Pacelines

[Kiwi]

Thanks to those who responded to my original post and I apologies for the delayed response but have been moving into a new house over the last 7 days and haven't been near the computer.
Any way in reply to 'Tom' ,no I cant get any fractional times other than par final times,so its tricky but what I have been trying to do is work out the suitable running style for the horses in any given race I choose to bet on.
I only bet on the good tracks and over the summer here in New Zealand which starts around October and will probably end around the end of this month half way through next.
I find that if I can work out where the horse will be positioned coming around the final bend and coupling that with its final par time figure has been giving me some good priced winners .
The way I've been selecting the most suitable running style for a horse is getting its best final adjusted time and matching that with its running style for that particular race,I must admit that sounds a bit rough but its been working.
I've been looking as far back as around 11 months in a horses previous history to select its best race.
There is no information on pace that is available in this country we are lacking in quality information unfortunately.
Speed and class ratings are available.
In reply to G1,There has been no reported cases of foot and mouth in New Zealand ,its mostly in Europe,
regards,
Kiwi

[Dave Schwartz]

Kiwi,

Do you use "simulated pace?"

In a country without pace times I would think this would provide a monstrous advantage.

[Kiwi]

Dave what is 'simulated pace'?

[Dave Schwartz]

Kiwi,

I didn't mean to tease you, but I have injured myself and cannot type.

I will try to explain tomorrow.

[GR1@HTR]

Dave,

Next time use Vaseline...Much safer...

Just kidding, couldn't resist. Seriously, I hope that you have not suffered a serious injury. Hope all is well.

Best wishes.

[Dave Schwartz]

GR1,

You jerk. <G>

Actually, I did one of the dumbest things I can ever recall doing... I slammed my thumb in a car door.

Hey, there's an idea for an interesting thread... "What's the dumbest thing you ever did?"

LOL - Bet half the guys would start with something like... It was a rainy day at Belmont...

[Dave Schwartz]

Kiwi,

I am still typing slow, but here goes.

Simulated pace is a very simple concept (which I did not invent). Essentially, it says that if the winner of the race runs a "96" (or whatever) then the pace of the race is 96 as well.

If the pace of the race is a 96, a horse 2.5 lengths behind would get a 93.5.

Suddenly it becomes very easy to do pace ratings, even at multiple calls.

Are they as accurate as "real" pace? No, but they are remarkably accurate anyway. They also add "running style" to the equation, something that is missing from "conventional" pace handicapping.

By the way, about a decade ago a very bright handicapper named Barry Burkann applied a similar concept using class levels and beaten lengths. I thought it was quite ingenious.


Hope this helps.

[Kiwi]

Hi Dave,sorry to hear about your injury'
as far as simulated Pace goes I was actually doing something very similar but was giving the fastest horse a score of 0 then working my way back through the field
based on times adjusted to the distance of the race plus
using running styles,and then working out which horse is the likely bet.

I had a feeling someone else around the world somewhere would be doing something similar,but haven't heard of anyone doing that in this country. I like what you suggested though because that will tell me when I'm going over my data what the fastest horse was capable of and make use of that fact somehow,
regards,
KIWI

[Slider]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Kiwi,

I am still typing slow, but here goes.

Simulated pace is a very simple concept (which I did not invent). Essentially, it says that if the winner of the race runs a "96" (or whatever) then the pace of the race is 96 as well.

If the pace of the race is a 96, a horse 2.5 lengths behind would get a 93.5.

Suddenly it becomes very easy to do pace ratings, even at multiple calls.

Are they as accurate as "real" pace? No, but they are remarkably accurate anyway. They also add "running style" to the equation, something that is missing from "conventional" pace handicapping.


Can you explain a little more? If the winner runs a 79 ( 10 lengths behind the leader) at 1st call and 85 at 2nd call (6 lengths behind the same leader) and 90 finish (1 length ahead of the previous leader who almost went wire to wire) what is the simulated pace at 1st call and 2nd call and finish of the winner and the beaten leader?

Take care of those hands.

Slider

[Dave Schwartz]

Kiwi,

The cool thing about simulated pace is that you can create all the "conventional" ratings with it.

For example, you have the following for a 6-fur race:


FT=104
EP=99

Total Energy= 104 x 6 = 624 (6=fur)

99 x 4 = 396 (subtract EP x 4fur)

StretchRun= (624 - 396) / 2fur = 114

In other words, this horse ran:

EP=99
SR=114
FT=104

SP= (EP x SR x SR)^.33
FW=(EP x EP x SR)^.33

You are only limited by your imagination.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Slider


Can you explain a little more? If the winner runs a 79 ( 10 lengths behind the leader) at 1st call and 85 at 2nd call (6 lengths behind the same leader) and 90 finish (1 length ahead of the previous leader who almost went wire to wire) what is the simulated pace at 1st call and 2nd call and finish of the winner and the beaten leader?

Take care of those hands.

Slider

The way I have used simulated pace for your example would be that the final rating of the pace of the race was a 90, so the 1st call pace rating and the 2nd call pace ratings are both 90 also. So your horse was back 10 and 6, giving him pace ratings of 80 - 84 - 90.
What I then did (do) is make an early and late pace rating- EP=80+84 = 164. LP = 84+90 = 174, so the horse ran 164-174 with a +10 differential (I model the differenctial much like the process described in Pace Makes the Race. When I use BRIS of TSN, I use this same procedure with their pace ratings. Like Dave says, use your imagination.
I like simulated pace when I have a form and a pencil and not much time, like when traveling. I use the DRF SR+TV as a basis for the ratings, for example, if a horse is beaten 5 lengths and the SR/TV is 78-17, then the pace of race final rating is 78+17+5=100, and the pace of race ratings are 100-100-100. For all the bad-talk about the DRF SR-TV, I still find it very usable, and sometimes better than anything else-maybe because not many others are using it anymore, so it now has value.
Tom

[Tom]

There is a godd example of how easy simulated pace is to use at SA yesterday-in the 5th

Real Promise S 93/97
Sturge Weber NF
Re Vote P 97/99
Osho Togo E 99/99
Glittering.... EP 97/97
Above the Rainbow E 102/102
Sycuan E 94/93
Little Chilly S 94/95


I used the DRF SR+TV to get the speed rating and simulated the pace off of that.


Above the Rainbow is the clear fig standout-but....no race scince November and going up in class, but he should be fast enough to kill Isho Togo's chances.
That leaves Re Vote, Glittering..., and Real Paranoid.
Revote Won and paid $8.00, Glittering ran second and the exacta paid $31.00, quinella paid $40.00.
Not to try to red board, I actually bet this race at the track. I had to go there after work to cash in my 2000 tickets before they expired today and the money went to NYS. I got there with 12 minutwes to post, and handicapped this race in 4 minutes.
I am only reiterating Dave's comments of how good this approach works-and how easy it is. I will use this method when I am playing several tracks at once and don't have my own variants, etc. to use-the idea is to mass-handicap. At lot of times I am on the road for work and find a track or OTB to stop in at unexpectedly-I buy a form and use my pencil and do good enough.
tom