Sunday Late 4 @ Churchill

[bellsbendboy]

Delicious sequence served up in bright sunny weather with a couple of six figure addd money events.

7) Would love to redraw this heat but... YATE'S BLACK CAT has had his share of bad breaks yet seems likely here. By the one dimensional (turf only) Black Minnaloushe this 4yo colt won his first and second level allowances before shipping north to contest the Grade III Poker. Alas the rail was up and Rojas made two different moves while well wide. Brought back at todays class, at Saratoga, every trip capper on the planet bet this one to favoritism. Bad post, the rail way out, two Godolphin runners and picking up TEN pounds did not sway those chaps. Last was too far and Romans puts in three solid works and gives the reins to Robby, the one to beat. Also HEAT OF THE NIGHT who was a graded winner in South Africa before winning this class (Florida does not use the winners share in there nonwinners) after 53 weeks on the bench. Team TAP then headed west to the crescent city for the Grade II Muniz where this one came unglued and went to the sidelines again. Steady works preceded his well out of class late August second to the talented Karelian before another well out of class placing at Keeneland. Very unusual for this barn to bump runners up without reason! Then he was entered here Friday in another out of class spot won by stablemate Terrific Storm. By any measure this one figures as well no matter how enigmatic the pp's. Also Silver Whistle who drops as well, gets Kent and will sit a good seat off Waynes' speed.

VERY SUBTLE

Although one of two non stake winners G CITY GAL may be the class of this bunch. Team TAP again EQ 4yo has been right there a number of times against graded company including a close third to River' and Shaggy in the Grade I Calder heat and either of them would smoke these. Not much speed in here, Rene on the catch mount and an unusual, no work pattern makes this one as good as any. Also EXCELLERENT who has come off the shelf with two excellerent efforts for Billy C. perhaps the most underrated conditioner in the midwest. AND SUGAR SWIRL who would be no surprise for Frank and Frankel.

CHEROKEE RUN

This five panel dash is called a handicap yet run under allowance/conditions. Cappers who pay attention to weight always seem better at the end of the day and there is a tremendous shift in poundage here. Last years edition was won by the rapid filly Unbridled Sidney with SMART ENOUGH (under 116) a very good second. ATTICUS KRISTY (124) was outrun. Today, Smart Enough totes 124 and 'Kristy 118!! Both are very accomplished and can win here. Also the nearly white FORT PRADO whose last would be good enough.

Caboose

Although there are a couple of interesting senior citizens in here that seem up against it yet have a chance; the balance is all sophomores. Cappers know that late in the year a 3yo must move forward (run faster than it previously has) to win any non claiming race and FIVE STAR DAWN seems the most likely. Out of a 25 year old mare that has tossed ten who have had their picture taken this 170K yearling was second twice this class before going on the shelf. Brought back nicely by the ever solid McGee who gelded him before running a very good third cross state fifteen days ago. That race featured a very fast last quarter and this one finished well. Nice halloween half mile makes this one the days best, so we will single and hope the three quarter brother to First Samurai who Leparoux leaves for won't get to us. Playing 1,9,11 / 1,2,7 / 4,7,8 / 2 Good capping, may play election day. BBB

[jackmc]

....... solid analysis & hit ..... congrats ....... gl, jmc

[bellsbendboy]

While we are certainly biased the November racing at Churchill can be spectacular. Full fields are the norm and there is generally more opportunity than either coast offers.

Yesterday leg one was a nine panel optional claimer and Yates Black Cat ($11.80) destroyed his field. Horizontal players are oft times reluctant to single in the opening leg of a sequence and we added two others, although the Romans 4yo was our top pick. Taking the eight, ten and eleven post positions in a turf heat will tear up a lot of tickets as the chart indicates 'Yates was; "seven wide entering first turn, four wide down the backstretch, then seven or eight wide entering the stretch" but when Robby asked him, the race was for place in a matter of strides. Cecil and Calvin clunked up for second with the perfect trip Electric Chant and our other two ran very poorly. Yates is a big long striding sort that had had some bad luck with the turf rails. He came off the shelf with a win in his 2007 debut, then was beat in a picture with the rail OUT! In his next he won his 2X handily before heading to the Poker, before being WAY OVERBET at Saratoga this class. This is a very solid pattern that many cappers exploit. A deep closer on turf that catches a series of bad rails then gets the shrubs"! This tenet is also somewhat pace proof as yesterdays fractions were described in the charts as a "dawdling pace" yet the horses that were 8,9,10 and last going in to the far turn, ended up first second third and fourth!! The DRF does NOT directly print turf rail data, but, there are THREE different clues IN the past performances that indicate if it was up or not and sharp cappers can capitalize.

VERY SUBTLE

While the odds board indicated that Sugar Swirl ($3.60) was a standout we thought that this was a good race to spread and look for a number, as it's very rare that a six furlong sprint is won by a horse that is winless at the distance! Frankel's filly aired and the Pletcher filly stopped badly. Handicappers relish change and this was two races in a row that Pletcher's horses were oddly prepped and we will now discount his horses who come in to their races "out of character". EXCELLERENT was on the ticket but hit the gate and could only manage a mild gain at some fifteen to one. On an odd note yesterday both Sugar Shake and Sugar Swirl won stakes! Both are trained by Frankel, are Stronach homebreds and sport similar records...'Swirl 16-6-3-4 for some $400K in earnings and Shake 15-6-3-5 for some $400K as well!

CHEROKEE RUN

SMART ENOUGH ($5.60) figured a perfect trip, got it, and won well clear for Decarlo making the weight question mighty moot. Winning for the tenth time in fifteen outs with his only loss at less than six panels on turf, in last years rendition. We added "Kristy and 'Prado but those veterans making start number 39 and 38 respectfully had no answer checking in third and fourth. The weight and the fact that it was Smart Enough's third race in less than a month caused us to again spread but after the fact this one is a nasty turf sprinter. Fisher says he will be off til next year...no wonder why he bats at a high average (28% winners)

Nightcap.

Somewhat surprised that FIVE STAR DAWN floated up to pay $11.20 as his races were just faster than the others. As noted he was gelded prior to his last and would almost surely move forward. Bejarano as good as there is when on the best horse and this JMS charge held off favored Vicarian who is now one for twelve with a half dozen placings. The four comes back a six pack short of $200 for a buck with the winners returning $11.80 $3.60 $5.60 and $11.20. Anotherwords there was almost 600 winning tickets, should be less Election day! BBB