the muli-leg ticket tough beat

[1st time lasix]

Anyone with exotic experience has suffered the tough beat...{the DQ, the photo, ticket error ..etc} I think the head bob loss in the final leg of a Pick Four or Pick Six is the worst of all. :bang: Perhaps it is because you could be sitting on a nice score....but i really think it is because of the length of time you have prior to the gate opening knowing you have the previous legs on one of your live tickets. Of course....hedging to some degree may be appropriate....but nothing hurts like just missing when you have been watching things unfold over several races.

[Fastracehorse]

I think trouble is worse than a head bob loss.

When your horse would have won clearly - but.......... whatever.

If you are having alot of tough beats then you are going to get your scores too.

fffastt

[alysheba88]

To be honest doesnt bother me that much and I never ever consider hedging for even a second.

I am not a robot. I mean I feel it when I could be sitting on a nice score and it doesnt happen. But I move on and dont second guess myself.

I only second guess myself if I didnt structure my ticket right to begin with. But once thats done, its done and I will deal with the consequences.

Cant be afraid to win and lose with these bets. More seem to be afraid of winning.

[Fastracehorse]

To be honest doesnt bother me that much and I never ever consider hedging for even a second.

I am not a robot. I mean I feel it when I could be sitting on a nice score and it doesnt happen. But I move on and dont second guess myself.

I only second guess myself if I didnt structure my ticket right to begin with. But once thats done, its done and I will deal with the consequences.

Cant be afraid to win and lose with these bets. More seem to be afraid of winning.

You wouldn't hedge even if it GUARANTEED you a profit??

Not rhetorical.

fffastt

[point given]

Anyone with exotic experience has suffered the tough beat...{the DQ, the photo, ticket error ..etc} I think the head bob loss in the final leg of a Pick Four or Pick Six is the worst of all. :bang: Perhaps it is because you could be sitting on a nice score....but i really think it is because of the length of time you have prior to the gate opening knowing you have the previous legs on one of your live tickets. Of course....hedging to some degree may be appropriate....but nothing hurts like just missing when you have been watching things unfold over several races.

Been 5 of 6 numerous times with small tickets. There were 2 that stick with me though when it was my last take out horse that beat me . The others i can laugh off as just getting good action on a small wager, and still making a tidy profit on it. Remember one time I made a $2 wager, and was live after the 4th leg. The next leg my feminine side took over,( handicapping be damned,) and I had a horse that had my name in it, the only loser of the 6. Got me major respect in the ol' otb after that though. BTW, horse that lost went on to be a good small stakes horse after that; while another one went on next out to win the Derby Trial, losing the allowance race by a nostril at the wire for me @ $30K ! What a game :lol:

[alysheba88]

You wouldn't hedge even if it GUARANTEED you a profit??

Not rhetorical.

fffastt

Nope, never.

I accept the consequences when I make the bet.

I see people do this with sports bets. They make a five team parlay, hit the first four and now want to "hedge" to "guarantee a profit".

My take would be play a four teamer then next time.

I made the initial bet with a positive expectation and on the verge of hitting it the last thing I want to do is get scared and run.

Will give you a real example. This is not gloating, just a real life example. Went to Monmouth on the Friday BC day. Was alive to pick 3 in final race. Had the 6 and 8 (Gotcha Gold and Corinithian). Had the pick 3 several times to those horses.

What did I do as far as betting that last race? I went in an boxed 6-8 in the exacta. Because I though the public had the odds way off, exacta was paying way more than it should have, thanks to Discreet Cat being way overbet. Again, not pounding my chest and bragging just giving an example.

It all worked out in this case. Hit the pick 3 and the exacta.

Certainly many cases where in same situation I didnt hit the last leg, but I know the wins more than make up for it

[TEJAS KIDD]

I agree with ALYSHEBA88 about not hedging in final legs. If I am 2 for 2 in the pick 3, 3 for 3 in the pick 4 or 5 for 5 in the Pick 6 then I am already having a good day. I always play the double before I play the Pick 3, and I'll always have the Pick 3 before I'm live in the pick 4 and if I'm 5 for 5 in the pick 6 then I have already rolled at least 3 pick 3's, so there is no reason to hedge. Of course, I wouldnt say never. If I were alive to a majority of the field and it were for a substantial amount, then, of course I would hedge some.

[ceejay]

I've had tough beats and good luck in the last leg. I remember getting my number put up by DQ of Powerscourt in the AP MIL. Even if he did interfere it was with the 3rd place finisher.

Bottom line: It's hard to be right 4 times in a row!

[1st time lasix]

I have come full turn on this issue. The is nothing wrong with "hedging" in some unique situations. Pros do it under certain conditions and it is a weapon in your arsenal. Suppose you come into the last leg of a pick four or six {when you are alive} and there is a significant possibility that a horse you don't have can upset the applecart ....preventing a big score. Say also that you want to recover part of your investment should you lose the original ticket? I once had an ego that said {"stand by your original choices no matter what"} but that is truly not intelligent if the possible "will pays" far exceed your original expectations. Never say never in this game. Nothing wrong with getting your original money back. You can stucture an exacta or trifecta at minimal cost using the non alive horses on top. Many times for financial bankroll reasons you may not have spread properly in that last leg in retrospect. There is a time for covered call writing or going to cash in the equity markets as well! Hope none of you have any "tough beats" this month!

[alysheba88]

It has nothing to do with ego. I would actually argue it is the ego that makes the argument for hedging- the "wanting to get your money back". Needing the gratification of getting that money back.

That money is gone the second you make the bet. Gone.

It is not coming back and no amount of "hedging" or whatever you want to call it will bring it back. It is gone forever. Gone.

I see this with the markets. Someone buys a stock at $70, it is now at $55 and the person holds on. Which may or may not be the right decision- depends on what leads you to the decision. If you would buy the stock today at $55 compared to any other potential investment out there then hell yes hold on or even better buy more. But if you are holding on "to break even" or "get your money back" that is insane logic. The market does not know or care what you paid for the stock.

Each decision is an individual one, and should not have anything to do with another unrealted one. When someone makes a pick 3 bet they presumably see an edge. After capturing the first two legs is that edge now gone? Is the original bet a bad idea now? Did it become a negative expecation bet because what you thought would happen (your horses winning the first two legs) actually happened? That makes no sense to me.

I dont make many friends with this one, but I chalk this up to fear of winning. Which is rampant in horse players.

I do realize I am in the minority on this and most gamblers strongly believe in hedging

[point given]

OK, how do y'all feel about an edge off ? or selling off a piece of your ticket for a price ? I havenot done this myself, but heard of the practice. How does one decide how much to sell a piece of the ticket for ? Say, your p6 will pay is $20,000. what would 10% go for ? $200 ? Is it worth it ? Always wondered about it .

[Fastracehorse]

I have come full turn on this issue. The is nothing wrong with "hedging" in some unique situations. Pros do it under certain conditions and it is a weapon in your arsenal. Suppose you come into the last leg of a pick four or six {when you are alive} and there is a significant possibility that a horse you don't have can upset the applecart ....preventing a big score. Say also that you want to recover part of your investment should you lose the original ticket? I once had an ego that said {"stand by your original choices no matter what"} but that is truly not intelligent if the possible "will pays" far exceed your original expectations. Never say never in this game. Nothing wrong with getting your original money back. You can stucture an exacta or trifecta at minimal cost using the non alive horses on top. Many times for financial bankroll reasons you may not have spread properly in that last leg in retrospect. There is a time for covered call writing or going to cash in the equity markets as well! Hope none of you have any "tough beats" this month!

There are situations when it is a must and others when it's a....don't hurt yourself too much.

And even a...........don't need to scrape the bottom-line.

But obviously, hedging is a big part of this game.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

That's up to U.............%'s that is.

fffastt

[alysheba88]

To me the pro-hedging crowd is the same as the Picking Winners crowd. You know the philosophy that the only value is the winner and everything else is just noise and how game is just about picking winners. Because it focuses all on the short term.

Looking to "guarantee a profit" is short term thinking.

Making bad value bets on horses you dont like to "lock in a profit" is not winning long term strategy.

Going back to the ego thing you have to be able to suffer through long droughts with some of these wagers and frankly some do not have the tempermnent and need the instant gratification or approval of a "winning" ticket

[Semipro]

To me the pro-hedging crowd is the same as the Picking Winners crowd. You know the philosophy that the only value is the winner and everything else is just noise and how game is just about picking winners. Because it focuses all on the short term.

Looking to "guarantee a profit" is short term thinking.

Making bad value bets on horses you dont like to "lock in a profit" is not winning long term strategy.

Going back to the ego thing you have to be able to suffer through long droughts with some of these wagers and frankly some do not have the tempermnent and need the instant gratification or approval of a "winning" ticketWinning is winning what difference does it make about long term or short guaranteed profit and why would you not take it?

[alysheba88]

Winning is winning what difference does it make about long term or short guaranteed profit and why would you not take it?

For one reason. The longer thing thinking is more profitable

[jma]

I have gone back and forth on this topic. I think you need to resist the urge to hedge when the return is small. If you need to bet another $200 to give yourself a strong chance of winning $300 then save your money. However, if you add another zero to the $300, then maybe it is worth it. If these are your two situations: if you hedge, you have a 50% chance of winning $8000, a 40% chance of winning $2000, and a 10% of losing everything; if you don't hedge, you have a 50% chance of winning $10,000 and a 50% chance of winning losing everything...well, I think it's smart to lock in that 90% chance at a profit. It also depends if things have changed since the start of the bet. Did showers move in and now the track is wet? Did a race come off the turf? Since none of us are perfect, did you overlook one horse that now seems a legitimate threat to your bet? If so, then these situations would be good ones to consider hedging.

[1st time lasix]

Absolutely...cooler minds must figure out handicapping probablities and will pays.....as i said: "never say never." There are certain times and in certain situations where a small hedge in the last leg against a very significant $$$ pick four or pick six score is warrented. I don't particualrly care that someone else would "never do it" It makes me think they haven't been in that situation enough times to review all the options. I play my own personal bankroll to win over the long term. As an exotic player I can stomach a longer drought between signers....and I don't buy the argument that a hegdge is used by someone who is "afraid to win" Each scenario is unique. Winner players have learned over the years to be flexible. I still think that a head bob loss in the final leg of one of these multi-race tickets where you have beaten some public favorites already is an emotional killer!

[alysheba88]

Absolutely...cooler minds must figure out handicapping probablities and will pays.....as i said: "never say never." There are certain times and in certain situations where a small hedge in the last leg against a very significant $$$ pick four or pick six score is warrented. I don't particualrly care that someone else would "never do it" It makes me think they haven't been in that situation enough times to review all the options. I play my own personal bankroll to win over the long term. As an exotic player I can stomach a longer drought between signers....and I don't buy the argument that a hegdge is used by someone who is "afraid to win" Each scenario is unique. Winner players have learned over the years to be flexible. I still think that a head bob loss in the final leg of one of these multi-race tickets where you have beaten some public favorites already is an emotional killer!


I enjoy the discussion on this and apologize if I have rubbed anyone the wrong way. At the same time, think I need to respond to a few of your comments.

"It makes me think they havent been in that situation enough times to review all the options"

Is that really fair? How do you know how many times I have been in that situation and is there any other possibility to me having the opinion that I do other than "not being in the situation enough times"

"Winning players have learned to be flexible"

I agree, you seem to be suggesting I am not a winning player because I say never in this one betting situation. I totally believe in being flexible about a variety of things, but in other cases not so. If there is a pronounced speed bias I tell you I am not going to be a proponent of flexibiilty on that day

Lastly, in regard to the emotional killer, I am saying it isnt. I am human sure I think about what a nice score it would be. But its not an emotional killer because to make that bet you accept up front that can happen. I am also fortunate in that I dont need the score to eat or feed my family. That makes a difference I am sure. Only times I get mad at the track is when I make a bad bet. Not a head bob or DQ or anything like that. Well maybe Jamie Spencer rides get me mad too, lol.

The amount spent hedging to me is not worth it in the end. It gives the illusion of comfort with its "guarantees", but in the end dont think it adds anything to the bottom line but rather subtracts from it.

[alysheba88]

The other thing I meant to mention and one poster alluded to is each race is its own separate set of circumstances.

If I play a pick 3 or 4 it doesnt mean I dont also bet those races.

If the last race comes along and I am alive to the pick 3 or 4 I just handicap and bet the race the same exact way I would if I wasnt alive. It is completely separate. If there are horses who have value that I didnt anticipate I will include them in any exacta or tri bets I make. If horses I am alive to dont offer value in the other pools I wont include them. But i dont consider this hedging. Because the decision is being made irrespective of being alive or not. If horses I am alive to offer great value I will keep betting them in those other pools regardless of being alive or not

[Fastracehorse]

The other thing I meant to mention and one poster alluded to is each race is its own separate set of circumstances.

If I play a pick 3 or 4 it doesnt mean I dont also bet those races.

If the last race comes along and I am alive to the pick 3 or 4 I just handicap and bet the race the same exact way I would if I wasnt alive. It is completely separate. If there are horses who have value that I didnt anticipate I will include them in any exacta or tri bets I make. If horses I am alive to dont offer value in the other pools I wont include them. But i dont consider this hedging. Because the decision is being made irrespective of being alive or not. If horses I am alive to offer great value I will keep betting them in those other pools regardless of being alive or not

You are hedging and you don't even realize it.

fffastt