Pie Publishing Test Results

[sligg]

Two month test: 11/02; 12/02

Pie Publishing is a computerized selection sheet that cost $77/month.

Best bets are the Diamond selections.

I made the assumption that if these bets show no profit, then the non-Diamond bets would show no profit.

Diamond selections cold:

Bets: 427
Won: 146; 34.2%; ROI: - 9.5%
Place: 238; 55.7%; ROI: - 4.3%
Show: 291; 68.1%; ROI: - 7.4%

Diamond selections as favorites:
Slight improvement but still negative in the three slots.

Diamond selections with top trainer factor:
Bets: 64
Won: 30; 46.9%; ROI: 19.7%

Diamond selections with the D factor:
Bets: 50
Place: 36; 75%; ROI: 22.8%

Diamond selections with the D factor and favorite:
Bets: 37
Place: 32; 86.5%; ROI: 38.2%

Above but with odds > 1:
Bets: 18
Place 17; 94.4; ROI: 79.7%

Above but with odss > 1, < 2.5:
Bets: 15
Won: 12; 80%; ROI: 104.7%
Place: 15; 100%; ROI: 80%

Diamond selections with the OTS factor as favorites:
Bets: 17
Place: 12; 70.6%; ROI: 43.2%

Diamond selections- 2 year old maidens:
Bets: 28
Won: 16; 57.1%; ROI: 59.6%

The above as favorites:
Bets: 17
Won: 13; 76.5%; ROI: 46.2%

Diamond selections-2 year old maidens with the N factor:
Bets: 23
Won: 14; 60.9%; ROI: 80.0%

There is some overlapping in these subsets. Because of the small but selective number of bets these subsets at best can only be considered spot plays.

My subscription expired and I don't know if I will continue. The above numbers are real, accurate, and a lot of work. But best of all: No handicapping was involved.

Will these results hold up? Maybe, I'll never know unless I continue but at $77/month it will cost close to $1000 per year.

This is a formidable cost to overcome betting $2 a race.

[dav4463]

Informative post, looks like the selections are fairly solid. Might be worth a subscription. What is the website?

[sligg]

www. triplediamondpix@aol.com

[dav4463]

Thanks for the site and the two months of hard work. That's the kind of info that can really help a player out and a good advertisement for the picks. I'm always looking for spot plays when I don't have enough time to handicap a card thoroughly.

[formula_2002]

sal, if you can,,

what is the sum for 1/(odds+1) for all winning and losing win plays, and what is the total for all winning win plays.

thanks

Joe M

[freeneasy]

you show a number DS with different factors
will the DS with these factors be visably identified as such. for instance:
War Emblem DS, TTF for the ds with the top trainer factor
War Emblem DS, DF for the ds with the D factor or
War Emblem DS, NF for the ds with the n factor

[sligg]

freeneasy:

Remember, I said there was no handicapping involved. Here is a typical listing:

#1 Divisional Champ ** D, OTS, sc, j

Selection has two Diamonds with four tips.

A race may be playable if it has a Diamond selection. There is never more than one Diamond horse in a race but not every race has a Diamond selection.

The Diamond horse can have one, two or three diamonds (asterisks): but the number of diamonds is not important other than it has to have at least one to be considered for a bet.

[freeneasy]

1) Then when Pie puts out a horse with a diamond it can have any number of diamonds and also have any number of various positive factors ?
2) And of all the various factors that Pie has established as positive the ones listed above are those factors that produced a + roi ?
3) About how many factors does Pie list as positive ?
4) Of these positive producing factors that showed a plus return on the dollar, where there any diamond horses that had one of these factors only with no other factors accompanying it ? In other words could they stand up by themselfs and show a profit or did they need other factors to make it a profitable play ?
5) If so, how did they produce ?
The reason I ask sligg is that with my bussiness as well as the little bit of time I spend working on (using Dave Swartzs , or however you spell that guys name, par times table) designing an irrifuteable inarguable Beyer number, Ive hardly even had a chance to mosie on out to the track the way I like to. So if I can find a nice little service, nothing complicated, I might like to do some betting via phone bets.
And if this isnt to bothersome to you I might have a few more questions as well
thx, Rich

[sligg]

freeneasy:

Answers to your questions:

1. Yes. The number of diamonds is not significant. To qualify a selection needs at least one diamond.

2. Yes, not all the factors are productive. Some of them can be eliminated because just isolating on that factor produced a loss.
For example the w factor (workout) showed a loss.

3.Pie lists eight factors.

4. No. All my subsets isolated on the factors I give in my test. They can stand alone. If there are other factors along with the main factor, they are not synergistic. It does not enhance the results.

5. Each factor in my subsets stand alone. In my spread sheet, I filtered on each of the eight factors and only the ones I show were profitable.

6. Will these subsets hold up? I don't know...you can test forever and never have 100% certainty.

[freeneasy]

thanks
Think I'll give it a look. The address you gave to dav was an email address and not the web site, so if you could chek that web site address for the web site itself I'd appreciate it.
thanks again

[sligg]

freeneasy

www.piepublishing.com