KEY HORSE CRITERIA....

[orrug2k]

OKAY, LETS POST KEY HORSE CRITERIA FOR ANY MULTI RACE WAGER..

I THINK IM GOING WITH.... MUST HAVE A RACE OVER THE TRACK AT THIS DISTANCE AND FINISHED 1,2.
NO TRAINER CHANGE
LAYOFF 15 TO 30

ANY OTHERS....

[Tremendous Machine]

I just don't have hard and fast criteria for things like that. I keyed Curlin in the BC but would not have if I had used the criteria you stated. Curlin would have "qualified" if he had finished a nose closer to AGS in his last start. Then, he would have finished a nose in front of HS instead of behind. Tossing him over that nose would have been a huge mistake.

It's like the Barbaro Derby. He had three prep races in 2006, but one of them was Jan 1st. If he had started a day earlier, then this year no one would have been talking about Street Sense only having 2 preps. That one day hardly mattered, but if someone was sticking to a "criteria" they might have had to toss him.

[Tremendous Machine]

Well, I meant Curlin's last start at this track. It was at Monmouth that he got beaten by HS and AGS.

[alysheba88]

OKAY, LETS POST KEY HORSE CRITERIA FOR ANY MULTI RACE WAGER..

I THINK IM GOING WITH.... MUST HAVE A RACE OVER THE TRACK AT THIS DISTANCE AND FINISHED 1,2.
NO TRAINER CHANGE
LAYOFF 15 TO 30

ANY OTHERS....

Prefer the less obvious

[ceejay]

My criteria is value-based. "A" choices are the most likely overlays. Curlin @ 4-1 would have been one. I wrongly expected him @ 5/2-3/1. You must handicap the public to be successful in the "pick" pools.

If there's a captain obvious single I'll pass the Pick 3. Usually P4 too unless I find a good value play in the sequence.

[ceejay]

Curlin @ 4-1 would have been one. I wrongly expected him @ 5/2-3/1.On second thought Curlin may have been underlaid to 4-1 in the P4 pool. Many may have followed Crist's advice to Cover all bases by using four Classic favorites (http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=89791)

[racefinder2]

a likely winner thats not the favorite. That makes perfect sense to me.

Good point about 'using all 4 favorites' theme. A lot of bets get generated out of hype or someones widespread public opinion.

A lot of good points about these silly 'system criteria' that eliminate horses with 'only 2 prep races'(for the Ky Dby), dont start as a 2yo(what about a start on Jan 1-2 or something), or 'dosage of 4.01', or any other mechanical type rules, that inevitably get blown to pieces as the races get run. Another(stupid)one I kept hearing was that(for the Dby)the horse couldnt be bred through to Mr Prospector on the Dams side. This is the reality that happens when people sit around, after the fact, and try to attribute a result to some set of factors that may or may not be relevant at all.
I am of the opinion that these 'system rules' are really just a crutch for not taking responsiblity for generating your own opinion and bets, and standing by them. You can always blame the 'system' for losing, then go on scratching your head......

A one line retort to any sort of mechanical system or rules, at least for actual betting for profit(rather than testing a theory, which might be useful), is that
"Systems only work when theyre working".

[advancedcapper]

In any race the key horse is the one who can compete at the pace offered in the class suggested by that pace and at the distanc the pace will allow him to run. 1-1, 2-1, 10-1. What's the difference if they lose or win? Simply throwing out a 1/2 because of perceived "value" is not necessisarilly right if that horse beats you and causes your whole wager to go down the tubes. A winner is a winner is a winner, no matter what the odds. The only way to not let the favorite beat you when he lays over the field is to SKIP THE RACE. But then again, even 1/5 is a 20% profit, isn't it?

I've found that when you get to the level of picking winners at a high rate, the "value" factor isn't no where near as much against you as if you are still in the 25% range in handicapping. The choices become better, as you have a higher confindence and knowledge of making a winning wager.

ac

[bobphilo]

In any race the key horse is the one who can compete at the pace offered in the class suggested by that pace and at the distanc the pace will allow him to run. 1-1, 2-1, 10-1. What's the difference if they lose or win? Simply throwing out a 1/2 because of perceived "value" is not necessisarilly right if that horse beats you and causes your whole wager to go down the tubes. A winner is a winner is a winner, no matter what the odds. The only way to not let the favorite beat you when he lays over the field is to SKIP THE RACE. But then again, even 1/5 is a 20% profit, isn't it?

I've found that when you get to the level of picking winners at a high rate, the "value" factor isn't no where near as much against you as if you are still in the 25% range in handicapping. The choices become better, as you have a higher confindence and knowledge of making a winning wager.


ac

Advance, I agree completely. Odds in very difficult high paying wagers like the Pic 6 are much less important than in other wagers. By far the most difficult thing to do in Pic 6's is to get the winners. It's insane to have all your other picks go down the tubes and miss a huge payoff by trying to beat a solid low price horse.
One of points of exotic wagering, in general, is to be able to make a profit when the race has a solid choice that pays too little in straight bets. This is true in spades in the Pic 6.


Bob

[advancedcapper]

I would be very interested to hear what you guys have to say about multi-race bets. I have been doing this for a living a long time now and am very old school. I still rarely go for multi race wagers. With the percentage of winners I maintain, I would probably be better with pick 3's and pick 4's and pick 6's.

I just never took the time to learn the best way to go. I would just go 5x5x3 if I though it would guarantee me a win, but I know that isn't the correct way. Especially with pick 6's. I am sometimes sure that 5x5x5x2x1x8, for instance is a sure bet, but won't Go the $2000 because I know there is a better way. Steve Crist has a method, but I never bothered to look into it. If you or others have a way to maximize the multi-race wagers, i'd be very happy to hear them.

I make my big scores in superfectas and trifectas. I rarely play exactas. I don't "cover" my bets either, I simply pick a race and play the combos 5, 10 or more times. A nose loss is a killer, but it happens a lot. That is the price you pay for both ego and playing one way. I want ALL tickets in my pocket to have a chance to win and not HALF. This is the reason I stay away from the multi-race plays. Too many losing combos to invest the money, I think. In know I am wrong, but oh well. I do play win/place on every race, as this is the best backup available.

My best plays of the day on Breeders Cup day(s) were Nownownow, Coco Belle, Slew's Tiznow, Hystericalady & Lawyer Ron.

I missed the tri and super on Nownownow when the #5 got beat at the wire for third. ($5 tri & super) $200 win/place

I hit the tri on the Coco Belle race for $3, but missed the super when the #1 got beat at the wire for third. ($3 super) $200 win/place

Slew's Tiznow scratched.

I had Hystericalady with Ginger Punch one way on every ticket for $10 tri's and super's , but only came away with a $20 exacta box and a nice win/place play on Hystericalady $500 win/place

Lawyer Ron was a tough loss, as he didn't take to the slop at all and backed up after being in a winning position. I lost a $1000 win/place bet as well as a Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun $30 tri & super wheel. ($1260)

[JimG]

OKAY, LETS POST KEY HORSE CRITERIA FOR ANY MULTI RACE WAGER..

I THINK IM GOING WITH.... MUST HAVE A RACE OVER THE TRACK AT THIS DISTANCE AND FINISHED 1,2.
NO TRAINER CHANGE
LAYOFF 15 TO 30

ANY OTHERS....

The favorite must be vulnerable and your key horse must not be the likely favorite.

[advancedcapper]

I don't know if I would mind having a favorite in the play. A winner is a winner. I would use MY value on the horse and not the general publics value when it comes to handicapping.

[OTM Al]

Key horse can certainly be a favorite. You can still get some real nice payoffs if you think a 30-1 has a good chance of coming in second, and things aren't so bad if the 2nd and 3rd odds horses don't come in second (I'm thinking exactas here as that is my normal play). Keying the favorite over the second and 3rd favorites (unless its a very large field) is usually a bad idea though

[Tom Barrister]

The only time I play a pick 3 or 4 is if I can toss out the morning line favorite in at least two of the races. It also helps if I can throw out some of the horses with the top Beyer and BRIS Prime Power numbers. A lot of people blindly include those in every leg of the pick 3 or 4, and most tickets which key a horse use a morning line favorite. There's just no value (for me) in finding one good longshot to go with two chalk-munchers. I'd rather play the longshot by itself.

[GaryG]

If a horse is a legitimate standout I will use a P4 key (my favorite bet) that I think will offer 2-1 or better. Don't care if it is the favorite or not. That allows you to open up on the other races. Don't tie yourself down with those arcane rules for finish position and recency. Solid choices come in many different kinds. Like pass interference, I can't explain it but I know it when I see it. Remember the Outback motto: No rules, just right.

[orrug2k]

FAV KEYED UNDER IN AN EXACTA ALWAYS PAYS MORE THAN IT SEEMS IT SHOULD... MAYBE IT JUST SEEMS SO BECAUSE ITHAS TO FINISH SECOND... BUT THE REALITY SHOULD BE THATITS REAL A WIN BET SINCE YOU KEYED IT SECOND...UNDER YOUR HORSES EXACTLY