.

smf

01-13-2003, 01:44 AM

Amazin,

Duly noted.

Lindsay

01-13-2003, 06:36 AM

Karlskorner wrote:

"Lindsay
I had a 2 page post written out to answer your above post, threw the whole thing out, what am I crazy wasting my time in your "sandbox""

Karlskorner,

Those who CAN make an intelligent reply, do. Those who CAN'T make an intelligent reply, reply as you just did. You had your shot. You have no reply. Fighting with someone who can fight back is not your game. You would rather do this:

Karlskorner wrote:

"Words such as Variant, Pars and Bias, all invented by book writers to add mystery to racing and they sure are keeping a lot of people busy"

If someone stands up for the "book writers," anonymous Karlskorner cries personal attack. PATHETIC.

hurrikane

01-13-2003, 06:59 AM

Hmm...seems to me Karl put up an angle. If you dont' like the angle don't play it. If you do, and some people here do and they do play it, then talk to Karl about it.

does'nt seem like a reason for personal attacks.

Derek2U

01-13-2003, 08:30 AM

I've been coming to PA for about 9 mos and I have concluded:
(a) This is the BEST room to discuss racing; (2) There are five times as many talented cappers here then elsewhere; (3) This
room is FAR MORE controversial- opionated (by far) than the
other rooms --- which are, by comparison, quite boring. I wouldn't
change a thing because this room is (always) potentially exciting.
The other rooms are comatose. Whenever large egos assemble
there's bound to be clashes --- in fact, how could it be otherwise?
So, guys like R. Gordon & Fastttt & Lindsay will continue to annoy
me because they NEVER dissect any race that hasn't already been run. Yet, they are sorta riveting because, I think, "could
they really have de-coded that factor?" hehe ... maybe its their
charm to taunt us like that, but I don't want them to go away and
needle some other room. This room is where it happens guys so
let's just keep talking & arguing & picking horses. Of course,
this is just my opinion, but let's face it, I'm hardly ever wrong,
except in doing that P4 (b4 the races are run, of course.)

ranchwest

01-13-2003, 09:16 AM

Derek2U,

<gulp> I've waited a long time to say this to you, good post. :)

Richard

01-13-2003, 07:38 PM

Well,if Bill Quirin no longer anually publishes his Turf Sire Statistics,does any one know of another good source of same?That's all I was ever interested in, fellow players.I honestly did'nt realize all this discussion would result(and most entertaining at that).And I never have any intention of being a troublemaker,here or elsewhere.
Richard

Lindsay

01-13-2003, 07:55 PM

Richard,

Thoro-Graph (www.thorograph.com) has the best sire stats I have ever seen. If you're willing to do some work, you can compile them for most sires at no charge by copying sheets from their Red Board Room. Or you can just buy the sheets and save the hassle. Also, Mike Helm's Sire Ratings are pretty good. He updates them every year.

LOU M.

01-13-2003, 08:17 PM

Lindsay, ditto Mike Helm, his $ 99.00 special is a great deal. All of the five booklets he sends you plus the updates will pay for themselves.Watch for his underlined ratings they are great.
www.cityminer.com

GR1@HTR

01-13-2003, 08:23 PM

I purchased the Helm book a few years ago. Yes it was good...but the bad part was what happens when you have a really good sire producing it's first crop...Come at the later months, Helm has no listing in his book where as other data sources such as BRIS, HDW, Bloodhorse, et all will have info...
BTW, anybody have any stats on how Tomlinsons Turf ratings do? As well as his mud stats?

LOU M.

01-14-2003, 08:27 AM

Helm sends two updates one in sept. and one in jan. in addition his booklets come out starting in april and one of them entitled freshman sire has 1st 2nd 3rd 4th crop ratings along with a text report of what they have done and what to expect. I recieve sire and dam stats with my HTR downloads that HDW updates on a daily basis and I use Helm for his underlined A and B stats and his usually on the money insights. Just my opinion.