Churchill Downs - 11/4 Sunday

[jonnielu]

Today will wrap up a good week at Churchill. I'll figure out where to start the week in the morning. These are listed in the order of ability as usual.

1st - 5, 4, 6 - I've got some readiness questions here, I'll be throwing the eyeball on #5 and #6.

2nd - 7, 4, 3, 11

3rd - 11, 9, 5, 12, 1, 6 - I've got #1 and #9 down for a physical, if they flunk, while #13 and #15 scratch, and #5 doesn't beg, I'll take a hot dog.

4th - 8, 6, 1, 4 (7) - I know its only the fourth, but I just don't trust the #7 here.

5th - 8, 2, 4, 1, 11 - #2 might have an edge in Post Position here.

6th - 1, 9, 6, 4, 11, 7 - I'll be at the paddock trying to figure out why #7 is 50 - 1 ML.

7th - 10, 7, 11, 3, 4, 6 - What could be better then a seventh race where the #7 threatens to go all the way, at 10-1, with the other big threat to do the same, at 15-1, outside of him and slower at 9f, on the lawn.

8th - 4, 7, 3 (6, 5, 1)

9th - 4, 3, 6, 7, 8

10th - 2, 6, 1, 4, 9, 11

[jonnielu]

Today will wrap up a good week at Churchill. I'll figure out where to start the week in the morning. These are listed in the order of ability as usual.


Instead, I might spend the week going over this past week, adding my ratings to this, and seeing what would happen considering the ratings them selves with a few simple, basic handicapping criteria.


1st 6f- 5 (282), 4 (306), 6 (362) - I've got some readiness questions here, I'll be throwing the eyeball on #5 and #6.

The first timers here, #2 (172) and #3 (164) are notable, being over 150.
Neither #5 nor #6 have been doing the kind of work that would suggest they are ready for a top effort after long layoffs. #4 (306) would be the only one of the bunch that would figure to be able and ready for a winning effort.

Because of the small and weak field, I would be inclined to include both first timers #2 (172) and #3 (164) in any exotics.
Results:

4 (306) Silver Light
5 (282) Hold Your Ground
6 (362) Allensworth
3 (164) Badger Barry
7 (365) Shortcake
8 (368) Corbster
2 (172) Volcanic Ice
1 (509) Gilded Sundancer

4 Silver Light 7.20 3.20 2.20 / $2 Exacta $19.20 4-5
5 Hold Your Ground 3.40 2.40 / $2 Superfecta $276.40 4-5-6-3
6 Allensworth 4.80 / $2 Trifecta $99.00 4-5-6


2nd 8.5f - 7 (188scr), 4 ( 174 ), 3 ( 152 ), 11 (196)


A little consideration to basics, early speed, dates, works... would give this order:

3 ( 152 ), 11 ( 196 ), 2 ( 199 ), 6 ( 212 )

Results:
3 ( 152 ) Scat Cat Jamey
11 ( 196 ) Rectory Hill
2 ( 199 )Charlie
6 ( 196 )E A Lockwood
4 ( 174 )Cart'sforme
8 ( 215 )Dedirect
9 ( 223 )Tipperary
10 ( 202 )Payment in Kind


3 Scat Cat Jamey 3.60 2.40 2.20 / $2 Daily Double $13.60 4-3
11 Rectory Hill 4.40 3.00 / $2 Exacta $12.40 3-11
2 Charlie V. 5.20 / $2 Superfecta $493.40 3-11-2-6
/$2 Trifecta $73.20 3-11-2


3rd - 11 (76), 9 (82), 5 (114), 12 (129), 1 (122), 6 (112) - I've got #1 and #9 down for a physical, if they flunk, and #5 doesn't beg, I'll take a hot dog.


On the other hand, with four first timers that are about as solid as the rest, this could be a chaos race to take advantage of by taking the top 3 ability and the firsters. One could be tempted, if one is accurate on overall ability. A seven horse box could make sense here.
Results:

6 (112) Thirteen Moons
10 (135) Scolara
11 (76) Palace Secret
7 (160) Rareville
8 (139) Victoria Bay
1 (122) Night Break
9 (82) Prairie Melody
4 (121) Ifonlyyoubelieve
5 (114) French Song
12 (129) Sweet Hennessy
3 (156) Emily D.

6 Thirteen Moons 30.00 12.20 6.60 / $2 Pick 3 $222.20 4-3-6
10 Scolara 8.40 5.80 / $2 Daily Double $59.60 3-6
11 Palace Secret 2.80 / $2 Exacta $246.00 6 - 10
/ $2 Superfecta $17,495.80 6-10-11-7
/ $2 Trifecta $719.40 6-10-11




There will be more on this card tomorrow.

[jonnielu]

Once again, I'll just add consideration for simple/basic criteria, early speed, distance, dates, class level, and works.


4th 6f - 8 (319), 6 (352), 1 (346), 4 (445) (7(377)) - I know its only the fourth, but I just don't trust the #7 here.

With consideration to early speed, dates, distance, and class level. The lineup would look like this: 1 (346), 3 (367), 7(377), 8 (319), 6 (352), with several reasons to move the #8 and #6 back.
Results:
1 (346) I've Been Humbled
3 (367) Celestial Woods
7 (377) Chippewa Court
8 (319) Miss Ann H
6 (352) Vibs
5 (406) Thunder and Belle
4 (445) Donamour
2 (391) Stormy Arctic

1 I've Been Humbled 11.20 5.60 4.60
3 Celestial Woods 10.00 7.60
7 Chippewa Court 5.40

$2 Exacta $61.40 1-3
$2 Superfecta $1,391.40 1-3-7-8
$2 Trifecta $481.60 1-3-7


5th 6.5f - 8 (507), 2 (518), 4 (482), 1 (489), 11 (488) - #2 might have an edge in Post Position here.

Just a glance shows #8 to have a huge early speed advantage, and #2 to have none in comparison. Only one first timer #5, but she is at (167), if we toss #2 for #5, the lineup looks like this: 8 (507), 5 (167), 4 (482), 1 (489), 11 (488)
Result:

8 (507) Remember Shirley
5 (167) St Lo
4 (482) Crafty Role
1 (489) Siddhartha
7 (523) Fantastic Dancer
12 (535) Bluestocking
11 (488) Running for Love
10 (568) Out Cold
2 (518) Upon a Star
3 (568) Staffette
9 (514) Gate House
6 (616) Tara Brooch

8 Remember Shirley 9.00 5.60 3.20
5 St Lo 31.00 13.60
4 Crafty Role 2.60

$2 Exacta $239.60 8-5
$2 Superfecta $4,049.80 8-5-4-1
$2 Trifecta $1,154.80 8-5-4


6th 6f - 1 (225), 9 (275), 6 (353), 4 (367), 11 (396), 7 (323) - I'll be at the paddock trying to figure out why #7 is 50 - 1 ML.

Again, with consideration to early speed, and not much else, this one would line up this way: 11 (396), 1 (225), 9 (275), 7 (323), 10 (333), 8 (339)
Results:
11 (396) Launched Missile
10 (333) Please Include Me
8 (339) John's Road
1 (225) Rallywithclass
7 (323) Arc Light
5 (346) Lightning Road
9 (275) Cat On the Line
12 (373) Country Manners
2 (359) Moo Man
4 (367) Western Bandit
6 (353) Robyn's Dream
3 (343) Chaffee John

11 Launched Missile 28.60 13.80 9.80
10 Please Include Me 4.80 3.60
8 John's Road 6.80

$2 Exacta $166.40 11-10
$2 Superfecta $10,928.40 10-11-8-1
$2 Trifecta $1,631.60 11-10-8


7th 9fT - 10 (157), 7 (161), 11 (164), 3 (164), 4 (174), 6 (175) - What could be better then a seventh race where the #7 threatens to go all the way, at 10-1, with the other big threat to do the same, at 15-1, outside of him and slower at 9f, on the lawn.

Since this is a 9f race, I will change-up the simple criteria by substituting stamina, for early speed. So, let's simply toss everybody that is going longer today except any that have strong stretch moves in a shorter last, like #4 (174). Heres how that would line up: 1 (156), 3 (164), 5 (169), 9 (170), 4 (174), 2 (176)
Results:
1 (156) Yate's Black Cat
4 (174) Electric Chant
2 (176) Love Dubai
5 (169) Lord Carmen
9 (170) Silver Whistle
7 (161) Flashstorm
8 (196) Maroon (DH)
3 (164) Kentucky Man (DH)
11 (164) Heat of the Night
6 (175)Cat Shaker
10 (157) Bully for You

1 Yate's Black Cat 11.80 6.60 5.20
4 Electric Chant 6.60 5.40
2 Love Dubai 8.20

$2 Exacta $132.00 1-4
$2 Superfecta $14,615.20 1-4-2-5
$2 Trifecta $1,883.40 1-4-2


8th 6f- 4 (282scr), 7 (275), 3 (307) (6 (294), 5 (294), 1 (252))

A quick 6, so I go back to the early speed for the basic simple criteria, (6, 5, 1) and #2 (335) don't have much and could be a little stale. #1 get's a pass on overall ability. #7 has enough early speed, #3 has more, but not enough for the win over #7, same with #9 wuo matches #7. It lays out like this: 7 (275), 1 (252), 3 (307), 9 (339)
Result:

7 (275) Sugar Swirl
9 (339) Generosity
3 (307) Country Diva
1 (252) Excellerant
5 (294) Humorous Gal
6 (294) Adhrhythm
8 (339) Morner
2 (335) G City Gal

7 Sugar Swirl 3.60 2.60 2.10
9 Generosity 7.60 4.40
3 Country Diva 4.20

$2 Exacta $38.00 7-9
$2 Superfecta $1,066.40 7-9-3-1
$2 Trifecta $223.20 7-9-3


9th 5fT - 4 (192), 3 (197), 6 (235), 7 (235), 8 (233)

Since this is simply a dash, consideration of early speed as a high impact factor is in order, that and an eye to distance would bring a lineup like this: 7 (235), 4 (192), 2 (258), 8(233)
#6, #1, #3, #5 are tossed for lack of early speed and overall ability considering the distance. #7 can overtake #2's early speed, #4 and #8, maybe.
Result:
7 (235) Smart Enough
2 (258) Chihulykee
4 (192) Fort Prado
8 (233) Atticus Kristy
3 (197) Raedonald
1 (252) Ridge Runner
6 (235) Man of Danger
5 (255) Morada Key

7 Smart Enough 5.20 3.00 2.40
2 Chihulykee 5.40 3.40
4 Fort Prado 2.80

$2 Exacta $28.60 7-2
$2 Superfecta $240.00 7-2-4-8
$2 Trifecta $77.00 7-2-4


10th 6.5f - 2 (286), 6 (293), 1 (302), 4 (303), 9 (306), 11 (297)

After kicking #5, #9, #4, and #10 for questionable fitness, and figuring that #11 can't rocket through the stretch like #2 can, the lineup looks like this:

2 (286), 6 (293), 1 (302), 11 (297)
Results:
2 Five Star Dawn
6 Vicarian 3 G LA
1 Banbury Cross
5 Kenai River (DH)
11 Prove Yourself (DH)
9 Blackfoot Trail
8 Eastmont
10 Cool Hero
7 Axiom
4 Cape Bird
12 Action Now
3 Mr. Goodkat

2 Five Star Dawn 11.20 4.80 3.80
6 Vicarian 4.00 3.20
1 Banbury Cross 5.20

$2 Exacta $43.40 2-6
$2 Superfecta $547.40 2-6-1-11
$2 Trifecta $180.60 2-6-1




There are only two questions that need accurate answers:

What is the horses ability to run today's distance?

Is the horse in condition to run to that ability today?

To get too caught up in other things is just the cause of confusion.